Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 4, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
63 lines · 12 projected · Updated Jul 5, 3:29 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Luis Garcia Jr. is the loudest number on the board — 33.93% edge over 1.5 TB with an 82.6% model probability and a 3.18 projection. James Wood sits right behind him at 30.79% edge, 78.4% probability, 2.89 projection, same line. Keep in mind the Poisson bias runs low here, so both reads are likely a touch conservative on the over. Esmerlyn Valdez at 26.61% edge is the third name worth attention if you're building depth. The board has 63 lines but only 12 with projections, so everything below the top cluster is flying blind.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
12 of 63 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis Garcia Jr. Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | 3.18 | 83% | 49% | +33.9 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | James Wood Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | 2.89 | 78% | 48% | +30.8 pp | Over | High |
| 3 | Esmerlyn Valdez Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −105/ −127 | 2.66 | 74% | 48% | +26.6 pp | Over | Med |
| 4 | Dylan Crews Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | +131/ −174 | 2.02 | 60% | 41% | +19.4 pp | Over | Med |
| 5 | Daylen Lile Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | 1.94 | 58% | 42% | +16.2 pp | Over | High |
| 6 | Konnor Griffin Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −120/ −110 | 2.31 | 67% | 51% | +16.1 pp | Over | High |
| 7 | Bryan Reynolds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | 2.10 | 62% | 46% | +15.9 pp | Over | High |
| 8 | Ryan O'Hearn Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −103/ −129 | 2.03 | 60% | 47% | +12.8 pp | Over | High |
| 9 | Brandon Lowe Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −110/ −120 | 1.90 | 57% | 49% | +7.6 pp | Over | High |
| 10 | CJ Abrams Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | 1.55 | 46% | 43% | +2.6 pp | Over | High |
| 11 | Nick Gonzales Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | 1.37 | 40% | 44% | −3.9 pp | Under | High |
| 12 | Jake Mangum Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | 0.96 | 25% | 45% | −20.0 pp | Under | Med |
| 13 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | −127/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Brayan Rocchio | 1.5 | +154/ −207 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +158/ −212 | — | — | 36% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Chase Meidroth | 1.5 | +160/ −215 | — | — | 36% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +109/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Dominic Canzone | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Eugenio Suarez | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 30 | JJ Bleday | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Jasson Domínguez | 1.5 | +106/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Kerry Carpenter | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +151/ −202 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Randal Grichuk | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Riley Greene | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Royce Lewis | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Sal Stewart | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Samuel Basallo | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Taylor Ward | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Travis Bazzana | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Trent Grisham | 1.5 | −106/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Trevor Larnach | 1.5 | +142/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Yandy Diaz | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Yordan Alvarez | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
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