Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

June 6, 2026 MLB Hits Props

259 lines · Updated Jun 6, 3:45 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

The board is thin today — 259 lines are priced, but the model surfaced zero top plays and no projections loaded for any entry, so there's nothing here worth forcing. Worth noting the methodology carries a high bias flag, meaning any overs the model liked would already be running hot and need extra skepticism before acting. With `num_with_projection` at zero, the edge calculation is effectively working blind. Check back once the projection layer populates; until then, the hits market on DraftKings is a skip.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

0 of 259 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	A.J. Ewing	0.5	−155/ +117	—	—	57%	—	—	—
2	Adam Frazier	0.5	−113/ −118	—	—	50%	—	—	—
3	Adley Rutschman	0.5	−215/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
4	Adolis Garcia	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
5	Adrian Del Castillo	0.5	−184/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
6	Alec Bohm	0.5	−249/ +184	—	—	67%	—	—	—
7	Alec Burleson	1.5	+190/ −258	—	—	32%	—	—	—
8	Alex Bregman	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
9	Alex Call	0.5	−161/ +121	—	—	58%	—	—	—
10	Alex Freeland	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—
11	Amed Rosario	0.5	−234/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
12	Andres Gimenez	0.5	−153/ +115	—	—	57%	—	—	—
13	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	−234/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
14	Andrés Chaparro	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—
15	Andy Pages	1.5	+163/ −220	—	—	36%	—	—	—
16	Angel Martinez	0.5	−177/ +133	—	—	60%	—	—	—
17	Anthony Volpe	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
18	Austin Martin	0.5	−256/ +189	—	—	68%	—	—	—
19	Austin Riley	0.5	−159/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
20	Austin Wells	0.5	−132/ −101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
21	Ben Rice	0.5	−231/ +171	—	—	65%	—	—	—
22	Bo Bichette	1.5	+178/ −240	—	—	34%	—	—	—
23	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.5	−240/ +178	—	—	66%	—	—	—
24	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−184/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
25	Brandon Marsh	0.5	−240/ +177	—	—	66%	—	—	—
26	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	−183/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
27	Brandon Valenzuela	0.5	−121/ −110	—	—	51%	—	—	—
28	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	−139/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
29	Brent Rooker	0.5	−208/ +155	—	—	63%	—	—	—
30	Brett Baty	0.5	−152/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
31	Brice Turang	1.5	+124/ −165	—	—	42%	—	—	—
32	Brooks Lee	0.5	−237/ +176	—	—	66%	—	—	—
33	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−200/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
34	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	−136/ +103	—	—	54%	—	—	—
35	Bryce Harper	0.5	−246/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
36	Bryce Johnson	0.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
37	Bryson Stott	0.5	−233/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
38	CJ Abrams	0.5	−221/ +164	—	—	65%	—	—	—
39	Caleb Durbin	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
40	Cam Smith	0.5	−200/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
41	Carlos Cortes	0.5	−235/ +174	—	—	66%	—	—	—
42	Carson Benge	0.5	−196/ +146	—	—	62%	—	—	—
43	Carson Kelly	0.5	−173/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
44	Carter Jensen	0.5	−172/ +129	—	—	59%	—	—	—
45	Casey Schmitt	0.5	−208/ +155	—	—	63%	—	—	—
46	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	−222/ +165	—	—	65%	—	—	—
47	Cedric Mullins	0.5	−160/ +120	—	—	58%	—	—	—
48	Chase DeLauter	0.5	−193/ +144	—	—	62%	—	—	—
49	Chase Meidroth	0.5	−243/ +179	—	—	66%	—	—	—
50	Christian Vazquez	0.5	−141/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
51	Christian Walker	0.5	−231/ +171	—	—	65%	—	—	—
52	Christian Yelich	1.5	+141/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
53	Christopher Morel	0.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
54	Coby Mayo	0.5	−120/ −111	—	—	51%	—	—	—
55	Cody Bellinger	0.5	−241/ +178	—	—	66%	—	—	—
56	Cole Young	0.5	−209/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
57	Colson Montgomery	0.5	−214/ +159	—	—	64%	—	—	—
58	Colt Emerson	0.5	−191/ +143	—	—	61%	—	—	—
59	Colton Cowser	0.5	−125/ −106	—	—	52%	—	—	—
60	Connor Norby	0.5	−129/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
61	Corbin Carroll	1.5	+160/ −215	—	—	36%	—	—	—
62	Corey Seager	0.5	−215/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
63	Curtis Mead	0.5	−238/ +176	—	—	66%	—	—	—
64	Dane Myers	0.5	−235/ +174	—	—	66%	—	—	—
65	Daniel Schneemann	0.5	−133/ +101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
66	Danny Jansen	0.5	−117/ −113	—	—	50%	—	—	—
67	Dansby Swanson	0.5	−125/ −106	—	—	52%	—	—	—
68	Darell Hernaiz	0.5	−156/ +118	—	—	57%	—	—	—
69	David Hamilton	0.5	−260/ +191	—	—	68%	—	—	—
70	Daylen Lile	0.5	−234/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
71	Dominic Canzone	0.5	−168/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
72	Dominic Smith	0.5	−166/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
73	Donovan Walton	0.5	−135/ +101	—	—	54%	—	—	—
74	Drew Gilbert	0.5	−103/ −129	—	—	47%	—	—	—
75	Drew Romo	0.5	−157/ +118	—	—	57%	—	—	—
76	Dylan Crews	0.5	−234/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
77	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−155/ +117	—	—	57%	—	—	—
78	Eric Haase	0.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
79	Ernie Clement	0.5	−232/ +172	—	—	66%	—	—	—
80	Esteury Ruiz	0.5	−114/ −117	—	—	50%	—	—	—
81	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	−200/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
82	Evan Carter	0.5	−104/ −127	—	—	48%	—	—	—
83	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	−166/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
84	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	−205/ +152	—	—	63%	—	—	—
85	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	−245/ +181	—	—	67%	—	—	—
86	Freddie Freeman	1.5	+175/ −237	—	—	34%	—	—	—
87	Freddy Fermin	0.5	−136/ +103	—	—	54%	—	—	—
88	Gabriel Moreno	1.5	+202/ −276	—	—	31%	—	—	—
89	Garrett Mitchell	1.5	+174/ −235	—	—	34%	—	—	—
90	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−172/ +129	—	—	59%	—	—	—
91	George Springer	0.5	−247/ +183	—	—	67%	—	—	—
92	Geraldo Perdomo	0.5	−205/ +152	—	—	63%	—	—	—
93	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	−234/ +174	—	—	66%	—	—	—
94	Hayden Senger	0.5	−101/ −132	—	—	47%	—	—	—
95	Henry Bolte	0.5	−178/ +133	—	—	60%	—	—	—
96	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	−166/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
97	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	+108/ −143	—	—	45%	—	—	—
98	Hunter Goodman	0.5	−228/ +169	—	—	65%	—	—	—
99	Ian Happ	0.5	−150/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
100	Isaac Collins	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—

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