Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

June 4, 2026 MLB Hits Props

160 lines · 8 projected · Updated Jun 5, 12:05 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

The clearest over on the board is Carlos Narvaez at 1.01 pp of edge, with the model sitting at 57.6% on a 0.5 line against a projection of 0.82 hits — thin production, but the market is pricing him even softer. Worth noting the bias direction here runs high, meaning model overs tend to run hot, so Narvaez's read is probably closer to fair value than a fat edge. The real interest is on the under side: Ceddanne Rafaela (–7.98 pp, 25.3% over prob, 1.06 projection) and Jarren Duran (–5.34 pp, 27.7%, 1.06) both sit on 1.5 lines the model thinks are overpriced by a meaningful margin, high confidence on both.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

8 of 160 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Carlos Narvaez Boston Red Sox	0.5	−154/ +115	0.82	58%	57%	+1.0 pp	Over	Med
2	Caleb Durbin Boston Red Sox	0.5	−208/ +155	0.96	64%	63%	+0.2 pp	Over	Med
3	Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox	0.5	−269/ +197	1.15	67%	68%	−1.6 pp	Under	High
4	Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox	1.5	+178/ −241	1.05	30%	34%	−4.1 pp	Under	High
5	Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox	1.5	+184/ −249	1.06	28%	33%	−5.3 pp	Under	High
6	Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox	1.5	+182/ −246	1.06	25%	33%	−8.0 pp	Under	High
7	Isiah Kiner-Falefa Boston Red Sox	0.5	−262/ +193	0.94	60%	68%	−8.1 pp	Under	Med
8	Andruw Monasterio Boston Red Sox	0.5	−199/ +149	0.75	52%	62%	−10.3 pp	Under	Med
9	Adley Rutschman	0.5	−264/ +194	—	—	68%	—	—	—
10	Adolis Garcia	0.5	−132/ −101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
11	Alec Bohm	0.5	−236/ +175	—	—	66%	—	—	—
12	Alex Bregman	0.5	−244/ +180	—	—	67%	—	—	—
13	Alex Call	0.5	−184/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
14	Alex Freeland	0.5	−152/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
15	Andy Pages	1.5	+170/ −230	—	—	35%	—	—	—
16	Angel Martinez	0.5	−151/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
17	Anthony Volpe	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
18	Austin Hedges	0.5	+103/ −136	—	—	46%	—	—	—
19	Austin Martin	0.5	−195/ +145	—	—	62%	—	—	—
20	Austin Riley	0.5	−177/ +133	—	—	60%	—	—	—
21	Ben Rice	0.5	−242/ +179	—	—	66%	—	—	—
22	Bobby Witt Jr.	1.5	+148/ −199	—	—	38%	—	—	—
23	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
24	Brandon Marsh	0.5	−229/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
25	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	−139/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
26	Brent Rooker	0.5	−219/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
27	Brice Matthews	0.5	−128/ −104	—	—	52%	—	—	—
28	Brice Turang	1.5	+193/ −263	—	—	32%	—	—	—
29	Brooks Lee	0.5	−270/ +198	—	—	69%	—	—	—
30	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−184/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
31	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	−129/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
32	Bryce Harper	0.5	−219/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
33	Bryson Stott	0.5	−197/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
34	Byron Buxton	1.5	+188/ −256	—	—	33%	—	—	—
35	Cam Smith	0.5	−148/ +111	—	—	56%	—	—	—
36	Carson Kelly	0.5	−177/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
37	Carter Jensen	0.5	−206/ +154	—	—	63%	—	—	—
38	Casey Schmitt	0.5	−208/ +155	—	—	63%	—	—	—
39	Cesar Salazar	0.5	−121/ −109	—	—	51%	—	—	—
40	Charles McAdoo	0.5	−118/ −113	—	—	51%	—	—	—
41	Chase DeLauter	0.5	−202/ +151	—	—	63%	—	—	—
42	Christian Walker	0.5	−228/ +169	—	—	65%	—	—	—
43	Christian Yelich	1.5	+182/ −246	—	—	33%	—	—	—
44	Coby Mayo	0.5	−186/ +139	—	—	61%	—	—	—
45	Cody Bellinger	0.5	−236/ +175	—	—	66%	—	—	—
46	Colby Thomas	0.5	−217/ +161	—	—	64%	—	—	—
47	Colton Cowser	0.5	−142/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
48	Corbin Carroll	0.5	−270/ +198	—	—	69%	—	—	—
49	Dalton Rushing	0.5	−196/ +146	—	—	62%	—	—	—
50	Dansby Swanson	0.5	−153/ +115	—	—	57%	—	—	—
51	Darell Hernaiz	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
52	Daulton Varsho	0.5	−134/ +101	—	—	54%	—	—	—
53	David Fry	0.5	−121/ −110	—	—	51%	—	—	—
54	David Hamilton	0.5	−142/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
55	Dominic Smith	0.5	−196/ +146	—	—	62%	—	—	—
56	Drew Gilbert	0.5	−105/ −126	—	—	48%	—	—	—
57	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−150/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
58	Eric Haase	0.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
59	Ernie Clement	0.5	−249/ +183	—	—	67%	—	—	—
60	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	−227/ +168	—	—	65%	—	—	—
61	Freddie Freeman	1.5	+187/ −253	—	—	33%	—	—	—
62	Freddy Fermin	0.5	−112/ −119	—	—	49%	—	—	—
63	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	−271/ +199	—	—	69%	—	—	—
64	Garrett Mitchell	0.5	−167/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
65	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−190/ +142	—	—	61%	—	—	—
66	George Springer	0.5	−179/ +134	—	—	60%	—	—	—
67	Geraldo Perdomo	0.5	−258/ +190	—	—	68%	—	—	—
68	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	+151/ −202	—	—	37%	—	—	—
69	Henry Bolte	0.5	−195/ +145	—	—	62%	—	—	—
70	Ian Happ	0.5	−217/ +161	—	—	64%	—	—	—
71	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	−252/ +186	—	—	67%	—	—	—
72	Isaac Collins	0.5	−187/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
73	Isaac Paredes	0.5	−174/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
74	J.C. Escarra	0.5	−121/ −110	—	—	51%	—	—	—
75	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	−201/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
76	Jac Caglianone	0.5	−203/ +151	—	—	63%	—	—	—
77	Jackson Chourio	1.5	+159/ −214	—	—	36%	—	—	—
78	Jackson Holliday	0.5	−185/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
79	Jackson Merrill	0.5	−179/ +134	—	—	60%	—	—	—
80	Jake Bauers	0.5	−191/ +143	—	—	61%	—	—	—
81	Jake Mangum	0.5	−183/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
82	Jake Meyers	0.5	−196/ +146	—	—	62%	—	—	—
83	Jared Triolo	0.5	−107/ −124	—	—	48%	—	—	—
84	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	−178/ +133	—	—	60%	—	—	—
85	Jeff McNeil	0.5	−203/ +151	—	—	63%	—	—	—
86	Jeremy Pena	1.5	+187/ −254	—	—	33%	—	—	—
87	Jorge Mateo	0.5	−139/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
88	Jose Caballero	0.5	−163/ +123	—	—	58%	—	—	—
89	Jose Fernandez	0.5	−179/ +134	—	—	60%	—	—	—
90	Jose Ramirez	0.5	−231/ +171	—	—	65%	—	—	—
91	Josh Bell	0.5	−203/ +152	—	—	63%	—	—	—
92	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	−212/ +158	—	—	64%	—	—	—
93	Justin Crawford	0.5	−173/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
94	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	−152/ +115	—	—	56%	—	—	—
95	Ketel Marte	1.5	+172/ −232	—	—	34%	—	—	—
96	Kody Clemens	0.5	−218/ +162	—	—	64%	—	—	—
97	Kyle Isbel	0.5	−142/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
98	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	−172/ +129	—	—	59%	—	—	—
99	Kyle Tucker	0.5	−226/ +167	—	—	65%	—	—	—
100	Leody Taveras	0.5	−193/ +144	—	—	62%	—	—	—

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