Week 9 · 14 games · November 2, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:07 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Jacksonville went into Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog, won in overtime by one, and the 59 combined points hit the over — about as wild a finish as the slate produced, with a drama index nearly two full points clear of anything else. Chicago's 47-42 win in Cincinnati was the week's other offensive showcase, 89 total points obliterating that over. The real story away from the scoreboard: Carolina went into Lambeau as a 12.5-point underdog and beat Green Bay 16-13, and Minnesota walked out of Detroit — favored by 9.5 — with a three-point win. Chalk had a rough Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Final
Baltimore Ravens28
Miami Dolphins6
Competitive · 2.5Under 34Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 9:46(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (84-T.Washington; 85-G.Dulcich).
Q1 · 2:40(2:40) 47-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q1 · 8:30(8:30) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Final
Atlanta Falcons23
New England Patriots24
Back-and-forth · 4.0Over 47Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:09(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
Q4 · 4:44(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:4039-J.Romo extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Final
Denver Broncos18
Houston Texans15
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.8Under 33NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:18(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 48 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart).
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on HOU-11-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 · 0:44(:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 36 for 25 yards (29-M.Stewart).
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Final
Minnesota Vikings27
Detroit Lions24
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.8Over 51Ford Field
Detroit Lions win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 12:51(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:37(10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith; 44-J.Metellus).
Q2 · 9:43(9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
Final
San Francisco 49ers34
New York Giants24
Competitive · 2.6Over 58MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 17 for -11 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at SF 23. 51-A.Carter to SF 27 for -4 yards (71-T.Williams).
Q2 · 13:14(13:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:20(:20) 3-B.Robinson left end to NYG 37 for 16 yards (27-T.Nubin; 93-R.Nunez-Roches).
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
Chicago Bears47
Cincinnati Bengals42
Instant classic · 6.8Over 89Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:25(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 15:008-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. 15-C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 38 for -10 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at CIN 38.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Final
Carolina Panthers16
Green Bay Packers13
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.9Under 29Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:01(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q3 · 6:42(6:42) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig [95-D.Brown] at CAR 26. 7-T.Moehrig ran ob at GB 38 for 36 yards (23-E.Wilson).
Q1 · 6:42(6:42) 83-S.Williams left end to CAR 15 for 1 yard (56-C.Rozeboom; 8-Ja.Horn). FUMBLES (56-C.Rozeboom), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at CAR 16.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Final
Los Angeles Chargers27
Tennessee Titans20
Back-and-forth · 3.9Over 47Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 11:25(11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:09(7:09) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to LAC 1 for no gain (2-E.Molden; 6-D.Perryman). LAC-99-J.Caldwell was injured during the play.
Q3 · 12:24(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to LAC 40 for 29 yards (3-D.James).
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Indianapolis Colts20
Pittsburgh Steelers27
UpsetCompetitive · 3.2Under 47Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 6:03(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
Q2 · 5:21(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).
Q2 · 11:27(11:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at PIT 45 for -7 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 44.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Final
New Orleans Saints10
Los Angeles Rams34
Wire-to-wire · 1.4Under 44SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 14:14(14:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on NO-4-K.McKinstry, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play.
Q1 · 2:33(2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 22-R.Shaheed (37-Q.Lake, 1-E.Forbes).
Q1 · 0:58(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 18-T.Ferguson to NO 42 for 18 yards (21-J.Reid).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Final (OT)
Jacksonville Jaguars30
Las Vegas Raiders29
Instant classic · 8.5Over 59Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 0:20(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -5 yards (sack split by 41-J.Hines-Allen and 90-E.Ogbah).
OT · 0:16TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Final
Kansas City Chiefs21
Buffalo Bills28
UpsetCompetitive · 3.3Under 49New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 7:34(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
Q2 · 4:15(4:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (24-C.Bishop).
Q1 · 8:05(8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Final
Seattle Seahawks38
Washington Commanders14
Wire-to-wire · 1.5Over 52FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 12:55(12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 83-J.Lane INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Okada [21-D.Witherspoon] at SEA 40. 39-T.Okada pushed ob at SEA 40 for no gain (83-J.Lane).
Q2 · 8:57(8:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-20-Q.Martin has returned to the game.
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Final
Arizona Cardinals27
Dallas Cowboys17
UpsetCompetitive · 2.8Under 44AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 4:04(4:04) 39-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-46-A.Brewer, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at ARI -8. TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:37(10:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ARI 11 for -7 yards (10-J.Sweat).
Q1 · 8:48(8:48) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 18-M.Harrison to ARI 46 for 15 yards (25-T.Bridges). Penalty on DAL-90-S.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.