Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 7, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
39 lines · 16 projected · Updated Jul 22, 6:08 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Harper and Schwarber sit atop the board with edges of 34.59 and 34.27 points respectively, both projecting well clear of their 1.5-line — Harper at 2.87 total bases, Schwarber at 3.08. The Poisson model's low bias means those edges are likely understated, so the real over probabilities (78% and 81%) are probably a touch better than reported. Miguel Vargas at a 28.25-point edge and Brandon Marsh at 27.12 round out a surprisingly deep Phillies-and-friends cluster — four of the top five plays share a projection above 2.3. Colson Montgomery is the name to watch further down; 26.29 points of edge at 1.5 is hard to ignore.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
16 of 39 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | 2.87 | 78% | 43% | +34.6 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | 3.08 | 81% | 47% | +34.3 pp | Over | High |
| 3 | Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | 2.53 | 72% | 43% | +29.0 pp | Over | Med |
| 4 | Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | 2.45 | 70% | 42% | +28.3 pp | Over | High |
| 5 | Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | 2.37 | 69% | 41% | +27.1 pp | Over | High |
| 6 | Colson Montgomery Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | 2.34 | 68% | 42% | +26.3 pp | Over | High |
| 7 | Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +122/ −163 | 1.88 | 56% | 42% | +14.0 pp | Over | Med |
| 8 | Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | −116/ −114 | 2.16 | 64% | 50% | +13.4 pp | Over | High |
| 9 | Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | 1.79 | 53% | 41% | +12.2 pp | Over | High |
| 10 | Bryson Stott Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | 1.68 | 50% | 39% | +11.4 pp | Over | High |
| 11 | Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | 1.54 | 46% | 39% | +6.3 pp | Over | High |
| 12 | Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | 1.65 | 49% | 43% | +5.9 pp | Over | High |
| 13 | Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | 1.66 | 49% | 46% | +3.8 pp | Over | High |
| 14 | Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +160/ −215 | 1.31 | 38% | 36% | +1.6 pp | Over | High |
| 15 | Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | 1.33 | 38% | 39% | −0.8 pp | Under | High |
| 16 | Justin Crawford Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | 1.05 | 28% | 38% | −9.8 pp | Under | Med |
| 17 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Amed Rosario | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 24 | George Springer | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Jake Mangum | 1.5 | +156/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +137/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 | +137/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Spencer Horwitz | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Trent Grisham | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
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