Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 4, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
14 lines · 1 projected · Updated Jul 4, 1:26 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Coverage is thin here — only one of 14 lines carries a projection, so treat this board accordingly. That one play is Ashcraft under 5.5 Ks, where the model sits at 5.9 projected strikeouts but prices the over at 53.8% against a no-vig implied of roughly 57.3%, producing a 3.52-point edge toward the under. The logic: a 5.9 mean through a Poisson distribution still leaves meaningful probability mass below 6, and the market is overpaying for the over. With the methodology flagged as neutral and no half-point quirks in play at 5.5, the read is clean — just limited to one name.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
1 of 14 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braxton Ashcraft Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 5.5 | −155/ +121 | 5.9 | 54% | 57% | −3.5 pp | Under | High |
| 2 | Brandon Young | 4.5 | −131/ +103 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 7.5 | −104/ −122 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | 5.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Hunter Brown | 6.5 | +124/ −158 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Hunter Greene | 6.5 | −133/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Flaherty | 5.5 | −129/ +101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Kumar Rocker | 4.5 | −158/ +124 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Logan Gilbert | 5.5 | +106/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Parker Messick | 6.5 | −103/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Sean Burke | 5.5 | −118/ −108 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Sean Manaea | 4.5 | −124/ −103 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Shane Bieber | 4.5 | −155/ +121 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Zebby Matthews | 4.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
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