Thin slate today — three starters, all flagged unfavorable matchups, all medium confidence. If you're forcing a pivot, Rhett Lowder has the clearest path: 4.5 projected innings leads the board and his 4.6 projected Ks edge out the field, even with a 5.4 season ERA that's hard to trust. Max Meyer's 2.81 ERA is the cleanest underlying number here, but 3.9 projected innings and only 4.1 Ks cap his ceiling. Flaherty carries an extra wrinkle — 12 days of extended rest flagged as a rust risk, 44°F conditions suppressing both offense and confidence in his projected 3.8 Ks over 3.9 innings.