Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 4, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
3 lines · Updated Jun 5, 12:56 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — three lines posted, zero projections loaded, and no plays surfaced by the model. Without underlying strikeout projections, edge calculation collapses to a null set, so there's nothing actionable to surface here. The methodology is running neutral bias with standard Poisson, so no systematic skew to lean on either. Check back once projections populate; the infrastructure note flags an ML simulation upgrade in progress that should sharpen K-grid coverage when it lands.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 3 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Tolle | 4.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 7.5 | +114/ −146 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Tomoyuki Sugano | 3.5 | +103/ −132 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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