Week 17 · 16 games · December 28, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:03 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Denver's 20-13 win in Kansas City is the headline — the Broncos went into Arrowhead as 13.5-point dogs and walked out with the outright upset. SF-CHI was the week's wildest game by the model, 80 combined points in a 42-38 finish that cleared the total by a mile. Jacksonville pulled a quieter upset in Indianapolis, beating the Colts outright as 3.5-point road underdogs, 23-17. Philadelphia edged Buffalo by a single point despite being 3-point road underdogs, and Cleveland held Pittsburgh to six in a 13-6 defensive grind. Underdogs covered or won outright all over the slate — chalk had a rough Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Final
Dallas Cowboys30
Washington Commanders23
Back-and-forth · 3.7Over 53FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 9:44(9:44) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt right tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:24(2:24) (Shotgun) 14-J.Johnson pass short right to 19-C.Moore to DAL 34 for 15 yards (34-S.Revel). PENALTY on DAL-34-S.Revel, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.
Q1 · 13:08(13:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 48 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Detroit Lions10
Minnesota Vikings23
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.2Under 33U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 3:52(3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:57(2:57) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at DET 43. 22-H.Smith to DET 42 for 1 yard (14-A.St. Brown).
Q2 · 1:10(1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Final
Denver Broncos20
Kansas City Chiefs13
Back-and-forth · 4.4Under 33GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 5:52(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
Q4 · 1:50(1:50) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner].
Q4 · 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at KC 9 - No Play.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Final
Houston Texans20
Los Angeles Chargers16
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.7Under 36SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 13:30(13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 14 for 60 yards (11-T.Smith).
Q2 · 1:12(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 86-O.Gadsden INTERCEPTED by 0-A.Al-Shaair at HOU 1. 0-A.Al-Shaair to HOU 1 for no gain.
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers
Final
Baltimore Ravens41
Green Bay Packers24
UpsetCompetitive · 2.9Over 65Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 5:51(5:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:27(6:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 30, RECOVERED by BAL-45-M.Green at GB 30.
Q3 · 2:44(2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 16-B.Melton to BAL 11 for 34 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Final
New Orleans Saints34
Tennessee Titans26
Back-and-forth · 4.7Over 60Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 7:59(7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Harrell].
Q2 · 4:02(4:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 33 for -11 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [99-C.Young], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at TEN 33. 99-C.Young for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:54(3:54) 30-A.Estime left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars23
Indianapolis Colts17
Back-and-forth · 5.4Under 40Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 11-P.Washington INTERCEPTED by 53-G.Pratt at IND -6. Touchback.
Q1 · 6:13(6:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to IND 16 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at IND 17, RECOVERED by IND-52-S.Ebukam at IND 17.
Q4 · 7:59(7:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 2-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at IND 34. 22-J.Jones to IND 21 for 13 yards (2-J.Downs).
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
Arizona Cardinals14
Cincinnati Bengals37
Competitive · 1.7Under 51Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 11:54(11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:04(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).
Q1 · 14:11(14:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 43 for 13 yards (30-D.Hall).
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Final
New England Patriots42
New York Jets10
Wire-to-wire · 1.0Over 52MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 7:20(7:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to NYJ 42 for 30 yards (33-J.Clark) [72-M.Clemons].
Q1 · 11:32(11:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NYJ 2 for 13 yards (37-Q.Stiggers).
Q1 · 12:54(12:54) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard pushed ob at NYJ 16 for 24 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q2 · 5:03(5:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 87-S.Cannella INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (91-L.Lee) [56-A.Highsmith] at PIT 42. 33-J.Sawyer to CLE 31 for 27 yards (74-T.Jenkins).
Q4 · 12:12(12:12) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger at PIT 34. 29-K.Dugger to PIT 34 for no gain (3-J.Jeudy).
Q4 · 14:21(14:21) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 81-J.Smith to CLE 31 for -4 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Final
Seattle Seahawks27
Carolina Panthers10
Back-and-forth · 3.6Under 37Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 5:33(5:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold to SEA 40 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 39. 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 39 for -7 yards (11-N.Scourton). FUMBLES (11-N.Scourton), touched at SEA 41, RECOVERED by CAR-94-A.Robinson at SEA 40. 94-A.Robinson to SEA 37 for 3 yards (14-S.Darnold). FUMBLES (14-S.Darnold), recovered by CAR-56-C.Rozeboom at SEA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 12:06(12:06) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 22 for 2 yards (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at CAR 21. 0-D.Lawrence to CAR 21 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
Q3 · 12:12(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR -8. Touchback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17
Miami Dolphins20
UpsetCompetitive · 3.3Under 37Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 4:37(4:37) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 81-T.Wease for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:05(7:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 5. 21-A.Davis to MIA 26 for 21 yards (88-C.Otton).
Q2 · 1:46(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short middle to 85-G.Dulcich for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
Final
New York Giants34
Las Vegas Raiders10
Competitive · 2.4Over 44Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 2:50(2:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke [91-D.Alexander] at NYG 9. 58-B.Okereke to LV 44 for 47 yards (2-A.Jeanty).
Q1 · 0:49(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to LV 1 for 29 yards (32-L.Johnson).
Q3 · 0:318-D.Carlson kicks 60 yards from LV 35 to NYG 5. 2-D.Banks for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Final
Philadelphia Eagles13
Buffalo Bills12
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.8Under 25New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:08(:08) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:05TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q1 · 4:13(4:13) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen sacked at PHI 29 for -6 yards (50-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (50-J.Phillips), touched at PHI 28, RECOVERED by PHI-30-J.Campbell at BUF 45.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Chicago Bears38
San Francisco 49ers42
Instant classic · 6.2Over 80Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:04(:04) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 20-J.Walker [94-Y.Gross-Matos]. CHI-10-L.Burden was injured during the play.
Q4 · 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (1-J.Johnson) at SF 34. 53-T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:25(:25) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 2:42(2:42) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) [0-B.Young].
Q2 · 8:42(8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at LA 34. 3-J.Bates for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.