MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

July 3, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

13 games · 25 starters · Updated Jul 3, 3:41 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Ohtani is the headliner — 7.1 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against San Diego with a 1.58 season ERA — but nine days off is a real flag, not a formality. If you want the cleaner version of that profile, Kyle Harrison draws Arizona with no workload concerns: 6.3 Ks and 1.2 projected ER over 6.2 innings at high confidence. Foster Griffin against Pittsburgh and Reid Detmers against Boston both carry elite matchup grades with no flags, projecting 6.9 and 6.7 Ks respectively — Griffin's 2.93 ERA makes the 2.0 projected ER look reasonable. Twenty-five starters on the board, top tier projections well populated.

#1Shohei Ohtani(RHP)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Scheduled

GS
13
IP
79.7
W-L
8-2
ERA
1.58
WHIP
0.90
K/9
9.70
BB/9
2.70
K/BB
3.58

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
7.1
ER
1.5
H
4.9
HR
0.20
BB
1.8
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
20.9
Floor
4.3
Ceiling
37.5
Rest
9d
  • Extended rest (9 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Shohei Ohtani.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-246.05228089W
2026-06-176.07415091W
2026-06-106.763361102
2026-06-036.02016089W
2026-05-276.00147099W

#2Kyle Harrison(RHP)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS
15
IP
77.0
W-L
8-1
ERA
2.57
WHIP
1.03
K/9
11.20
BB/9
2.20
K/BB
5.05

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
6.3
ER
1.2
H
4.7
HR
0.20
BB
1.3
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
20.4
Floor
4.2
Ceiling
36.6
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Kyle Harrison.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.03219192
2026-06-206.34207185
2026-06-146.03003080W
2026-06-025.7412121106W
2026-05-266.04002092W

#3Trevor Rogers(RHP)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Pre-Game

GS
15
IP
79.3
W-L
5-7
ERA
4.99
WHIP
1.31
K/9
6.90
BB/9
2.70
K/BB
2.54

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
7.0
ER
2.1
H
5.3
HR
0.20
BB
1.3
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
19.6
Floor
4.0
Ceiling
35.2
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Trevor Rogers.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-266.35107087W
2026-06-207.01026096W
2026-06-146.05224082L
2026-06-095.76313197
2026-06-045.75113087W

#4Reid Detmers(RHP)

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox

Angel Stadium · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
99.7
W-L
3-5
ERA
3.97
WHIP
1.07
K/9
10.10
BB/9
2.80
K/BB
3.61

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
6.2
K
6.7
ER
1.7
H
5.0
HR
0.30
BB
2.1
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
19.5
Floor
4.0
Ceiling
35.0
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Reid Detmers.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.74238199
2026-06-216.06544090
2026-06-167.04003090W
2026-06-107.01109189
2026-06-056.02026091

#5Foster Griffin(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Nationals Park · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
98.3
W-L
8-2
ERA
2.93
WHIP
1.04
K/9
9.00
BB/9
2.30
K/BB
3.92

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
6.2
K
6.9
ER
2.0
H
5.2
HR
0.30
BB
1.7
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
19.4
Floor
4.0
Ceiling
34.8
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Foster Griffin.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-277.030290112
2026-06-227.341091105W
2026-06-166.061260100
2026-06-106.061051100
2026-06-055.02104162W

#6Dylan Cease(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners

T-Mobile Park · Scheduled

GS
15
IP
83.3
W-L
4-4
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.24
K/9
13.80
BB/9
4.30
K/BB
3.20

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
6.2
K
6.9
ER
2.6
H
5.6
HR
0.20
BB
3.9
QS%
77%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.7
Floor
3.4
Ceiling
30.0
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Dylan Cease.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-274.7445100107L
2026-06-225.732480110
2026-06-165.040470108W
2026-06-096.031111093
2026-05-244.74218276L

#7Jake Bennett(RHP)

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels

Angel Stadium · Scheduled

GS
6
IP
33.0
W-L
2-3
ERA
3.27
WHIP
1.06
K/9
6.80
BB/9
1.90
K/BB
3.57

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
5.6
K
5.7
ER
1.8
H
4.7
HR
0.20
BB
2.0
QS%
46%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.2
Floor
3.3
Ceiling
29.1
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Jake Bennett.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-276.33123187W
2026-06-226.04009072
2026-06-175.33205079L
2026-06-105.07414073L
2026-05-075.36421086L

#8Gerrit Cole(RHP)

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

Yankee Stadium · Pre-Game

GS
7
IP
37.7
W-L
2-3
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.10
BB/9
2.40
K/BB
3.40

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
5.6
K
5.3
ER
1.7
H
4.7
HR
0.30
BB
1.3
QS%
46%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.0
Floor
3.3
Ceiling
28.7
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Gerrit Cole.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.37415289L
2026-06-224.39515189L
2026-06-166.03226190W
2026-06-094.05224083
2026-06-035.36412383L

#9Andre Pallante(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field · Delayed Start

GS
16
IP
89.3
W-L
9-5
ERA
3.93
WHIP
1.24
K/9
6.90
BB/9
2.60
K/BB
2.62

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.6
K
5.6
ER
2.4
H
5.1
HR
0.20
BB
1.4
QS%
41%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.9
Floor
3.1
Ceiling
26.7
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Andre Pallante.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-276.711514098L
2026-06-226.06102085W
2026-06-167.04206092W
2026-06-106.03225193W
2026-06-035.73125085W

#10Luis Castillo(RHP)

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

T-Mobile Park · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
76.7
W-L
3-6
ERA
4.93
WHIP
1.34
K/9
8.60
BB/9
3.10
K/BB
2.81

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
5.6
K
5.0
ER
2.0
H
4.9
HR
0.40
BB
1.5
QS%
44%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.6
Floor
3.0
Ceiling
26.2
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Luis Castillo.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-266.04114091W
2026-06-194.07404063
2026-06-135.77224184L
2026-06-075.721151100
2026-05-315.02123071W

#11Gavin Williams(RHP)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

Progressive Field · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
101.7
W-L
9-4
ERA
3.81
WHIP
1.16
K/9
10.40
BB/9
3.00
K/BB
3.44

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.6
K
6.0
ER
2.9
H
5.5
HR
0.20
BB
2.2
QS%
37%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.0
Floor
2.9
Ceiling
25.1
Rest
5d
  • Chicago White Sox has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Gavin Williams.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-285.062360103
2026-06-225.05218095
2026-06-175.07724287L
2026-06-085.04335290
2026-06-035.34316296W

#12Jack Perkins(RHP)

Athletics vs Miami Marlins

Sutter Health Park · Scheduled

GS
22
IP
51.0
W-L
2-3
ERA
6.00
WHIP
1.33
K/9
10.90
BB/9
3.00
K/BB
3.65

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.1
K
5.1
ER
1.9
H
4.5
HR
0.20
BB
1.6
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.0
Floor
2.9
Ceiling
25.1
Rest
6d
  • Miami Marlins struggles against this pitch mix — arsenal matchup favors pitcher

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Jack Perkins.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.04215081
2026-06-215.04428178
2026-06-165.06326185
2026-06-104.05334289
2026-06-054.05526175L

#13Grant Holmes(RHP)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Truist Park · Pre-Game

GS
16
IP
77.3
W-L
4-4
ERA
3.96
WHIP
1.36
K/9
8.00
BB/9
4.30
K/BB
1.86

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.1
K
5.2
ER
2.6
H
5.0
HR
0.30
BB
1.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
12.7
Floor
2.6
Ceiling
22.8
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Grant Holmes.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-274.01004047
2026-06-224.73154191L
2026-06-093.74322167
2026-06-036.05224189W
2026-05-294.77315280

#14Ryan Feltner(RHP)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants

Coors Field · Pre-Game

GS
11
IP
53.0
W-L
2-2
ERA
4.42
WHIP
1.25
K/9
5.90
BB/9
3.40
K/BB
1.75

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.1
K
4.6
ER
2.2
H
4.7
HR
0.30
BB
1.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
12.4
Floor
2.6
Ceiling
22.2
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Ryan Feltner.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-286.05100182
2026-06-226.04242093
2026-06-164.762371104
2026-06-114.34633175L
2026-06-056.01124081

#15Nick Martinez(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
94.7
W-L
7-2
ERA
2.66
WHIP
1.15
K/9
5.50
BB/9
1.60
K/BB
3.41

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.4
ER
2.1
H
4.2
HR
0.20
BB
0.7
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
11.6
Floor
2.4
Ceiling
20.8
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Nick Martinez.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-265.76103185W
2026-06-216.04335188
2026-06-155.35316196
2026-06-097.06302073W
2026-06-034.09611258L

#16Mitch Keller(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
94.3
W-L
6-5
ERA
4.87
WHIP
1.30
K/9
7.00
BB/9
3.10
K/BB
2.21

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.3
ER
2.4
H
4.4
HR
0.20
BB
1.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
10.3
Floor
2.1
Ceiling
18.5
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Mitch Keller.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-286.05314079W
2026-06-236.07314292L
2026-06-165.34147196
2026-06-114.07543198L
2026-06-054.77634199L

#17Jose Cabrera(RHP)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS
2
IP
10.0
W-L
0-1
ERA
3.60
WHIP
1.20
K/9
6.30
BB/9
1.80
K/BB
3.50

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.5
ER
2.5
H
4.5
HR
0.40
BB
1.6
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
10.3
Floor
2.1
Ceiling
18.5
Rest
6d
  • low sample

Last 2 Starts

Recent starts for Jose Cabrera.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.07424280L
2026-06-215.03003062

#18Christian Scott(RHP)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Pre-Game

GS
10
IP
45.0
W-L
2-0
ERA
3.20
WHIP
1.33
K/9
10.60
BB/9
4.20
K/BB
2.52

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.8
ER
2.7
H
4.6
HR
0.10
BB
2.0
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
10.2
Floor
2.1
Ceiling
18.3
Rest
6d
  • Atlanta Braves has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Christian Scott.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-274.33226182
2026-06-114.77416388
2026-06-055.73023098W
2026-05-305.05128096W
2026-05-245.74025094

#19David Peterson(RHP)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

Wrigley Field · Delayed Start

GS
1
IP
5.7
W-L
1-0
ERA
3.18
WHIP
0.88
K/9
3.20
BB/9
0.00
K/BB
2.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.1
ER
2.5
H
4.5
HR
0.10
BB
1.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
9.7
Floor
2.0
Ceiling
17.4
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for David Peterson.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.75202169W
2026-06-214.06425179L
2026-06-153.02321154
2026-06-103.77621263
2026-05-314.01013051S

#20Brady Singer(RHP)

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles

Great American Ball Park · Pre-Game

GS
16
IP
77.3
W-L
3-7
ERA
5.12
WHIP
1.54
K/9
7.60
BB/9
2.90
K/BB
2.60

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
4.1
ER
2.3
H
4.0
HR
0.20
BB
1.1
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
9.1
Floor
1.9
Ceiling
16.3
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Brady Singer.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-284.39506298L
2026-06-227.020270106
2026-06-165.03135091W
2026-06-106.06215095
2026-06-054.04136189L

#21Tyler Phillips(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Athletics

Sutter Health Park · Scheduled

GS
22
IP
65.7
W-L
1-3
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.31
K/9
6.90
BB/9
4.10
K/BB
1.67

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.9
ER
2.2
H
3.9
HR
0.20
BB
1.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.9
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
16.0
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Tyler Phillips.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-287.36201197L
2026-06-226.05234189
2026-06-164.06834379L
2026-06-115.02025070W
2026-06-054.77333182

#22Anthony Kay(RHP)

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Progressive Field · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
80.0
W-L
6-3
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.42
K/9
7.30
BB/9
3.50
K/BB
2.10

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.5
ER
1.9
H
3.8
HR
0.20
BB
1.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.8
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
15.8
Rest
5d
  • Cleveland Guardians struggles against this pitch mix — arsenal matchup favors pitcher

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Anthony Kay.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-283.77412073L
2026-06-226.030280101
2026-06-174.06412186L
2026-06-125.04217089W
2026-06-054.07624287

#23Mike Paredes(RHP)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · Pre-Game

GS
6
IP
25.3
W-L
0-1
ERA
4.26
WHIP
1.26
K/9
4.60
BB/9
3.20
K/BB
1.44

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.8
ER
2.4
H
4.1
HR
0.20
BB
0.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.7
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
15.6
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Mike Paredes.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.38302274L
2026-06-215.06231075
2026-06-154.74202159
2026-06-103.01124058
2026-06-043.72311150

#24Spencer Arrighetti(RHP)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS
12
IP
66.0
W-L
6-4
ERA
4.23
WHIP
1.33
K/9
9.80
BB/9
4.90
K/BB
2.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.8
ER
2.3
H
4.0
HR
0.30
BB
2.3
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
7.8
Floor
1.6
Ceiling
14.0
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Spencer Arrighetti.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-263.05857393L
2026-06-206.06608390L
2026-06-146.084170101L
2026-06-086.04347095
2026-06-034.06413183

#25Michael King(RHP)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
96.3
W-L
5-7
ERA
3.55
WHIP
1.18
K/9
7.80
BB/9
3.60
K/BB
2.13

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.8
ER
2.6
H
4.2
HR
0.20
BB
1.8
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
7.4
Floor
1.5
Ceiling
13.3
Rest
5d
  • Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has a 0.347 xwOBA vs RHP — tough matchup

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael King.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-284.33445090L
2026-06-227.06005093W
2026-06-164.35331093L
2026-06-106.773332106
2026-06-056.06404293L

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