Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 5, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
27 lines · Updated Jun 5, 2:26 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 27 lines posted but no projections loaded and no edges surfaced. Without model probabilities to compare against the no-vig lines, there's nothing here worth leaning on. One methodological note worth keeping in mind for future reads: any integer lines (say, 2.0 instead of 2.5) slightly overstate over probability under the Poisson setup, so if those appear in a live board, treat the model edge as marginally generous. Check back once projections populate; the strikeout market is worth playing when the model has data to work with.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 27 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Kay | 4.5 | +112/ −144 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Brady Singer | 3.5 | −164/ +128 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brandon Sproat | 4.5 | +106/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Brandon Young | 4.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Bryan Woo | 5.5 | −128/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Christian Scott | 5.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 | −124/ −103 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Edward Cabrera | 4.5 | +104/ −133 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Foster Griffin | 4.5 | +103/ −131 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Framber Valdez | 5.5 | +116/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 | −112/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kumar Rocker | 3.5 | −131/ +103 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Kyle Leahy | 4.5 | −135/ +106 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Martin Perez | 4.5 | −107/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Merrill Kelly | 4.5 | +115/ −146 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Michael King | 5.5 | −123/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Michael Wacha | 4.5 | −128/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Mitch Keller | 4.5 | −112/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Parker Messick | 6.5 | +119/ −152 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Peter Lambert | 4.5 | −127/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Robbie Ray | 4.5 | −144/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Roki Sasaki | 5.5 | −127/ −101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Ryan Feltner | 3.5 | +101/ −129 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Ryan Weathers | 6.5 | +104/ −132 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Sonny Gray | 5.5 | +111/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Trey Yesavage | 6.5 | +119/ −152 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Zebby Matthews | 5.5 | +129/ −165 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
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