Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

June 7, 2026 MLB Hits Props

72 lines · 27 projected · Updated Jul 22, 6:03 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

The two cleanest edges on a 72-line board belong to the Phillies: Schwarber at 10.72 points of edge with a 0.755 model probability, and Harper right behind at 10.39 with 0.769 — both projecting between 1.36 and 1.37 hits. Marsh adds another high-confidence Philly line at 8.61 edge and a 1.32 projection, so the stack is hard to ignore. Worth noting: the model runs hot on overs (bias_direction: high), so those probabilities shade a touch generous. Seigler's 13.63-point edge leads the board raw, but confidence is flagged low — treat it accordingly.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

27 of 72 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Anthony Seigler Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	+100/ −132	0.89	60%	47%	+13.6 pp	Over	Low
2	Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−224/ +166	1.36	76%	65%	+10.7 pp	Over	High
3	Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−244/ +180	1.37	77%	67%	+10.4 pp	Over	High
4	Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−252/ +186	1.32	76%	67%	+8.6 pp	Over	High
5	Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−258/ +190	1.22	73%	68%	+5.0 pp	Over	High
6	Adolis Garcia Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−176/ +132	0.99	64%	60%	+4.1 pp	Over	High
7	Colson Montgomery Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−196/ +146	1.06	65%	62%	+3.4 pp	Over	High
8	Jacob Gonzalez Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−199/ +148	1.01	66%	62%	+3.3 pp	Over	Low
9	Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−258/ +190	1.19	71%	68%	+3.2 pp	Over	Med
10	Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−214/ +159	1.10	65%	64%	+1.5 pp	Over	High
11	Bryson Stott Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−219/ +162	1.09	66%	64%	+1.4 pp	Over	High
12	Rafael Marchan Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−176/ +132	0.92	60%	60%	+0.6 pp	Over	Med
13	Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−232/ +172	1.07	65%	66%	−0.4 pp	Under	Med
14	Tristan Peters Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−170/ +127	0.86	57%	59%	−1.6 pp	Under	Med
15	Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−201/ +150	0.85	60%	63%	−2.6 pp	Under	High
16	Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	1.5	+144/ −192	1.25	36%	38%	−2.8 pp	Under	High
17	Mickey Gasper Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−137/ +103	0.74	51%	54%	−2.9 pp	Under	Med
18	Rikuu Nishida Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−125/ −106	0.69	49%	52%	−3.0 pp	Under	Low
19	Marcelo Mayer Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−106/ −125	0.56	45%	48%	−3.6 pp	Under	Med
20	Justin Crawford Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox	0.5	−227/ +169	0.87	59%	65%	−6.2 pp	Under	Med
21	Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−226/ +167	0.90	58%	65%	−7.1 pp	Under	High
22	Masataka Yoshida Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−205/ +153	0.78	56%	63%	−7.4 pp	Under	Med
23	Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−226/ +168	0.82	56%	65%	−9.0 pp	Under	High
24	Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−221/ +164	0.79	55%	65%	−9.2 pp	Under	High
25	Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−209/ +156	0.81	52%	63%	−11.0 pp	Under	High
26	Caleb Durbin Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees	0.5	−194/ +145	0.65	50%	62%	−11.4 pp	Under	Med
27	Drew Romo Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−148/ +111	0.57	40%	56%	−16.1 pp	Under	Med
28	Adley Rutschman	0.5	−206/ +153	—	—	63%	—	—	—
29	Amed Rosario	0.5	−236/ +175	—	—	66%	—	—	—
30	Andres Gimenez	0.5	−145/ +109	—	—	55%	—	—	—
31	Anthony Volpe	0.5	−175/ +131	—	—	60%	—	—	—
32	Austin Riley	0.5	−182/ +136	—	—	60%	—	—	—
33	Ben Rice	0.5	−249/ +184	—	—	67%	—	—	—
34	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−220/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
35	Brandon Valenzuela	0.5	−139/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
36	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−248/ +183	—	—	67%	—	—	—
37	Coby Mayo	0.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
38	Cody Bellinger	0.5	−251/ +185	—	—	67%	—	—	—
39	Colton Cowser	0.5	−115/ −116	—	—	50%	—	—	—
40	Daulton Varsho	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
41	Dominic Smith	0.5	−186/ +139	—	—	61%	—	—	—
42	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−187/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
43	Ernie Clement	0.5	−266/ +196	—	—	68%	—	—	—
44	George Springer	0.5	−237/ +176	—	—	66%	—	—	—
45	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	−219/ +162	—	—	64%	—	—	—
46	J.C. Escarra	0.5	−116/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
47	Jackson Holliday	0.5	−132/ +100	—	—	53%	—	—	—
48	Jake Mangum	0.5	−239/ +177	—	—	66%	—	—	—
49	Jared Triolo	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
50	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—
51	Jesus Sanchez	0.5	−163/ +122	—	—	58%	—	—	—
52	Jose Caballero	0.5	−135/ +102	—	—	54%	—	—	—
53	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	−151/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
54	Leody Taveras	0.5	−171/ +128	—	—	59%	—	—	—
55	Matt Olson	0.5	−225/ +167	—	—	65%	—	—	—
56	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	−232/ +172	—	—	66%	—	—	—
57	Michael Harris II	1.5	+202/ −275	—	—	31%	—	—	—
58	Mike Yastrzemski	0.5	−127/ −104	—	—	52%	—	—	—
59	Nathan Lukes	0.5	−213/ +158	—	—	64%	—	—	—
60	Nick Gonzales	0.5	−237/ +175	—	—	66%	—	—	—
61	Oneil Cruz	0.5	−164/ +123	—	—	58%	—	—	—
62	Ozzie Albies	0.5	−221/ +164	—	—	65%	—	—	—
63	Paul Goldschmidt	0.5	−267/ +196	—	—	68%	—	—	—
64	Pete Alonso	0.5	−210/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
65	Ronald Acuna Jr.	1.5	+201/ −273	—	—	31%	—	—	—
66	Ryan O'Hearn	0.5	−224/ +166	—	—	65%	—	—	—
67	Samuel Basallo	0.5	−182/ +136	—	—	60%	—	—	—
68	Sandy León	0.5	+132/ −177	—	—	40%	—	—	—
69	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	−231/ +171	—	—	65%	—	—	—
70	Taylor Ward	0.5	−166/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
71	Trent Grisham	0.5	−197/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
72	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.5	−251/ +185	—	—	67%	—	—	—

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