Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 1, 2026 MLB Hits Props

251 lines · 18 projected · Updated Jul 2, 5:25 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Miguel Vargas is the clearest number on the board — 4.44 points of edge on the 1.5-hit over, with the model at 36.9% on a line the market is pricing closer to 32.5%. That's the widest gap in the top plays by a full half-point of edge. Jacob Gonzalez follows at 3.99 points on the 0.5-hit over, projecting 1.08 hits with a 67% model probability. Worth noting: the methodology flags a high bias direction, meaning these over probabilities may run slightly hot — Vargas and Gonzalez still lead cleanly, but keep that overshoot tendency in mind before sizing up.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

18 of 251 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	1.5	+189/ −257	1.30	37%	32%	+4.4 pp	Over	High
2	Jacob Gonzalez Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−206/ +153	1.08	67%	63%	+4.0 pp	Over	Med
3	Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−244/ +180	1.10	69%	67%	+2.9 pp	Over	High
4	Austin Hedges Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−107/ −124	0.71	50%	48%	+2.0 pp	Over	Med
5	Tristan Peters Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−208/ +155	1.08	64%	63%	+1.1 pp	Over	High
6	Gabriel Arias Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−121/ −109	0.75	52%	51%	+0.7 pp	Over	Med
7	Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	1.5	+173/ −233	1.25	34%	34%	−0.6 pp	Under	High
8	Kahlil Watson Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−160/ +120	0.83	57%	58%	−0.7 pp	Under	Low
9	Braden Montgomery Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−221/ +164	0.96	63%	65%	−1.5 pp	Under	Low
10	Luisangel Acuna Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−173/ +130	0.82	55%	59%	−3.9 pp	Under	Med
11	David Fry Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−148/ +111	0.61	48%	56%	−7.6 pp	Under	Med
12	Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−219/ +162	0.83	55%	64%	−9.5 pp	Under	High
13	Daniel Schneemann Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−129/ −103	0.58	43%	53%	−9.6 pp	Under	High
14	Rhys Hoskins Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−133/ +100	0.59	42%	53%	−11.7 pp	Under	High
15	Kyle Manzardo Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−172/ +129	0.62	47%	59%	−12.1 pp	Under	High
16	Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−240/ +178	0.75	53%	66%	−12.8 pp	Under	High
17	Brayan Rocchio Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers	0.5	−205/ +153	0.63	47%	63%	−15.8 pp	Under	High
18	Drew Romo Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	0.5	−170/ +128	0.34	29%	59%	−30.0 pp	Under	Med
19	A.J. Ewing	0.5	−205/ +153	—	—	63%	—	—	—
20	Adley Rutschman	1.5	+181/ −245	—	—	33%	—	—	—
21	Alec Bohm	0.5	−200/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
22	Alec Burleson	0.5	−246/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
23	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	−185/ +139	—	—	61%	—	—	—
24	Alejandro Osuna	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—
25	Alex Bregman	1.5	+182/ −247	—	—	33%	—	—	—
26	Alex Freeland	0.5	−131/ −101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
27	Alika Williams	0.5	−131/ −102	—	—	53%	—	—	—
28	Andres Gimenez	0.5	−125/ −106	—	—	52%	—	—	—
29	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	−169/ +127	—	—	59%	—	—	—
30	Andrés Chaparro	0.5	−159/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
31	Andy Pages	1.5	+185/ −251	—	—	33%	—	—	—
32	Anthony Volpe	0.5	−171/ +128	—	—	59%	—	—	—
33	Austin Riley	0.5	−201/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
34	Austin Wells	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
35	Ben Rice	1.5	+191/ −259	—	—	32%	—	—	—
36	Blake Perkins	0.5	−150/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
37	Blaze Alexander	0.5	−226/ +168	—	—	65%	—	—	—
38	Blaze Jordan	0.5	−188/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
39	Bo Bichette	1.5	+154/ −207	—	—	37%	—	—	—
40	Bobby Witt Jr.	1.5	+134/ −179	—	—	40%	—	—	—
41	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−193/ +144	—	—	62%	—	—	—
42	Brandon Marsh	0.5	−184/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
43	Brett Baty	0.5	−147/ +111	—	—	56%	—	—	—
44	Brice Turang	0.5	−199/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
45	Brooks Lee	0.5	−210/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
46	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
47	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	−230/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
48	Bryce Harper	0.5	−190/ +142	—	—	61%	—	—	—
49	Bryson Stott	0.5	−170/ +127	—	—	59%	—	—	—
50	CJ Abrams	1.5	+194/ −264	—	—	32%	—	—	—
51	Caleb Durbin	0.5	−246/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
52	Cam Smith	0.5	−167/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
53	Cameron Cauley	0.5	−141/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
54	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	−145/ +109	—	—	55%	—	—	—
55	Carson Benge	0.5	−247/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
56	Carson Kelly	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
57	Carter Jensen	0.5	−201/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
58	Casey Schmitt	0.5	−260/ +192	—	—	68%	—	—	—
59	Ceddanne Rafaela	1.5	+192/ −261	—	—	32%	—	—	—
60	Cedric Mullins	0.5	−220/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
61	Chandler Simpson	1.5	+140/ −187	—	—	39%	—	—	—
62	Christian Walker	0.5	−183/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
63	Christian Yelich	0.5	−232/ +172	—	—	66%	—	—	—
64	Coby Mayo	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
65	Cody Bellinger	0.5	−265/ +195	—	—	68%	—	—	—
66	Colby Thomas	0.5	−174/ +131	—	—	59%	—	—	—
67	Cole Carrigg	0.5	−241/ +178	—	—	66%	—	—	—
68	Colt Keith	0.5	−167/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
69	Cooper Pratt	0.5	−157/ +118	—	—	57%	—	—	—
70	Corbin Carroll	1.5	+166/ −223	—	—	35%	—	—	—
71	Curtis Mead	0.5	−229/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
72	Dalton Rushing	0.5	−187/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
73	Dansby Swanson	0.5	−196/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
74	Daulton Varsho	0.5	−166/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
75	Daylen Lile	0.5	−255/ +188	—	—	67%	—	—	—
76	Dillon Dingler	0.5	−239/ +177	—	—	66%	—	—	—
77	Dominic Smith	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
78	Drake Baldwin	0.5	−274/ +201	—	—	69%	—	—	—
79	Drew Cavanaugh	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
80	Drew Gilbert	0.5	−183/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
81	Dylan Crews	0.5	−215/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
82	Edwin Arroyo	0.5	−152/ +115	—	—	56%	—	—	—
83	Elly De La Cruz	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
84	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
85	Ernie Clement	0.5	−234/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
86	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	−128/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
87	Esteury Ruiz	1.5	+180/ −244	—	—	33%	—	—	—
88	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	−143/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
89	Evan Carter	0.5	−109/ −121	—	—	49%	—	—	—
90	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	−206/ +154	—	—	63%	—	—	—
91	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	−165/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
92	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	+115/ −153	—	—	43%	—	—	—
93	Francisco Alvarez	0.5	−164/ +123	—	—	58%	—	—	—
94	Francisco Lindor	0.5	−248/ +183	—	—	67%	—	—	—
95	Freddie Freeman	1.5	+178/ −240	—	—	34%	—	—	—
96	Freddy Fermin	0.5	−174/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
97	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	−247/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
98	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	0.5	−110/ −120	—	—	49%	—	—	—
99	Gary Sanchez	0.5	−165/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
100	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−263/ +194	—	—	68%	—	—	—

More for this date

DFS Picks Confirmed Lineups Matchups Starting Pitchers

Want the why behind an edge?

Ask The Almanac about a player's matchup, recent form, or pitcher arsenal in chat — same data, deeper context.

Start a conversation →