Week 20 · 4 games · January 18, 2026 · Updated Jul 9, 12:00 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Denver edged Buffalo 33-30 in overtime in the most chaotic game of the week — a back-and-forth finish that hit the over on a 63-point total and ended with the Broncos covering as 1.5-point home favorites. LA pulled the bigger upset, winning 20-17 in OT at Chicago despite being 3.5-point road underdogs, staying under a quiet 37-point total. New England handled Houston 28-16 as a 3-point home underdog, a clean outright upset in the straightest game on the slate. Seattle made the weekend's loudest statement, dismantling San Francisco 41-6 — a 35-point beatdown that wasn't close enough to generate drama but absolutely reshapes the standings picture heading into next week.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Final (OT)
Buffalo Bills30
Denver Broncos33
Instant classic · 7.9Over 63Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 5:24(5:24) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at BUF 38 - No Play.
Q4 · 1:01(1:01) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play.
OT · 6:09(6:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DEN 47 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-97-J.Bosa, Roughing the Passer, declined.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Final
San Francisco 49ers6
Seattle Seahawks41
Wire-to-wire · 1.5Over 47Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 15:0018-E.Pineiro kicks 60 yards from SF 35 to SEA 5. 22-R.Shaheed for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-18-E.Pineiro, Tripping, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 14:41(14:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings pushed ob at SF 44 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).
Q1 · 4:24(4:24) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges to SF 42 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones; 21-D.Witherspoon). FUMBLES (13-E.Jones), RECOVERED by SEA-20-J.Love at SF 43. 20-J.Love to SF 42 for 1 yard (44-K.Juszczyk).
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Final
Houston Texans16
New England Patriots28
Back-and-forth · 4.1Over 44Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 10:41(10:41) 7-C.Stroud pass short left intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones [44-K.Chaisson] at HOU 26. 25-M.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:58(:58) 10-D.Maye up the middle to NE 27 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai). FUMBLES (72-T.Togiai), RECOVERED by HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair at NE 27.
Q1 · 9:41(9:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
Final (OT)
Los Angeles Rams20
Chicago Bears17
Instant classic · 7.5Under 37Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:27(:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse].
OT · 4:54(4:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to CHI 27 for 16 yards (1-J.Johnson).
OT · 8:04(8:04) 18-C.Williams left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (55-B.Fiske).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.