Week 14 · 14 games · December 7, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:02 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The headliner was LAC-PHI going to overtime, a back-and-forth finish that produced the week's highest drama index despite ending 22-19 — PHI came in as 1.5-point road favorites and still lost, making it a genuine upset. Tennessee pulled a quieter one in Cleveland, winning 31-29 as a 4.5-point underdog and pushing a 60-point total over the number. Houston's 20-10 win in Kansas City deserves a second look — the Chiefs, favored by 4.5 at home, managed just 10 points, one of the more striking results on the board. Elsewhere, favorites largely held, with Detroit, LA, and Seattle all covering comfortably in one-sided outcomes.
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
Final
Dallas Cowboys30
Detroit Lions44
Back-and-forth · 3.5Over 74Ford Field
Detroit Lions win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 9:59(9:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:26(8:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DAL 26 for 29 yards (14-M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-53-J.Houston, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
Q1 · 9:20(9:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DET 39 for 19 yards (29-A.Maddox).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers27
Baltimore Ravens22
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.0Over 49M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
Q4 · 3:36(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (41-P.Wilson).
Q4 · 2:28(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
New Orleans Saints24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers20
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.3Over 44Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 8:34(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:54(12:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at NO 43. 1-A.Taylor to TB 47 for 10 yards (87-P.Durham).
Q3 · 10:01(10:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 15-T.Johnson. PENALTY on NO-33-J.Sanker, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at TB 35 - No Play.
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Washington Commanders0
Minnesota Vikings31
UpsetCompetitive · 1.7Under 31U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 5:15(5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-D.Samuel to MIN 19 for 15 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q2 · 9:59(9:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to WAS 28 for 21 yards (20-Q.Martin).
Q2 · 7:50(7:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to WAS 17 for 13 yards (54-B.Wagner; 20-Q.Martin).
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Final
Miami Dolphins34
New York Jets10
Competitive · 1.8Over 44MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 13:42(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
Q2 · 1:25(1:25) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete deep left to 18-I.Williams. PENALTY on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play.
Q3 · 14:55(14:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short right to 18-I.Williams to NYJ 41 for 9 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Final
Cincinnati Bengals34
Buffalo Bills39
Back-and-forth · 4.7Over 73New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 5:35(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:52(:52) 4-J.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (20-D.Turner; 27-J.Battle). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-42-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.
Q4 · 5:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa (52-J.Phillips) at CIN 30. 57-A.Epenesa to CIN 29 for 1 yard (66-D.Risner).
Q2 · 2:58(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:57(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle intended for 84-G.Larvadain INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [93-T.Sweat] at TEN 27. 25-X.Woods to CLE 38 for 35 yards (22-D.Sampson).
Q4 · 11:07(11:07) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson to CLE 25 for 5 yards (26-M.Harris). FUMBLES (26-M.Harris), RECOVERED by TEN-33-C.Gray at CLE 27. 33-C.Gray to CLE 8 for 19 yards (19-C.Tillman).
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Indianapolis Colts19
Jacksonville Jaguars36
UpsetCompetitive · 2.2Over 55TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 13:04(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
Q1 · 3:54(3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 30 for 39 yards (7-C.Ward).
Q2 · 13:09(13:09) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 29 for 4 yards (52-D.Hamilton, 29-E.Murray). FUMBLES (29-E.Murray), RECOVERED by JAX-22-J.Jones at IND 28. 22-J.Jones to IND 28 for no gain (14-A.Pierce).
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Final
Seattle Seahawks37
Atlanta Falcons9
Competitive · 3.0Over 46Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta Falcons win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 15:0045-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:26(11:26) 7-B.Robinson up the middle to SEA 18 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 12. 21-D.Witherspoon to SEA 12 for no gain (87-D.Sills).
Q2 · 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to SEA 30 for 30 yards (3-N.Emmanwori) [58-D.Hall].
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Final
Denver Broncos24
Las Vegas Raiders17
Competitive · 2.7Over 41Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 6:44(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:05(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:14(:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 1-T.Tucker (2-P.Surtain).
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Final
Chicago Bears21
Green Bay Packers28
Back-and-forth · 3.8Over 49Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 5:56(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Gardner-Johnson at CHI 36. 35-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (50-Z.Tom).
Q4 · 0:27(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
Q4 · 3:37(3:37) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Final
Los Angeles Rams45
Arizona Cardinals17
Competitive · 2.1Over 62State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 3:37(3:37) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 23 for 32 yards (21-G.Williams).
Q2 · 9:19(9:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at LA 20 for -8 yards (91-K.Turner).
Q2 · 13:35(13:35) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-M.Wilson to LA 38 for 14 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Final
Houston Texans20
Kansas City Chiefs10
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.0Under 30GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 7:00(7:00) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:59(9:59) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:45(6:45) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins to KC 21 for 46 yards (22-T.McDuffie). KC-22-T.McDuffie was injured during the play.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers
Final (OT)
Philadelphia Eagles19
Los Angeles Chargers22
UpsetInstant classic · 8.4Under 41SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 2:35(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (20-C.Hart) at LAC 1. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 4 for 3 yards.
OT · 3:23(3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-98-O.Oweh, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.
OT · 4:57(4:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to LAC 47 for 28 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.