College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 6 Betting Lines

51 games priced · 51 graded · October 4, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:24 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 26–24–1; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 26–24–1; 12 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 24–26; 1 push
Average total: 52.5; avg spread 12.2

Our model against the market

Model error: 11.05; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 10.48; same games
Model ATS: 26–23–1; 50 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

Iowa State at Cincinnati

Final

Iowa State 30 · Cincinnati 38

Conference game

Spread: Cincinnati −1.5; Cincinnati -1.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; Cincinnati 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.4; -3.9 vs market · leans Iowa State

Spread moved +0.0 (-1.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.0 (51.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Cincinnati covered · by 6.5 · 68 points — over

Oregon State at App State

Final

Oregon State 23 · App State 27

Spread: App State −2.0; App State -2.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +102 / −122; App State 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.9; -0.1 vs market · leans Oregon State

Spread moved -0.5 (-1.5 → -2.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (54.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

App State covered · by 2.0 · 50 points — under

Sam Houston at New Mexico State

Final

Sam Houston 10 · New Mexico State 37

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Sam Houston −2.0; New Mexico State +2.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −120 / +105; New Mexico State 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.0; -1.0 vs market · leans Sam Houston

Spread moved +0.5 (1.5 → 2.0, 2 books)

Total moved +0.5 (51.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico State covered · by 29.0 · 47 points — under

New Mexico at San José State

Final

New Mexico 28 · San José State 35

Conference game

Spread: San José State −2.0; San José State -2.0; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; San José State 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.1; -4.1 vs market · leans New Mexico

Spread moved +0.5 (-2.5 → -2.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (55.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

San José State covered · by 5.0 · 63 points — over

Western Kentucky at Delaware

Final

Western Kentucky 27 · Delaware 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Delaware −2.5; Delaware -2.5; 3 books
Total: 63.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Delaware 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.8; -3.3 vs market · leans Western Kentucky

Spread moved -1.0 (-1.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (61.5 → 63.0, 2 books)

Result

Western Kentucky covered · by 5.5 · 51 points — under

South Alabama at Troy

Final

South Alabama 24 · Troy 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: South Alabama −2.5; Troy +2.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; Troy 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.8; +6.3 vs market · leans Troy

Spread moved +5.5 (-3.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (46.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Troy covered · by 9.5 · 55 points — over

Duke at California

Final

Duke 45 · California 21

Conference game

Spread: Duke −3.5; California +3.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −165 / +140; California 40% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.6; -0.1 vs market · leans Duke

Spread moved +0.5 (3.0 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (56.0 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Duke covered · by 20.5 · 66 points — over

Miami at Florida State

Final

Miami 28 · Florida State 22

Conference game

Spread: Miami −3.5; Florida State +3.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −175 / +150; Florida State 39% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.4; -7.9 vs market · leans Miami

Spread moved -3.0 (6.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (53.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Miami covered · by 2.5 · 50 points — under

Kansas at UCF

Final

Kansas 27 · UCF 20

Conference game

Spread: Kansas −4.0; UCF +4.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +160; UCF 37% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.9; +1.1 vs market · leans UCF

Spread moved +0.5 (3.5 → 4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (55.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Kansas covered · by 3.0 · 47 points — under

Texas at Florida

Final

Texas 21 · Florida 29

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Texas −4.5; Florida +4.5; 3 books
Total: 42.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −210 / +175; Florida 35% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.5; -2.0 vs market · leans Texas

Spread moved -2.0 (6.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (44.0 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida covered · by 12.5 · 50 points — over

Wake Forest at Virginia Tech

Final

Wake Forest 30 · Virginia Tech 23

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Virginia Tech −4.5; Virginia Tech -4.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −198; Virginia Tech 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.2; +5.7 vs market · leans Virginia Tech

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (50.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 11.5 · 53 points — over

Kansas State at Baylor

Final

Kansas State 34 · Baylor 35

Conference game

Spread: Baylor −4.5; Baylor -4.5; 3 books
Total: 60.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −192; Baylor 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.2; +0.7 vs market · leans Baylor

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Result

Kansas State covered · by 3.5 · 69 points — over

Colorado State at San Diego State

Final

Colorado State 24 · San Diego State 45

Conference game

Spread: San Diego State −4.5; San Diego State -4.5; 3 books
Total: 40.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −192; San Diego State 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.3; +7.8 vs market · leans San Diego State

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (38.5 → 40.5, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 16.5 · 69 points — over

UNLV at Wyoming

Final

UNLV 31 · Wyoming 17

Conference game

Spread: UNLV −4.5; Wyoming +4.5; 3 books
Total: 51.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −198 / +165; Wyoming 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.1; -0.6 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved -1.0 (5.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (52.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

UNLV covered · by 9.5 · 48 points — under

Florida Atlantic at Rice

Final

Florida Atlantic 27 · Rice 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Rice −4.5; Rice -4.5; 3 books
Total: 55.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −195; Rice 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.5; +6.0 vs market · leans Rice

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (52.5 → 55.0, 2 books)

Result

Florida Atlantic covered · by 10.5 · 48 points — under

Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois

Final

Miami (OH) 25 · Northern Illinois 14

Conference game

Spread: Miami (OH) −4.5; Northern Illinois +4.5; 3 books
Total: 38.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −195 / +165; Northern Illinois 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.3; +4.8 vs market · leans Northern Illinois

Spread moved +1.0 (3.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (38.5 → 37.5, 2 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 6.5 · 39 points — over

Washington at Maryland

Final

Washington 24 · Maryland 20

Conference game

Spread: Washington −5.5; Maryland +5.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −225 / +185; Maryland 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.4; +3.1 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved +0.0 (5.5 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (52.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Maryland covered · by 1.5 · 44 points — under

Boston College at Pittsburgh

Final

Boston College 7 · Pittsburgh 48

Conference game

Spread: Pittsburgh −6.5; Pittsburgh -6.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +205 / −250; Pittsburgh 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.8; +2.3 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved -2.0 (-4.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (54.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Pittsburgh covered · by 34.5 · 55 points — over

Virginia at Louisville

Final

Virginia 30 · Louisville 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Louisville −6.5; Louisville -6.5; 3 books
Total: 60.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +185 / −225; Louisville 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.6; +4.1 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (61.5 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

Virginia covered · by 9.5 · 57 points — under

Army at UAB

Final

Army 31 · UAB 13

Conference game

Spread: Army −6.5; UAB +6.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −240 / +200; UAB 32% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.2; -2.7 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved -1.0 (7.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (57.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Army covered · by 11.5 · 44 points — under

UTSA at Temple

Final

UTSA 21 · Temple 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: UTSA −6.5; Temple +6.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +205; Temple 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.0; +2.5 vs market · leans Temple

Spread moved +0.0 (6.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (58.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Temple covered · by 12.5 · 48 points — under

Illinois at Purdue

Final

Illinois 43 · Purdue 27

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Illinois −7.0; Purdue +7.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −320 / +260; Purdue 27% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.3; -3.3 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved -3.0 (10.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (54.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Illinois covered · by 9.0 · 70 points — over

Florida International at UConn

Final

Florida International 10 · UConn 51

On the 7

Spread: UConn −7.0; UConn -7.0; 3 books
Total: 52.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +220 / −270; UConn 70% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.7; +5.7 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved +1.5 (-8.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (54.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

UConn covered · by 34.0 · 61 points — over

Central Michigan at Akron

Final

Central Michigan 22 · Akron 28

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Central Michigan −7.0; Akron +7.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −270 / +220; Akron 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.8; +8.8 vs market · leans Akron

Spread moved +0.0 (7.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (44.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Akron covered · by 13.0 · 50 points — over

Eastern Michigan at Buffalo

Final

Eastern Michigan 30 · Buffalo 31

Conference game

Spread: Buffalo −9.5; Buffalo -9.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +275 / −350; Buffalo 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.3; +1.8 vs market · leans Buffalo

Spread moved +0.0 (-9.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Result

Eastern Michigan covered · by 8.5 · 61 points — over

UL Monroe at Northwestern

Final

UL Monroe 7 · Northwestern 42

Spread: Northwestern −12.5; Northwestern -12.5; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +340 / −440; Northwestern 78% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.6; -3.9 vs market · leans UL Monroe

Spread moved -2.0 (-10.5 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (40.5 → 43.0, 2 books)

Result

Northwestern covered · by 22.5 · 49 points — over

Michigan State at Nebraska

Final

Michigan State 27 · Nebraska 38

Conference game

Spread: Nebraska −12.5; Nebraska -12.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +370 / −485; Nebraska 80% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.3; -0.1 vs market · leans Michigan State

Spread moved -2.0 (-10.5 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved -5.0 (53.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan State covered · by 1.5 · 65 points — over

Nevada at Fresno State

Final

Nevada 17 · Fresno State 20

Conference game

Spread: Fresno State −12.5; Fresno State -12.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +390 / −520; Fresno State 80% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.5; +3.0 vs market · leans Fresno State

Spread moved +1.0 (-13.5 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (44.0 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Nevada covered · by 9.5 · 37 points — under

Western Michigan at Massachusetts

Final

Western Michigan 21 · Massachusetts 3

Conference game

Spread: Western Michigan −12.5; Massachusetts +12.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −470 / +360; Massachusetts 21% to win; 3 books
Our model: +16.6; -4.2 vs market · leans Western Michigan

Spread moved +1.0 (11.5 → 12.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (45.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Michigan covered · by 5.5 · 24 points — under

Texas Tech at Houston

Final

Texas Tech 35 · Houston 11

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −13.0; Houston +13.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −520 / +390; Houston 20% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.2; +10.8 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved +1.0 (12.0 → 13.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (50.0 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 11.0 · 46 points — under

Vanderbilt at Alabama

Final

Vanderbilt 14 · Alabama 30

Conference game

Spread: Alabama −13.5; Alabama -13.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +380 / −535; Alabama 80% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.3; -9.2 vs market · leans Vanderbilt

Spread moved +0.0 (-13.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Total moved +6.0 (51.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Alabama covered · by 2.5 · 44 points — under

Colorado at TCU

Final

Colorado 21 · TCU 35

Conference game

Spread: TCU −13.5; TCU -13.5; 3 books
Total: 57.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +410 / −600; TCU 81% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.1; -3.4 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved +1.0 (-14.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (58.0 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

TCU covered · by 0.5 · 56 points — under

Air Force at Navy

Final

Air Force 31 · Navy 34

Spread: Navy −13.5; Navy -13.5; 3 books
Total: 51.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −500; Navy 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.9; +3.4 vs market · leans Navy

Spread moved -2.0 (-11.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Result

Air Force covered · by 10.5 · 65 points — over

Texas State at Arkansas State

Final

Texas State 30 · Arkansas State 31

Conference gameUpsetOn the 14

Spread: Texas State −14.0; Arkansas State +14.0; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −575 / +425; Arkansas State 18% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.4; +0.6 vs market · leans Arkansas State

Spread moved +1.5 (12.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (64.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas State covered · by 15.0 · 61 points — under

Ohio at Ball State

Final

Ohio 14 · Ball State 20

Conference gameUpsetOn the 14

Spread: Ohio −14.0; Ball State +14.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −750 / +475; Ball State 16% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.6; +0.4 vs market · leans Ball State

Spread moved -2.5 (16.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (51.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Ball State covered · by 20.0 · 34 points — under

Clemson at North Carolina

Final

Clemson 38 · North Carolina 10

Conference game

Spread: Clemson −15.5; North Carolina +15.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −650 / +470; North Carolina 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.8; +10.7 vs market · leans North Carolina

Spread moved +2.0 (13.5 → 15.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (46.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Clemson covered · by 12.5 · 48 points — over

Mississippi State at Texas A&M

Final

Mississippi State 9 · Texas A&M 31

Conference game

Spread: Texas A&M −17.5; Texas A&M -17.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +550 / −900; Texas A&M 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.7; -3.8 vs market · leans Mississippi State

Spread moved -3.5 (-14.0 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (58.0 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas A&M covered · by 4.5 · 40 points — under

Wisconsin at Michigan

Final

Wisconsin 10 · Michigan 24

Conference game

Spread: Michigan −17.5; Michigan -17.5; 3 books
Total: 42.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +550 / −850; Michigan 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.9; -3.6 vs market · leans Wisconsin

Spread moved -1.0 (-16.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (41.5 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

Wisconsin covered · by 3.5 · 34 points — under

Syracuse at SMU

Final

Syracuse 18 · SMU 31

Conference game

Spread: SMU −17.5; SMU -17.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +525 / −750; SMU 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.2; -6.3 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved -1.0 (-16.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (58.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Syracuse covered · by 4.5 · 49 points — under

Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion

Final

Coastal Carolina 7 · Old Dominion 47

Conference game

Spread: Old Dominion −18.5; Old Dominion -18.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +650 / −1000; Old Dominion 87% to win; 3 books
Our model: -23.8; +5.3 vs market · leans Old Dominion

Spread moved -1.0 (-17.5 → -18.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (55.0 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Old Dominion covered · by 21.5 · 54 points — over

Kentucky at Georgia

Final

Kentucky 14 · Georgia 35

Conference game

Spread: Georgia −19.5; Georgia -19.5; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +850 / −1600; Georgia 90% to win; 3 books
Our model: -18.1; -1.4 vs market · leans Kentucky

Spread moved +1.0 (-21.0 → -20.0, 2 books)

Total moved +0.5 (48.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

Georgia covered · by 1.5 · Total pushed at 49.0

West Virginia at BYU

Final

West Virginia 24 · BYU 38

Conference game

Spread: BYU −19.5; BYU -19.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +750 / −1400; BYU 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -23.8; +4.3 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved +0.0 (-19.5 → -19.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (48.0 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

West Virginia covered · by 5.5 · 62 points — over

James Madison at Georgia State

Final

James Madison 14 · Georgia State 7

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −19.5; Georgia State +19.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −1350 / +800; Georgia State 11% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.3; +1.3 vs market · leans Georgia State

Spread moved +0.0 (19.5 → 19.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (53.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia State covered · by 12.5 · 21 points — under

Tulsa at Memphis

Final

Tulsa 7 · Memphis 45

Conference game

Spread: Memphis −21.0; Memphis -21.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +900 / −1650; Memphis 90% to win; 3 books
Our model: -27.4; +6.4 vs market · leans Memphis

Spread moved +0.0 (-21.0 → -21.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (55.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Memphis covered · by 17.0 · 52 points — under

Oklahoma State at Arizona

Final

Oklahoma State 13 · Arizona 41

Conference game

Spread: Arizona −21.5; Arizona -21.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +800 / −1600; Arizona 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.3; -6.2 vs market · leans Oklahoma State

Spread moved -3.0 (-18.5 → -21.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (55.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Arizona covered · by 6.5 · 54 points — under

Boise State at Notre Dame

Final

Boise State 7 · Notre Dame 28

Spread: Notre Dame −21.5; Notre Dame -21.5; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +800 / −1600; Notre Dame 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -21.1; -0.4 vs market · leans Boise State

Spread moved -5.0 (-16.5 → -21.5, 3 books)

Total moved +9.5 (53.5 → 63.0, 2 books)

Result

Boise State covered · by 0.5 · 35 points — under

Minnesota at Ohio State

Final

Minnesota 3 · Ohio State 42

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −23.5; Ohio State -23.5; 3 books
Total: 42.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1100 / −2800; Ohio State 92% to win; 3 books
Our model: -23.7; +0.2 vs market · leans Ohio State

Spread moved +0.5 (-24.0 → -23.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (44.5 → 42.0, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 15.5 · 45 points — over

Penn State at UCLA

Final

Penn State 37 · UCLA 42

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Penn State −24.5; UCLA +24.5; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −3500 / +1200; UCLA 7% to win; 3 books
Our model: +23.4; +1.1 vs market · leans UCLA

Spread moved -1.0 (25.5 → 24.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (49.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

UCLA covered · by 29.5 · 79 points — over

Charlotte at South Florida

Final

Charlotte 26 · South Florida 54

Conference game

Spread: South Florida −28.0; South Florida -28.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1500 / −5000; South Florida 94% to win; 3 books
Our model: -28.1; +0.1 vs market · leans South Florida

Spread moved -0.5 (-27.5 → -28.0, 3 books)

Result

Push · 80 points — over

Campbell at NC State

Final

Campbell 10 · NC State 56

Spread: NC State −42.5; NC State -42.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —

Spread moved +0.0 (-42.5 → -42.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (61.0 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

NC State covered · by 3.5 · 66 points — over

Kent State at Oklahoma

Final

Kent State 0 · Oklahoma 44

Spread: Oklahoma −46.5; Oklahoma -46.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -42.0; -4.5 vs market · leans Kent State

Spread moved -1.0 (-45.5 → -46.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Kent State covered · by 2.5 · 44 points — under

Biggest upsets

UCLA beat Penn State7% to win
Ball State beat Ohio16% to win
Arkansas State beat Texas State18% to win
Akron beat Central Michigan30% to win
Temple beat UTSA31% to win

Where we disagreed most

Texas Tech at Houston+10.8 pts toward Houston
Clemson at North Carolina+10.7 pts toward North Carolina
Vanderbilt at Alabama-9.2 pts toward Vanderbilt
Central Michigan at Akron+8.8 pts toward Akron
Miami at Florida State-7.9 pts toward Miami

Coverage

51 games in this week's window · 51 with a spread · 51 with a total · 49 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →