Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 4, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
20 lines · Updated Jun 5, 12:56 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 20 lines priced, zero model projections attached, and no top plays surfaced. Without player-level projections, the edge column is empty across the board, so there's nothing here to act on with confidence. Worth noting for when data fills in: the Poisson model runs with a low bias on overs, meaning any edges that do appear would likely understate the real over probability slightly. Check back if projections populate closer to first pitch.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 20 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | −135/ +102 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Brenton Doyle | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brett Baty | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Francisco Alvarez | 1.5 | −107/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −124/ −107 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Jordan Beck | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | −134/ +101 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kyle Karros | 1.5 | +152/ −205 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 13 | MJ Melendez | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Marcus Semien | 1.5 | −103/ −128 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Vientos | 1.5 | +111/ −147 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 16 | TJ Rumfield | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Troy Johnston | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Tyler Freeman | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Tyrone Taylor | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Willi Castro | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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