Week 18 · 16 games · January 4, 2026 · Updated Jul 8, 11:59 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 26-24 in the week's wildest finish — a 2-point margin on a 50-point total with a drama index that bounced around all afternoon, and the Steelers were 4.5-point underdogs at home. Las Vegas pulled off the quieter upset of the day, beating Kansas City 14-12 in a 26-point slog that stayed well under the total. Cleveland covered a 9.5-point road number and beat Cincinnati 20-18, while Washington went into Philadelphia and won outright as a 3-point underdog. New England's 38-10 dismantling of Miami was the lopsided note — 28 points as a 14-point home dog is a result worth double-checking.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
Carolina Panthers14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers16
Competitive · 3.5Under 30Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 11:15(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Q4 · 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.
Q4 · 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Seattle Seahawks13
San Francisco 49ers3
Competitive · 3.1Under 16Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 10:27(10:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 42-D.Thomas (53-B.Mafe) at SEA 3. 42-D.Thomas pushed ob at SEA 3 for no gain (23-C.McCaffrey).
Q1 · 7:27(7:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp.
Q1 · 4:37(4:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
Cleveland Browns20
Cincinnati Bengals18
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.7Under 38Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 25-A.Szmyt 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. ** Injury Update: CIN-23-D.Hill has returned to the game.
Q1 · 1:11(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush (93-S.Harris) at CLE 3. 30-D.Bush for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-30-D.Bush, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 14:19(14:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 86-N.Fant to CIN 46 for 5 yards (17-J.Baker; 9-G.Delpit). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by CLE-27-S.Webb at CIN 47. 27-S.Webb for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-27-S.Webb, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Final
Indianapolis Colts30
Houston Texans38
Back-and-forth · 5.6Over 68NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:17(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q1 · 10:45(10:45) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:35(12:35) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass short left intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 36-A.Huzzie (72-T.Togiai) at IND 33. 36-A.Huzzie to IND 33 for no gain (84-T.Warren).
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Green Bay Packers3
Minnesota Vikings16
Competitive · 2.0Under 19U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:54(:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to GB 21 for 26 yards (38-J.Simpson).
Q2 · 2:56(2:56) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to GB 4 for -18 yards (55-E.Wilson).
Q2 · 9:58(9:58) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson up the middle to GB 47 for -1 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel, 51-B.Cashman).
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Final
New Orleans Saints17
Atlanta Falcons19
Back-and-forth · 4.5Under 36Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta Falcons win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 3:24(3:24) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 89-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Alford at ATL 14. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at NO 27 for 59 yards (30-A.Estime).
Q1 · 8:10(8:10) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 96-C.Granderson at NO 14. 96-C.Granderson to NO 14 for no gain (8-K.Pitts).
Q4 · 4:40(4:40) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right tackle to ATL 23 for 29 yards (39-C.Henderson).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Tennessee Titans7
Jacksonville Jaguars41
Competitive · 1.6Over 48TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 8:20(8:20) (Shotgun) 10-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 26-An.Johnson at JAX 42. 26-An.Johnson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 5-E.Ayomanor to JAX 19 for 39 yards (29-E.Murray).
Q1 · 6:08(6:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-P.Washington for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Final
Dallas Cowboys17
New York Giants34
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.7Over 51MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 10:06(10:06) 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 29, RECOVERED by NYG-58-B.Okereke at DAL 28.
Q2 · 2:54(2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (36-R.Payton). Penalty on DAL-78-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 1:1712-J.Gillan kicks 60 yards from NYG 35 to DAL 5. 9-K.Turpin to NYG 11 for 84 yards (23-A.Green).
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Final
Los Angeles Chargers3
Denver Broncos19
Competitive · 2.2Under 22Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 3:50(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short middle intended for 84-K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at LAC 45. 29-J.McMillian for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:29(13:29) 5-T.Lance sacked at LAC 16 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-95-S.Jones at LAC 20.
Q2 · 0:11(:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short right to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to DEN 12 for 18 yards (2-P.Surtain). LAC-84-K.Lambert-Smith was injured during the play.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Final
Miami Dolphins10
New England Patriots38
Competitive · 2.5Over 48Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 11:44(11:44) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left intended for 81-T.Wease INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Hawkins at NE -6. Touchback. Penalty on MIA-52-P.Paul, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q2 · 1:42(1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).
Q2 · 4:39(4:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left end to NE 47 for 2 yards (0-C.Gonzalez, 51-J.Gibbens). FUMBLES (51-J.Gibbens), touched at NE 45, RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at NE 45. 91-E.Ponder to MIA 37 for 18 yards (85-G.Dulcich).
Q4 · 0:13(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 · 4:377-H.Butker kicks 79 yards from KC 20 to LV 1. 23-D.Laube to LV 23 for 22 yards (40-E.Downs). FUMBLES (40-E.Downs), RECOVERED by KC-43-J.Cochrane at LV 21.
Q4 · 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 17-S.Buechele pass deep left to 5-M.Brown to LV 23 for 51 yards (32-L.Johnson; 27-T.McCollum) [51-M.Koonce].
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Final
Detroit Lions19
Chicago Bears16
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.0Under 35Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:02(:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 · 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard (9-J.Brisker) at CHI 5. 31-K.Byard to CHI 26 for 21 yards (64-C.Hubbard; 18-I.TeSlaa).
Q4 · 0:42(:42) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 26 for 26 yards (33-J.Jones).
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
Washington Commanders24
Philadelphia Eagles17
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.1Over 41Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 10:57(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 37, touched at WAS 30, RECOVERED by PHI-58-J.Hunt at WAS 28.
Q4 · 2:37(2:37) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 14-J.Johnson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:00(2:00) 14-J.Johnson pass short right intended for 1-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at WAS 22. 58-J.Hunt to WAS 22 for no gain (1-D.Samuel).
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Final
New York Jets8
Buffalo Bills35
Wire-to-wire · 1.3Over 43New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 13:34(13:34) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson to NYJ 23 for 14 yards (39-S.Womack; 46-K.Smith). PENALTY on NYJ-46-K.Smith, Face Mask, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 23.
Q2 · 14:52(14:52) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (95-E.Watts).
Q1 · 4:38(4:38) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (95-E.Watts).
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Final
Arizona Cardinals20
Los Angeles Rams37
Competitive · 3.4Over 57SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 1:21(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 89-T.Higbee to ARI 21 for 21 yards (28-E.Jones; 3-B.Baker). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.
Q1 · 13:10(13:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (10-J.Stewart). FUMBLES (10-J.Stewart) [10-J.Stewart], RECOVERED by LA-91-K.Turner at ARI 23. 91-K.Turner to ARI 23 for no gain (71-J.Gaines).
Q3 · 10:44(10:44) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-M.Wilson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Baltimore Ravens24
Pittsburgh Steelers26
UpsetInstant classic · 6.8Over 50Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:02(:02) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q4 · 2:30(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.