Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 2, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
73 lines · 6 projected · Updated Jul 2, 1:50 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The Phillies are dominating this board — five of the six projected names are Philadelphia hitters, and the top two carry the most convincing edges on the slate. Brandon Marsh sits at a 35.51% edge over the no-vig line at 1.5, with a 78.2% model probability and a 2.88 projection; Bryce Harper is right behind him at 29.77% edge, 77.6% probability, and a 2.84 projection. Worth noting: the Poisson methodology runs biased low on overs, so both edges are likely understated. Schwarber adds a third Phillies angle at 14.42% edge. Below those three, the remaining plays are thin.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
6 of 73 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | 2.88 | 78% | 43% | +35.5 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | −105/ −127 | 2.84 | 78% | 48% | +29.8 pp | Over | High |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | −107/ −123 | 2.13 | 63% | 48% | +14.4 pp | Over | High |
| 4 | Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | 1.58 | 47% | 41% | +6.2 pp | Over | High |
| 5 | Bryson Stott Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | 1.56 | 46% | 41% | +5.0 pp | Over | High |
| 6 | Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | 1.58 | 47% | 47% | +0.2 pp | Over | High |
| 7 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Andrew Benintendi | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | −149/ +112 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | −109/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Carter Jensen | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Cedric Mullins | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cole Carrigg | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Colson Montgomery | 1.5 | +119/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Dominic Canzone | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Endy Rodriguez | 1.5 | +141/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Ezequiel Duran | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Griffin Conine | 1.5 | −102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −142/ +107 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 30 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | +101/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Jake Burger | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | −117/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Jakob Marsee | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Javier Sanoja | 1.5 | −103/ −129 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Joe Mack | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | −113/ −117 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +126/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | −146/ +110 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Konnor Griffin | 1.5 | +100/ −132 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Kyle Manzardo | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Kyle Stowers | 1.5 | −135/ +102 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Lane Thomas | 1.5 | +119/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Liam Hicks | 1.5 | −117/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +150/ −201 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | −141/ +106 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Otto Lopez | 1.5 | −158/ +119 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Owen Caissie | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Richie Palacios | 1.5 | +151/ −202 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Riley Greene | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Salvador Perez | 1.5 | +118/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Sam Antonacci | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Shohei Ohtani | 1.5 | −118/ −112 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Starling Marte | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 67 | TJ Rumfield | 1.5 | −104/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Travis Bazzana | 1.5 | +129/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Troy Johnston | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 71 | William Contreras | 1.5 | +144/ −192 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Xavier Edwards | 1.5 | −131/ −102 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Yandy Diaz | 1.5 | −140/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
More for this date
Want the why behind an edge?
Ask The Almanac about a player's matchup, recent form, or pitcher arsenal in chat — same data, deeper context.