Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

May 5, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props

130 lines · Updated Jun 5, 12:54 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

The board is thin — 130 lines are priced but the model returned zero top plays, and crucially, num_with_projection sits at 0, meaning no player carried a usable projection to run against the market. Worth noting the methodology caveat: this model's Poisson approximation underestimates distribution tails, so any edges on overs it does surface would be conservative reads, not aggressive ones. Nothing here clears the bar today. Check back if projections get populated closer to first pitch.

How we model these edges

Model method:: poisson_per_game
Approximation quality:: Approximate
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.

Total Bases Board

0 of 130 projected

Total Bases prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Aaron Judge	1.5	+110/ −146	—	—	45%	—	—	—
2	Adley Rutschman	1.5	+122/ −162	—	—	42%	—	—	—
3	Adolis Garcia	1.5	+127/ −169	—	—	41%	—	—	—
4	Alec Bohm	1.5	+155/ −208	—	—	37%	—	—	—
5	Alec Burleson	1.5	+123/ −164	—	—	42%	—	—	—
6	Alex Bregman	1.5	+135/ −180	—	—	40%	—	—	—
7	Andres Gimenez	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
8	Andrew Vaughn	1.5	+149/ −200	—	—	38%	—	—	—
9	Andy Pages	1.5	+117/ −156	—	—	43%	—	—	—
10	Angel Martinez	1.5	+149/ −200	—	—	38%	—	—	—
11	Ben Rice	1.5	+129/ −173	—	—	41%	—	—	—
12	Bo Bichette	1.5	−135/ +102	—	—	54%	—	—	—
13	Bobby Witt Jr.	1.5	+116/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—
14	Brady House	1.5	+138/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
15	Brandon Marsh	1.5	+110/ −142	—	—	45%	—	—	—
16	Brandon Nimmo	1.5	+127/ −169	—	—	41%	—	—	—
17	Brent Rooker	1.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
18	Brett Baty	1.5	+130/ −174	—	—	41%	—	—	—
19	Brice Turang	1.5	+149/ −200	—	—	38%	—	—	—
20	Brooks Lee	2.5	−148/ +115	—	—	56%	—	—	—
21	Bryan Reynolds	1.5	+132/ −176	—	—	40%	—	—	—
22	Bryce Harper	1.5	+104/ −138	—	—	46%	—	—	—
23	Bryson Stott	2.5	−130/ +100	—	—	53%	—	—	—
24	Byron Buxton	1.5	−122/ −109	—	—	51%	—	—	—
25	CJ Abrams	1.5	+120/ −159	—	—	43%	—	—	—
26	Carson Benge	1.5	+127/ −169	—	—	41%	—	—	—
27	Carson Kelly	1.5	+150/ −201	—	—	37%	—	—	—
28	Ceddanne Rafaela	1.5	+151/ −202	—	—	37%	—	—	—
29	Chandler Simpson	1.5	−105/ −125	—	—	48%	—	—	—
30	Chase DeLauter	1.5	+122/ −163	—	—	42%	—	—	—
31	Cody Bellinger	1.5	+120/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—
32	Corbin Carroll	1.5	+119/ −159	—	—	43%	—	—	—
33	Corey Seager	1.5	+120/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—
34	Curtis Mead	2.5	+115/ −148	—	—	44%	—	—	—
35	Dalton Rushing	1.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
36	Darell Hernaiz	1.5	+156/ −209	—	—	37%	—	—	—
37	Daulton Varsho	1.5	−120/ −110	—	—	51%	—	—	—
38	Daylen Lile	1.5	+110/ −146	—	—	45%	—	—	—
39	Dillon Dingler	1.5	+128/ −170	—	—	41%	—	—	—
40	Drake Baldwin	1.5	+102/ −135	—	—	46%	—	—	—
41	Edouard Julien	1.5	+136/ −182	—	—	40%	—	—	—
42	Ernie Clement	1.5	−135/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
43	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	+134/ −179	—	—	40%	—	—	—
44	Francisco Alvarez	1.5	+124/ −165	—	—	42%	—	—	—
45	Freddie Freeman	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
46	Gabriel Moreno	1.5	+144/ −193	—	—	38%	—	—	—
47	George Springer	1.5	+123/ −163	—	—	42%	—	—	—
48	Geraldo Perdomo	1.5	+151/ −203	—	—	37%	—	—	—
49	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	−130/ +100	—	—	53%	—	—	—
50	Hunter Goodman	1.5	+107/ −142	—	—	45%	—	—	—
51	Ildemaro Vargas	1.5	+137/ −183	—	—	39%	—	—	—
52	Ivan Herrera	1.5	+141/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
53	J.T. Realmuto	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
54	JJ Wetherholt	1.5	+129/ −172	—	—	41%	—	—	—
55	Jackson Chourio	1.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
56	Jackson Merrill	1.5	+127/ −169	—	—	41%	—	—	—
57	Jacob Wilson	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
58	Jake Mangum	1.5	+106/ −141	—	—	45%	—	—	—
59	Jakob Marsee	1.5	+153/ −205	—	—	37%	—	—	—
60	James Wood	1.5	+125/ −166	—	—	42%	—	—	—
61	Jared Triolo	1.5	+149/ −200	—	—	38%	—	—	—
62	Jarren Duran	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
63	Jo Adell	1.5	+118/ −157	—	—	43%	—	—	—
64	Jonathan Aranda	1.5	+145/ −188	—	—	38%	—	—	—
65	Jordan Walker	1.5	+125/ −166	—	—	42%	—	—	—
66	Jose Ramirez	1.5	+118/ −157	—	—	43%	—	—	—
67	Jose Tena	1.5	+100/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
68	Josh Bell	1.5	+114/ −152	—	—	44%	—	—	—
69	Josh Jung	2.5	+130/ −168	—	—	41%	—	—	—
70	Josh Naylor	1.5	+115/ −153	—	—	43%	—	—	—
71	Juan Soto	1.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
72	Julio Rodriguez	1.5	−101/ −131	—	—	47%	—	—	—
73	Jung Hoo Lee	1.5	+106/ −141	—	—	45%	—	—	—
74	Junior Caminero	1.5	+105/ −135	—	—	46%	—	—	—
75	Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	+120/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—
76	Ketel Marte	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
77	Kevin McGonigle	1.5	+105/ −140	—	—	46%	—	—	—
78	Kody Clemens	1.5	+137/ −183	—	—	39%	—	—	—
79	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	+106/ −141	—	—	45%	—	—	—
80	Kyle Stowers	1.5	+114/ −152	—	—	44%	—	—	—
81	Kyle Tucker	1.5	+117/ −155	—	—	43%	—	—	—
82	Liam Hicks	2.5	−125/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
83	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
84	Luis Arraez	1.5	+104/ −138	—	—	46%	—	—	—
85	Luis Garcia Jr.	1.5	+104/ −138	—	—	46%	—	—	—
86	Luke Keaschall	1.5	−135/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
87	MJ Melendez	1.5	+130/ −173	—	—	41%	—	—	—
88	Maikel Garcia	1.5	+135/ −181	—	—	40%	—	—	—
89	Manny Machado	1.5	+146/ −195	—	—	38%	—	—	—
90	Marcell Ozuna	1.5	+129/ −173	—	—	41%	—	—	—
91	Marcus Semien	1.5	+101/ −134	—	—	46%	—	—	—
92	Mark Vientos	1.5	+111/ −148	—	—	44%	—	—	—
93	Matt Chapman	1.5	+132/ −176	—	—	40%	—	—	—
94	Matt Olson	1.5	+121/ −161	—	—	42%	—	—	—
95	Matt Vierling	4.5	−120/ −110	—	—	51%	—	—	—
96	Mauricio Dubon	1.5	+145/ −194	—	—	38%	—	—	—
97	Max Muncy	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
98	Mickey Moniak	1.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
99	Miguel Andujar	1.5	+145/ −194	—	—	38%	—	—	—
100	Mike Trout	1.5	+125/ −166	—	—	42%	—	—	—

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