Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 1, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
26 lines · 2 projected · Updated Jul 1, 3:20 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Only two of the 26 lines here have model projections backing them, so treat this board as thin. Dean Kremer over 5.5 Ks carries a 2.61% edge with a projection of 5.6 — real but marginal, and confidence is flagged low. The stronger signal is MacKenzie Gore under 6.5, where the model projects 6.3 Ks and the edge sits at 4.99% in favor of the under — that's the cleanest number on the board today. Both plays use Poisson per-game modeling, which is reasonable but not the sharpest tool for strikeout tails; the methodology is neutral, so no directional bias inflates either read.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
2 of 26 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dean Kremer vs Chicago White Sox | 5.5 | +104/ −133 | 5.6 | 49% | 46% | +2.6 pp | Over | Low |
| 2 | MacKenzie Gore vs Cleveland Guardians | 6.5 | −109/ −117 | 6.3 | 44% | 49% | −5.0 pp | Under | High |
| 3 | Andrew Abbott | 4.5 | +133/ −171 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Andrew Alvarez | 4.5 | −116/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Colin Rea | 3.5 | −138/ +108 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Freddy Peralta | 4.5 | −128/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 7 | JT Ginn | 4.5 | +108/ −137 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Joey Cantillo | 5.5 | −106/ −120 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Kyle Freeland | 3.5 | −149/ +117 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Max Meyer | 6.5 | +121/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Michael McGreevy | 3.5 | +120/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Noah Schultz | 3.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Paul Skenes | 7.5 | +103/ −131 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Payton Tolle | 5.5 | −121/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Reynaldo Lopez | 3.5 | +111/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Seth Lugo | 3.5 | −147/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Shane Drohan | 5.5 | +116/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Shane McClanahan | 4.5 | −101/ −127 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Taj Bradley | 5.5 | −138/ +108 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Tatsuya Imai | 6.5 | +124/ −158 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Trevor McDonald | 3.5 | −102/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Troy Melton | 4.5 | −127/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Walker Buehler | 3.5 | −161/ +126 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Will Warren | 5.5 | −127/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Zac Gallen | 3.5 | −126/ −101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Zack Wheeler | 7.5 | +114/ −145 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
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