Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 5, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
28 lines · Updated Jun 5, 12:40 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 28 lines posted but the model returns zero top plays and, notably, zero pitcher projections attached to any of them. Without underlying strikeout-rate inputs, the Poisson engine is essentially running blind, so any edge signals that might surface would be noise rather than signal. Methodology is neutral-bias, which at least means nothing is systematically inflated or deflated, but that doesn't rescue a coverage gap this wide. Skip the K market today and check back once projection data populates.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 28 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Pallante | 3.5 | −157/ +123 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Andrew Abbott | 4.5 | +143/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brandon Sproat | 4.5 | +118/ −151 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Bryce Elder | 4.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Bubba Chandler | 4.5 | +111/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Cade Cavalli | 3.5 | +100/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Chris Bassitt | 3.5 | −125/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Cristopher Sanchez | 7.5 | +100/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 | −120/ −106 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 5.5 | +128/ −163 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Elmer Rodriguez | 3.5 | −121/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Erick Fedde | 3.5 | −165/ +129 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Framber Valdez | 4.5 | −120/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Freddy Peralta | 6.5 | +122/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Gavin Williams | 5.5 | −148/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 16 | George Kirby | 5.5 | +118/ −151 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob deGrom | 6.5 | +105/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Jameson Taillon | 4.5 | −164/ +128 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Kevin Gausman | 3.5 | +110/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Logan Webb | 5.5 | +105/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Luis Severino | 4.5 | −154/ +121 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Michael Lorenzen | 3.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Peter Lambert | 4.5 | −118/ −108 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 | −162/ +126 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Shohei Ohtani | 6.5 | −151/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Stephen Kolek | 2.5 | −157/ +123 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Taj Bradley | 5.5 | −106/ −120 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Walker Buehler | 3.5 | −133/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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