The Almanac · NFL
Football, by the week.
Weekly weather and betting lines, matchup projections, DFS lineups, and player props — plus an AI analyst that answers anything about the NFL, with every number traced to nflverse and Next Gen Stats.
This week's boards
Updated weeklyEvery game's forecast, wind, and the market spread and total — the conditions that quietly move a week's outcomes.
Weekly projections and start/sit reads: which players draw the softest defensive matchups, and the implied team totals behind them.
The optimal DraftKings lineup from projected points and salary — an exact optimizer, not a rule of thumb.
Model projections lined up against the book's prop markets, with the edge on every over/under. Projections, not picks.
Every game's final with its win-probability story, the biggest swing plays, box-score leaders, a recap, and the league standings.
Featured research
Data essaysRate-stat leaderboards regressed the right way: every completion %, EPA and catch rate shrunk toward its position prior with a 90% credible interval, so small-sample flukes don't top the board. Toggle raw vs. shrunk and see where each stat stabilizes.
NFL offenses vary wildly in how readable their run-pass tendencies are — and it doesn't cost them a thing. The decoupling of legibility from success, what aggressiveness is really worth, and the pre-snap alignment that gives an offense away.
Every team's offense as a four-stage flow — personnel to formation to run or pass to outcome — with mean EPA on every ribbon. Pick any club and read how its attack is built.