Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 6, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
119 lines · Updated Jun 6, 3:48 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board has 119 lines but no top plays surfaced — every edge either fell below threshold or the model couldn't generate one with zero projection coverage. Worth noting the Poisson methodology runs biased low on overs here, meaning any edge that *did* clear the bar would read slightly better in reality than the number suggests, but there's nothing to apply that to today. With `num_with_projection` at zero, the model is essentially flying blind on player context. Thin slate to trust mechanically — if you're playing TB overs today, you're leaning on your own read, not this board.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 119 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Adrian Del Castillo | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Amed Rosario | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Andrew Benintendi | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Austin Martin | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | −132/ −101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Bryson Stott | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 20 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Cam Smith | 1.5 | +150/ −201 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Carlos Cortes | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Chase Meidroth | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +108/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Christian Yelich | 1.5 | −120/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Cole Young | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Colson Montgomery | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | −128/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Curtis Mead | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Dane Myers | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 35 | David Hamilton | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Dylan Crews | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +155/ −208 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Eugenio Suarez | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +102/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Garrett Mitchell | 1.5 | −109/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 45 | George Springer | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +101/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 49 | J.P. Crawford | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 50 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 51 | JJ Bleday | 1.5 | +140/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 52 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Jackson Chourio | 2.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Jacob Gonzalez | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Jake Bauers | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 58 | James Wood | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Jarren Duran | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Jeremy Pena | 1.5 | +113/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jose Altuve | 1.5 | +152/ −204 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | −104/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | −127/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Luis Rengifo | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Luke Raley | 1.5 | +120/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Masyn Winn | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +115/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +113/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Nelson Velazquez | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Nick Kurtz | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Nico Hoerner | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Nolan Arenado | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Otto Lopez | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +120/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Pavin Smith | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 | +143/ −192 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Sal Frelick | 1.5 | +102/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Sal Stewart | 1.5 | +101/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
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