Week 21 · 2 games · January 25, 2026 · Updated Jul 9, 12:00 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Two games, two upsets — neither favorite covered. New England beat Denver 10-7 as a 3.5-point road underdog, a low-drama grind that went well under the total with just 17 combined points. Seattle was only a 2.5-point home favorite against the Rams but won 31-27, so LA's outright loss is the bigger story there — 58 total points cleared the over in a back-and-forth finish that generated nearly as much win-probability movement as the Patriots-Broncos slog. No individual leaders are posted yet, but the results are plain: the books missed both games, and the week belongs to the underdogs.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Final
New England Patriots10
Denver Broncos7
Back-and-forth · 4.6Under 17Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 4:46(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 · 2:18(2:18) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass deep right intended for 19-M.Mims INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez [44-K.Chaisson] at NE 36. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 36 for no gain (19-M.Mims).
Q2 · 2:59(2:59) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham sacked at DEN 14 for -19 yards (53-C.Elliss). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss) [53-C.Elliss], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at DEN 12.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Final
Los Angeles Rams27
Seattle Seahawks31
Back-and-forth · 4.4Over 58Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 12:17(12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.
Q4 · 4:59(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).
Q1 · 12:51(12:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to LA 25 for 51 yards (31-D.Williams).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.