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Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 3, 2026 MLB Hits Props

234 lines · Updated Jul 3, 3:36 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

The board has 234 hits lines but no edges surfaced — `top_plays` is empty across the full slate. Worth noting the methodology runs hot: `bias_direction` is high, meaning model overs already tend to be inflated, so the absence of any plays clearing the edge threshold is a meaningful signal rather than a data gap. There are also no projections attached to any entry (`num_with_projection: 0`), which limits how much the model can separate signal from noise. Nothing here to act on today.

How we model these edges

Model method:
ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:
Reasonable
Bias direction:
Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:
model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
  • ·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
  • ·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
  • ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

0 of 234 projected
Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#PlayerLineOdds O/UProjModel %Market %EdgePickConf
1
A.J. Ewing
0.5−192/ +143——62%———
2
Adley Rutschman
0.5−260/ +191——68%———
3
Alejandro Kirk
0.5−208/ +155——63%———
4
Alex Bregman
0.5−266/ +196——68%———
5
Alika Williams
0.5−159/ +119——57%———
6
Andres Gimenez
0.5−136/ +103——54%———
7
Andrew Benintendi
0.5−171/ +129——59%———
8
Andy Pages
0.5−243/ +180——66%———
9
Anthony Seigler
0.5−136/ +102——54%———
10
Anthony Volpe
0.5−185/ +138——61%———
11
Austin Hedges
0.5−134/ +101——54%———
12
Austin Riley
0.5−155/ +117——57%———
13
Austin Wells
0.5−144/ +108——55%———
14
Ben Rice
1.5+173/ −233——34%———
15
Blaze Alexander
0.5−219/ +162——64%———
16
Blaze Jordan
0.5−211/ +157——64%———
17
Bo Bichette
1.5+189/ −257——32%———
18
Braden Montgomery
0.5−174/ +130——59%———
19
Brandon Lowe
0.5−193/ +144——62%———
20
Brayan Rocchio
0.5−247/ +182——67%———
21
Brett Baty
0.5−137/ +103——54%———
22
Brice Turang
0.5−252/ +186——67%———
23
Brooks Lee
0.5−228/ +169——65%———
24
Bryan Reynolds
0.5−255/ +188——67%———
25
Bryce Eldridge
1.5+185/ −251——33%———
26
CJ Abrams
0.5−278/ +204——69%———
27
Cal Raleigh
0.5−120/ −110——51%———
28
Caleb Durbin
0.5−187/ +140——61%———
29
Cam Smith
0.5−213/ +158——64%———
30
Carson Benge
0.5−238/ +176——66%———
31
Casey Schmitt
1.5+128/ −171——41%———
32
Ceddanne Rafaela
0.5−224/ +166——65%———
33
Cedric Mullins
0.5−151/ +113——56%———
34
Chandler Simpson
0.5−257/ +190——68%———
35
Chase DeLauter
0.5−246/ +181——67%———
36
Chase Meidroth
0.5−167/ +125——58%———
37
Christian Walker
0.5−202/ +150——63%———
38
Christian Yelich
0.5−248/ +183——67%———
39
Cody Bellinger
0.5−272/ +200——69%———
40
Colby Thomas
0.5−195/ +146——62%———
41
Cole Carrigg
0.5−245/ +181——67%———
42
Cole Young
0.5−127/ −105——52%———
43
Colson Montgomery
0.5−131/ −101——53%———
44
Colt Emerson
0.5+104/ −138——46%———
45
Colton Cowser
0.5−162/ +122——58%———
46
Connor Wong
0.5−115/ −115——50%———
47
Cooper Pratt
0.5−163/ +122——58%———
48
Corbin Carroll
0.5−233/ +173——66%———
49
Curtis Mead
0.5−226/ +168——65%———
50
Dalton Rushing
0.5−130/ −102——53%———
51
Dansby Swanson
0.5−179/ +134——60%———
52
Daulton Varsho
0.5−190/ +142——61%———
53
David Fry
0.5−142/ +107——55%———
54
David Hamilton
0.5−145/ +109——55%———
55
Daylen Lile
1.5+204/ −278——31%———
56
Denzer Guzman
0.5−203/ +152——63%———
57
Dominic Canzone
0.5−141/ +106——55%———
58
Dominic Smith
0.5−180/ +135——60%———
59
Drake Baldwin
0.5−253/ +186——67%———
60
Drew Cavanaugh
0.5−216/ +160——64%———
61
Dylan Beavers
0.5−195/ +145——62%———
62
Dylan Crews
0.5−233/ +173——66%———
63
Edwin Arroyo
0.5−161/ +121——58%———
64
Elly De La Cruz
1.5+201/ −274——31%———
65
Ernie Clement
0.5−228/ +169——65%———
66
Esmerlyn Valdez
0.5−219/ +162——64%———
67
Eugenio Suarez
0.5−178/ +133——60%———
68
Ezequiel Tovar
0.5−191/ +143——61%———
69
Fernando Tatis Jr.
0.5−209/ +156——63%———
70
Francisco Alvarez
0.5−158/ +119——57%———
71
Francisco Lindor
0.5−209/ +155——63%———
72
Freddie Freeman
0.5−209/ +156——63%———
73
Gabriel Arias
0.5−162/ +122——58%———
74
Gabriel Moreno
0.5−173/ +130——59%———
75
Garrett Mitchell
0.5−175/ +131——60%———
76
Gavin Sheets
0.5−114/ −117——50%———
77
Geraldo Perdomo
0.5−203/ +151——63%———
78
Griffin Conine
0.5−192/ +143——62%———
79
Gunnar Henderson
1.5+181/ −245——33%———
80
Heliot Ramos
1.5+160/ −215——36%———
81
Henry Bolte
1.5+168/ −227——35%———
82
Henry Davis
0.5−129/ −103——53%———
83
Hunter Feduccia
0.5+112/ −148——44%———
84
Hunter Goodman
1.5+192/ −261——32%———
85
Ian Happ
0.5−211/ +157——64%———
86
Ildemaro Vargas
0.5−166/ +125——58%———
87
Isaac Paredes
0.5−189/ +142——61%———
88
Ivan Herrera
1.5+164/ −221——35%———
89
J.P. Crawford
0.5−144/ +109——55%———
90
JJ Bleday
0.5−193/ +144——62%———
91
JJ Wetherholt
1.5+188/ −256——33%———
92
Jackson Chourio
1.5+154/ −207——37%———
93
Jackson Holliday
0.5−168/ +126——59%———
94
Jackson Merrill
0.5−148/ +111——56%———
95
Jacob Gonzalez
0.5−140/ +105——54%———
96
Jacob Young
0.5−187/ +140——61%———
97
Jake Bauers
0.5−197/ +147——62%———
98
Jake Cronenworth
0.5−141/ +106——55%———
99
Jake Mangum
0.5−254/ +187——67%———
100
Jake McCarthy
1.5+168/ −226——35%———

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