Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 7, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
7 lines · 2 projected · Updated Jul 22, 6:07 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Only two of seven lines carry projections today, so the board is thin. The cleaner read is Aaron Nola under 5.5 Ks — model sits him at 5.3 projected, putting the under edge at 3.96 points, the largest on the board. Cam Schlittler over 6.5 is the counter-argument: 1.65-point edge, projection at 6.4, so the model barely misses the line and confidence stays medium. Both plays are Poisson-derived against integer-adjacent lines, and with the methodology flagged neutral there's no systematic thumb on the scale — these are just modest edges on a sparse slate.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
2 of 7 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Schlittler New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | 6.5 | +114/ −145 | 6.4 | 46% | 44% | +1.6 pp | Over | Med |
| 2 | Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 5.5 | −102/ −125 | 5.3 | 44% | 48% | −4.0 pp | Under | Med |
| 3 | Bryce Elder | 4.5 | −158/ +123 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Bubba Chandler | 4.5 | −125/ −102 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Kevin Gausman | 6.5 | +107/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ranger Suarez | 5.5 | +122/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Shane Baz | 4.5 | −145/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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