Week 19 · 6 games · January 11, 2026 · Updated Jul 9, 12:02 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
LA pulled off the biggest upset on the slate, winning outright at Carolina 34-31 despite being a 10-point road underdog — the highest drama index of the week at 5.758 reflects just how much the game swung before the final whistle. SF was a 6-point road underdog at Philly and also won outright, 23-19, with both games finishing within a possession. Chicago covered at home against Green Bay, 31-27, while Houston went to Pittsburgh and handled the Steelers 30-6, making Pittsburgh's spread of -3 look like a misread entirely. New England's 16-3 win over the Chargers was the quietest result — 19 total points, well under, nothing close.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Final
Los Angeles Rams34
Carolina Panthers31
Back-and-forth · 5.8Over 65Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:43(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:33(:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 18-J.Coker pushed ob at LA 9 for 52 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
Q4 · 4:18(4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Final
Green Bay Packers27
Chicago Bears31
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.0Over 58Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love to CHI 33 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 33. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left.
Q4 · 1:48(1:48) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:56(2:56) 17-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Buffalo Bills27
Jacksonville Jaguars24
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.1Under 51TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:10(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).
Q4 · 2:27(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 18-B.Cooks to JAX 20 for 36 yards (26-An.Johnson).
Q4 · 0:59(:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for 3-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop (27-T.White) at JAX 37. 24-C.Bishop to JAX 35 for 2 yards.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
San Francisco 49ers23
Philadelphia Eagles19
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.3Under 42Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
Q4 · 2:21(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
Q1 · 1:33(1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (20-U.Stout).
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Final
Los Angeles Chargers3
New England Patriots16
Back-and-forth · 3.5Under 19Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 7:12(7:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at LAC 24 for -6 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by LAC-91-D.Hand at LAC 23.
Q1 · 5:17(5:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
Q1 · 1:41(1:41) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams ran ob at LAC 23 for 7 yards.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Houston Texans30
Pittsburgh Steelers6
Back-and-forth · 4.1Under 36Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 11:34(11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 90-S.Rankins). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at PIT 33. 90-S.Rankins for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:32(10:32) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right intended for 19-X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at PIT 4. 26-B.Echols to PIT 4 for no gain (19-X.Hutchinson).
Q1 · 2:10(2:10) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud sacked at PIT 48 for -8 yards (33-J.Sawyer). FUMBLES (33-J.Sawyer), RECOVERED by PIT-94-Y.Black at PIT 44.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.