Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 3, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
24 lines · Updated Jul 3, 3:39 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board has 24 lines but zero projections loaded and no top plays surfaced — the model returned edges across an empty field. With `num_with_projection: 0`, there's nothing here to hang a read on; every line is priced without a corresponding model output to compare it against. The methodology is neutral-biased and Poisson-based, so when projections do exist the integer-line caveat (lines at exactly X.0 slightly inflate over probability) is worth keeping in mind for any strikeout total sitting on a whole number. Thin board today — no plays to flag.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 24 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Pallante | 3.5 | −149/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Anthony Kay | 4.5 | −152/ +119 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brady Singer | 5.5 | +117/ −150 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Christian Scott | 4.5 | −115/ −111 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 7.5 | −130/ +102 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Foster Griffin | 6.5 | +105/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 6.5 | +122/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | 5.5 | −109/ −117 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Grant Holmes | 4.5 | −128/ +101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Perkins | 5.5 | +122/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Bennett | 4.5 | −149/ +117 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jose Cabrera | 3.5 | −165/ +129 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Kyle Harrison | 5.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Luis Castillo | 4.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Michael King | 4.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Mike Paredes | 3.5 | +102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Mitch Keller | 3.5 | −153/ +120 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Nick Martinez | 4.5 | +127/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Reid Detmers | 6.5 | −146/ +114 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Ryan Feltner | 3.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Shohei Ohtani | 6.5 | −144/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Spencer Arrighetti | 5.5 | +107/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Trevor Rogers | 5.5 | −103/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Tyler Phillips | 4.5 | +120/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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