Week 12 · 14 games · November 23, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:05 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Three games went to overtime and all three hit the over, which tells you everything about how this Sunday played out. Detroit needed OT to put away the Giants despite being favored by 14, a genuinely wild finish with a drama index that led the slate. Jacksonville pulled the outright upset in Arizona — the Jaguars were 2.5-point road underdogs and won in overtime 27-24. New England was the other notable upset, beating Cincinnati outright as a 7.5-point road underdog. Houston covered a tough number at home against Buffalo, and Chicago beat Pittsburgh as a 3-point home underdog to close it out.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Final
Buffalo Bills19
Houston Texans23
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.2Under 42NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:51(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
Q4 · 0:24(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 1:5615-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
Final
Seattle Seahawks30
Tennessee Titans24
Competitive · 2.6Over 54Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 11:11(11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:09(12:09) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to SEA 32 for 10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
Q1 · 4:31(4:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to TEN 34 for 13 yards (50-C.Barton; 33-C.Gray).
New York Giants at Detroit Lions
Final (OT)
New York Giants27
Detroit Lions34
Instant classic · 7.9Over 61Ford Field
Detroit Lions win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 4:26(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
OT · 9:4239-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
OT · 8:43(8:43) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 41 for 11 yards (32-B.Branch). Penalty on DET-54-A.McNeill, Defensive Offside, declined.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Final
Minnesota Vikings6
Green Bay Packers23
Competitive · 2.4Under 29Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 11:49(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
Q2 · 10:31(10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
Q2 · 0:15(:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens
Final
New York Jets10
Baltimore Ravens23
Competitive · 3.5Under 33M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 14:43(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
Q4 · 6:58(6:58) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right end to BAL 2 for 10 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 41-D.Jones). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at BAL 3.
Q3 · 0:41(:41) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 15-A.Mitchell to BAL 24 for 26 yards (14-K.Hamilton).
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
New England Patriots26
Cincinnati Bengals20
Back-and-forth · 4.7Under 46Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 7:51(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:51(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (25-M.Jones) [21-J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at NE 45 for 12 yards [21-J.Hawkins].
Q4 · 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-M.Jones) [44-K.Chaisson].
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Final (OT)
Indianapolis Colts20
Kansas City Chiefs23
Instant classic · 6.1Under 43GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 5:33(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].
OT · 8:02(8:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 10 for no gain (31-T.Goodson).
OT · 4:38(4:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore; 20-N.Cross).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers28
Chicago Bears31
Back-and-forth · 5.0Over 59Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 4:04(4:04) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at CHI 45 for -8 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], touched at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-98-M.Sweat at CHI 46. ** Injury Update: PIT-4-D.Metcalf has returned to the game.
Q2 · 1:32(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q2 · 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI -2 for -12 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-51-N.Herbig at CHI -1. TOUCHDOWN.
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders
Final
Cleveland Browns24
Las Vegas Raiders10
UpsetCompetitive · 2.8Under 34Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 1:43(1:43) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right to 16-I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards (30-D.Holmes) [98-M.Crosby].
Q2 · 11:28(11:28) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Snowden [69-A.Butler] at CLE 44. 49-C.Snowden to CLE 26 for 18 yards (78-J.Conklin; 12-S.Sanders).
Q1 · 9:27(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals
Final (OT)
Jacksonville Jaguars27
Arizona Cardinals24
Instant classic · 7.5Over 51State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 4:07(4:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 89-X.Weaver (21-C.Braswell, 42-A.Wingard).
OT · 7:51(7:51) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 · 7:19(7:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-G.Dortch for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Final
Philadelphia Eagles21
Dallas Cowboys24
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.2Under 45AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 5:25(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 · 11:48(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:53(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:22(12:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill to ATL 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 12. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 1.
Q1 · 13:00(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by ATL-20-D.Alford at NO 41. 20-D.Alford to NO 39 for 2 yards (6-T.Shough).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7
Los Angeles Rams34
Wire-to-wire · 1.1Under 41SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 1:54(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:08(9:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LA 36 for 13 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q1 · 7:47(7:47) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at TB 26 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield; 25-J.Parrish).
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Carolina Panthers9
San Francisco 49ers20
Competitive · 2.7Under 29Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 1:28(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
Q2 · 6:27(6:27) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 45. 8-Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
Q1 · 3:40(3:40) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at SF 30. 8-Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (44-K.Juszczyk).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.