Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

June 6, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props

25 lines · Updated Jun 17, 7:50 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

The board has 25 lines but zero projections loaded and no top plays surfaced — the model didn't produce per-pitcher K estimates, so edge calculations couldn't run. There's nothing here to build a read around. Check the individual lines below for raw over/under prices, but treat them as ungraded until projections populate. Thin slate to work with today.

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*Wait — per the accuracy rules, I cannot tell readers to "check back" or imply the projections will populate later. Let me redo this.*

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25 lines on the board, zero pitcher projections attached, and `top_plays` came back empty — the model didn't produce K estimates for today's starters, so no edges were calculated. The raw lines are in the table below, but without model probabilities behind them, there's no quantified edge to act on. The board is thin in the only way that matters.

How we model these edges

Model method:
poisson_per_game
Approximation quality:
Reasonable
Bias direction:
No systematic bias in either direction.
Edge definition:
model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
  • ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.

Strikeouts Board

0 of 25 projected
Strikeouts prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#PlayerLineOdds O/UProjModel %Market %EdgePickConf
1
Andrew Painter
4.5+133/ −17041%
2
Ben Brown
5.5−102/ −12548%
3
Braxton Ashcraft
5.5−103/ −12448%
4
Bryce Miller
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers
4.5−140/ +11055%
5
Eduardo Rodriguez
4.5+104/ −13246%
6
Griffin Canning
4.5−116/ −11051%
7
Jack Kochanowicz
3.5+132/ −17041%
8
Jack Leiter
5.5−102/ −12448%
9
Jacob Misiorowski
8.5+103/ −13146%
10
Joe Ryan
6.5+114/ −14644%
11
Keider Montero
4.5+130/ −16641%
12
Kyle Bradish
4.5−159/ +12458%
13
Landen Roupp
5.5+122/ −15742%
14
Luinder Avila
3.5−118/ −10851%
15
Matthew Liberatore
5.5+128/ −16341%
16
Nick Lodolo
4.5−143/ +11256%
17
Nolan McLean
5.5−134/ +10554%
18
Ranger Suarez
5.5+126/ −16142%
19
Shane McClanahan
5.5+116/ −14844%
20
Spencer Strider
6.5+102/ −13147%
21
Tanner Bibee
4.5−160/ +12558%
22
Tatsuya Imai
4.5−143/ +11256%
23
Will Warren
5.5+121/ −15543%
24
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
7.5+121/ −15443%
25
Zack Littell
3.5+134/ −17240%

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