Week 11 · 15 games · November 16, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:04 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Carolina went into Atlanta as a 4.5-point underdog and left with a 30-27 overtime win — the week's highest drama index and the clearest upset on the slate. Denver knocked off Kansas City 22-19 without needing overtime, a three-point result that went under and handed the Chiefs a road loss against a spread that had them favored by 3.5. Buffalo ran up 44 points on Tampa Bay and the 76-point combined total was the week's loudest number. Pittsburgh covered a 22-point blowout of Cincinnati despite closing as a 5.5-point home underdog, and New England — yes, New England — beat the Jets by 13.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Final
New York Jets14
New England Patriots27
Competitive · 2.6Under 41Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 11:40(11:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane). NE-97-M.Williams was injured during the play.
Q1 · 3:56(3:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 31 for 7 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q2 · 9:14(9:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins to NYJ 27 for 19 yards (22-T.Adams; 37-Q.Stiggers).
Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins
Final (OT)
Washington Commanders13
Miami Dolphins16
Back-and-forth · 5.7Under 29Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:15(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
OT · 10:00(10:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Jones [2-B.Chubb] at WAS 40. 23-J.Jones to WAS 33 for 7 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q4 · 4:21(4:21) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-27-E.Bonner at WAS 42.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers32
Buffalo Bills44
Back-and-forth · 5.2Over 76New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:45(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:05(4:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop at TB 37. 24-C.Bishop to TB 25 for 12 yards (62-G.Barton).
Q1 · 10:34(10:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish [0-Y.Diaby] at BUF 10. 25-J.Parrish to BUF 7 for 3 yards (1-C.Samuel).
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Final
Houston Texans16
Tennessee Titans13
Back-and-forth · 4.9Under 29Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:02(:02) 42-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 · 1:55(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [55-D.Hunter].
Q4 · 0:50(:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (37-A.Hooker).
OT · 8:06(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).
Q4 · 0:21(:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 1:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Final
Green Bay Packers27
New York Giants20
Back-and-forth · 4.8Over 47MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 5:56(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 83-S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (28-C.Flott) [0-B.Burns].
Q4 · 0:40(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB -5. Touchback.
Q4 · 4:07(4:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Chicago Bears19
Minnesota Vikings17
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.6Under 36U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:04(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 · 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:5016-W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (55-E.Wilson).
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Los Angeles Chargers6
Jacksonville Jaguars35
UpsetCompetitive · 2.0Under 41TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 12:54(12:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at JAX 42. 26-D.Jackson pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (17-T.Patrick).
Q2 · 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at JAX 28 for -14 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).
Q2 · 6:32(6:32) 33-B.Tuten right end to LAC 32 for 4 yards (52-K.Mack).
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Cincinnati Bengals12
Pittsburgh Steelers34
Back-and-forth · 3.5Under 46Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 0:51(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:51(11:51) 30-J.Warren left end to CIN 12 for 35 yards (20-D.Turner).
Q3 · 7:38(7:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 80-D.Washington to CIN 37 for 17 yards (22-G.Stone).
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Final
San Francisco 49ers41
Arizona Cardinals22
Competitive · 2.4Over 63State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 15:0038-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
Q1 · 3:03(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).
Q1 · 14:38(14:38) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight right tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 6-M.Mustapha).
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Final
Seattle Seahawks19
Los Angeles Rams21
Back-and-forth · 4.9Under 40SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:01(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q1 · 10:59(10:59) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 34. 26-K.Kinchens pushed ob at SEA 3 for 31 yards (14-S.Darnold).
Q3 · 1:15(1:15) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 47. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 25 for 22 yards (72-A.Lucas).
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Final
Kansas City Chiefs19
Denver Broncos22
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.8Under 41Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 11:00(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q3 · 3:11(3:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to DEN 11 for 61 yards (29-J.McMillian) [98-J.Franklin-Myers].
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Final
Baltimore Ravens23
Cleveland Browns16
Back-and-forth · 5.3Over 39FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:39(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:26(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.
Q3 · 4:37(4:37) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. 49-C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (42-P.Ricard).
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
Detroit Lions9
Philadelphia Eagles16
Back-and-forth · 3.7Under 25Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 11:18(11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (90-J.Davis) at DET 32. 33-C.DeJean to DET 11 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 60-G.Glasgow).
Q2 · 5:12(5:12) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-1-J.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q3 · 9:54(9:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to PHI 24 for 42 yards (30-J.Campbell; 53-Z.Baun).
Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders
Final
Dallas Cowboys33
Las Vegas Raiders16
Competitive · 2.3Over 49Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 9:20(9:20) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby) [98-M.Crosby], RECOVERED by LV-97-T.Hemingway at DAL 15.
Q2 · 2:35(2:35) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 14-M.Bell (59-K.Murray) at DAL 7. 14-M.Bell pushed ob at DAL 31 for 24 yards (1-T.Tucker).
Q2 · 14:55(14:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.