Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
August 1, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
28 lines · Updated Aug 2, 12:51 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board has 28 lines but zero projections loaded and no top plays surfaced — the model needs per-game strikeout projections to generate edges, and none are present here. Without that input, every entry is effectively ungraded. The methodology is neutral-biased and Poisson-based, so when projections do exist the math is reasonable, but right now there's nothing to act on. This slate is a pass until the projection layer is populated.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 28 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Abbott | 5.5 | +124/ −158 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Braxton Ashcraft | 6.5 | −114/ −111 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Connor Prielipp | 5.5 | −138/ +108 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 7.5 | +121/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 5 | David Peterson | 4.5 | −165/ +129 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Drew Rasmussen | 5.5 | −138/ +108 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 4.5 | −128/ +101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Perkins | 4.5 | −116/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | 6.5 | −106/ −120 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jose Soriano | 5.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Kevin Gausman | 5.5 | +107/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kohl Drake | 3.5 | −133/ +104 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Logan Gilbert | 6.5 | −103/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Luinder Avila | 3.5 | −141/ +111 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Max Fried | 5.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Miles Mikolas | 2.5 | +110/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Parker Messick | 4.5 | −158/ +124 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Payton Tolle | 5.5 | +110/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Reynaldo Lopez | 4.5 | +105/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Robert Gasser | 4.5 | −157/ +123 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Ronel Blanco | 5.5 | +121/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Ryan Feltner | 3.5 | −155/ +121 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Shane Baz | 5.5 | +106/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Tyler Mahle | 3.5 | −152/ +119 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Tyler Phillips | 3.5 | −109/ −117 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Walker Buehler | 4.5 | +113/ −144 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 6.5 | −107/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Zach Thornton | 4.5 | +120/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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