Week 16 · 16 games · December 21, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:07 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Seattle and LA needed overtime to settle a 75-point game, the Rams falling 38-37 in a back-and-forth finish that carried the week's highest drama index by a wide margin. Pittsburgh pulled the bigger surprise, going into Detroit as 7.5-point underdogs and walking out with a 29-24 win. Carolina covered a different kind of upset — Tampa Bay came in favored by 3 and left with a loss, the Panthers winning 23-20 at home. New England also beat the spread on the road, knocking off Baltimore 28-24 despite being a 3.5-point underdog. Most of the slate landed for favorites; the exceptions were loud.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Final (OT)
Los Angeles Rams37
Seattle Seahawks38
Instant classic · 8.5Over 75Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 3:13TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 81-E.Saubert is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
OT · 3:17(3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 6:2792-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Final
Philadelphia Eagles29
Washington Commanders18
Back-and-forth · 3.9Over 47FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 3:33(3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:09(:09) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Q3 · 5:38(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith. PENALTY on WAS-6-N.Igbinoghene, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at WAS 20 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Defensive Holding, declined.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Final (OT)
Green Bay Packers16
Chicago Bears22
Back-and-forth · 5.5Under 38Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 4:57(4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:28(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 9:15(9:15) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to CHI 45 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard) [50-G.Jarrett].
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Final
Minnesota Vikings16
New York Giants13
Back-and-forth · 4.7Under 29MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:25(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play.
Q4 · 2:05(2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q1 · 1:46(1:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 1-J.Nailor INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Adebo at MIN 44. 21-P.Adebo ran ob at MIN 44 for no gain.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
Final
Buffalo Bills23
Cleveland Browns20
Back-and-forth · 4.1Over 43FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:53(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
Q4 · 5:08(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).
Q1 · 3:03(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle intended for 10-Q.Judkins INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 29. 21-J.Poyer to BUF 39 for 10 yards (56-L.Wypler).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers20
Carolina Panthers23
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.3Under 43Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-L.Ransom at CAR 30. 22-L.Ransom to CAR 35 for 5 yards.
Q4 · 12:20(12:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 32 for -9 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q4 · 6:38(6:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka to CAR 49 for 40 yards (21-N.Scott).
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Final
Kansas City Chiefs9
Tennessee Titans26
UpsetCompetitive · 3.0Under 35Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 13:09(13:09) 29-K.Hunt up the middle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-J.Simmons).
Q2 · 11:50(11:50) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to KC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 36 for 31 yards (3-J.Hekker).
Q3 · 4:05(4:05) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun sacked at TEN 11 for -7 yards (92-J.Harrell). FUMBLES (92-J.Harrell), recovered by KC-65-T.Smith at TEN 14.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys
Final
Los Angeles Chargers34
Dallas Cowboys17
UpsetCompetitive · 3.3Over 51AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 14:13(14:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston to DAL 24 for 50 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Q1 · 11:59(11:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to LAC 11 for 28 yards (20-C.Hart). DAL-56-C.Beebe was injured during the play.
Q2 · 8:14(8:14) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Final
Cincinnati Bengals45
Miami Dolphins21
Competitive · 2.8Over 66Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 2:35(2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:43(1:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample pushed ob at MIA 11 for 27 yards (20-J.Brooks) [25-T.Dodson].
Q2 · 4:05(4:05) 14-Q.Ewers pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle to CIN 36 for 17 yards (20-D.Turner). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), recovered by MIA-30-A.Ingold at CIN 37. 30-A.Ingold to CIN 34 for 3 yards (20-D.Turner).
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints
Final
New York Jets6
New Orleans Saints29
Competitive · 3.5Under 35Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans Saints win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NYJ 31 for -10 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q4 · 12:52(12:52) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 46 for -7 yards (93-N.Shepherd). FUMBLES (93-N.Shepherd) [93-N.Shepherd], RECOVERED by NO-99-C.Young at NYJ 46.
Q3 · 12:16(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook sacked at NYJ 40 for -10 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Final
Atlanta Falcons26
Arizona Cardinals19
Back-and-forth · 4.6Under 45State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:30(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Henderson at ATL 37. 39-C.Henderson ran ob at ATL 37 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 5:23(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-E.Higgins to ATL 25 for 25 yards (31-X.Watts).
Q3 · 3:46(3:46) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars34
Denver Broncos20
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.8Over 54Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 13:11(13:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:51(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:55(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington ran ob at DEN 24 for 20 yards (6-P.Locke).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers29
Detroit Lions24
UpsetInstant classic · 6.5Over 53Ford Field
Detroit Lions win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:08(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 8 for 1 yard. Lateral to 16-J.Goff for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 9 - No Play.
Q4 · 1:14(1:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 12 for 24 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q4 · 2:09(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans
Final
Las Vegas Raiders21
Houston Texans23
Back-and-forth · 3.7Over 44NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 9:53(9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 2-A.Jeanty for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:53(10:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at LV 31. 24-D.Stingley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:34(5:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Final
New England Patriots28
Baltimore Ravens24
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.2Over 52M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 3:02(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).
Q4 · 2:15(2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts
Final
San Francisco 49ers48
Indianapolis Colts27
Competitive · 3.2Over 75Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 7:1418-E.Pineiro kicks 56 yards from SF 35 to IND 9. 26-A.Abdullah to IND 27 for 18 yards (27-J.Brown). FUMBLES (27-J.Brown), RECOVERED by SF-88-J.Tonges at IND 26.
Q2 · 14:19(14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 · 11:45(11:45) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 2-J.Downs to SF 23 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.