Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
August 1, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
121 lines · Updated Aug 2, 12:49 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board has 121 lines but zero projections loaded, so `top_plays` is empty and there's nothing here to bet against. Without model probabilities attached to individual players, edge calculations can't run, and picking names out of thin air isn't how this works. Worth noting for when data does populate: the Poisson methodology carries a low bias on overs, meaning any edges that surface will be slightly understated — real over value runs a tick better than reported. Thin day; check other markets.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 121 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Ewing | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Alejandro Kirk | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Angel Martinez | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Austin Riley | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +131/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Brayan Rocchio | 1.5 | +143/ −192 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 16 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Carter Jensen | 1.5 | −117/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | +148/ −198 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Christian Yelich | 1.5 | +153/ −206 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Cole Carrigg | 1.5 | +102/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Colt Keith | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +134/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | −132/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Dylan Crews | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +107/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Esmerlyn Valdez | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Francisco Lindor | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 37 | George Springer | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +151/ −202 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Gleyber Torres | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Hao-Yu Lee | 1.5 | +128/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Heliot Ramos | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Henry Bolte | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Heriberto Hernandez | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −118/ −112 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Ildemaro Vargas | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Isaac Collins | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +140/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 48 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 49 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | −145/ +109 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Jackson Merrill | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Jacob Wilson | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | −116/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 55 | James Wood | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Javier Sanoja | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Jeremy Pena | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Jo Adell | 1.5 | +113/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Jonah Heim | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Jonny Deluca | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Josh Rojas | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Kazuma Okamoto | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | −105/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Kyle Karros | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Kyle Stowers | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Lane Thomas | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Liam Hicks | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Luis Garcia Jr. | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Luis Robert Jr. | 1.5 | +154/ −207 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 | +158/ −213 | — | — | 36% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Michael Massey | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | −126/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Mike Trout | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Nick Kurtz | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Nick Loftin | 1.5 | +106/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Otto Lopez | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Rafael Devers | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Riley Greene | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | −119/ −112 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Sal Stewart | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
More for this date
Want the why behind an edge?
Ask The Almanac about a player's matchup, recent form, or pitcher arsenal in chat — same data, deeper context.