Week 7 · 15 games · October 19, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:03 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Denver's 33-32 win over the Giants — a 7.5-point home underdog pulling it out by one — is the headline, and the 65 combined points shredded an over in the most emphatic way possible. Green Bay's 27-23 road win in Arizona was the week's wildest probability ride despite the modest margin, with the Packers covering as 7-point favorites on the road. Cincinnati edged Pittsburgh 33-31 in another tight AFC North clash, while Dallas ran Washington off the field 44-22 despite opening as a slight home underdog. The slate ran hot — eight of twelve decided games went over their total.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers31
Cincinnati Bengals33
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.7Over 64Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:31(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:11(:11) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Q4 · 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left (38-D.Ivey).
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Los Angeles Rams35
Jacksonville Jaguars7
Competitive · 1.6Under 42TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:01(8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).
Q1 · 6:43(6:43) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-K.Mumpfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:00(5:00) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 5-T.Atwell. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at LA 21 - No Play.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Final
Las Vegas Raiders0
Kansas City Chiefs31
Wire-to-wire · 1.1Under 31GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 9:31(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at LV 40 for 44 yards (52-E.Roberts; 11-J.Chinn).
Q1 · 5:18(5:18) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 24 for -9 yards (90-C.Omenihu). PENALTY on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at LV 33 - No Play.
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) 29-K.Hunt left guard to KC 43 for 3 yards (98-M.Crosby).
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Final
Miami Dolphins6
Cleveland Browns31
Competitive · 2.2Over 37FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 11:28(11:28) 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick was injured during the play.
Q1 · 2:12(2:12) 28-D.Achane left end pushed ob at CLE 31 for 46 yards (7-T.Campbell).
Q3 · 14:56(14:56) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 28-D.Achane INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Campbell at MIA 34. 7-T.Campbell for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
Final
New England Patriots31
Tennessee Titans13
Competitive · 2.7Over 44Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:55(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:25(7:25) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 10 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-44-K.Chaisson at TEN 4. 44-K.Chaisson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-17-C.Dike, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 · 13:51(13:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 8-S.Diggs to NE 38 for 24 yards (25-X.Woods; 21-R.McCreary).
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets
Final
Carolina Panthers13
New York Jets6
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.8Under 19MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 2:12(2:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NYJ 34 for 11 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
Q2 · 14:56(14:56) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 49 for no gain (9-W.McDonald; 53-M.Walker).
Q4 · 4:34(4:34) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right intended for 83-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 40. 8-Ja.Horn to CAR 40 for no gain (83-J.Reynolds).
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Philadelphia Eagles28
Minnesota Vikings22
Back-and-forth · 4.1Over 50U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 13:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt [98-J.Carter] at MIN 42. 58-J.Hunt for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 8:17(8:17) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 6-D.Smith for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:07(7:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Final
New Orleans Saints14
Chicago Bears26
Competitive · 2.8Under 40Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 13:01(13:01) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 23 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at NO 24.
Q1 · 3:00(3:00) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Q1 · 6:13(6:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 29-Q.Riley at CHI 48. 29-Q.Riley ran ob at CHI 48 for no gain.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
Final
New York Giants32
Denver Broncos33
Back-and-forth · 5.6Over 65Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:02(:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q4 · 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 81-B.Collins. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at DEN 40 - No Play. PENALTY on DEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 2:14(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (22-A.Phillips).
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
Final
Indianapolis Colts38
Los Angeles Chargers24
UpsetCompetitive · 2.5Over 62SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 11:51(11:51) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to LAC 25 for 48 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Q1 · 9:28(9:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to 1-Q.Johnston. PENALTY on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Final
Green Bay Packers27
Arizona Cardinals23
Back-and-forth · 5.6Over 50State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:32(2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at ARI 14 for 15 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ** Injury Update: ARI-10-J.Sweat has returned to the game.
Q4 · 0:32(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at GB 35 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons).
Q4 · 5:58(5:58) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 48 for no gain (58-I.McDuffie).
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Final
Washington Commanders22
Dallas Cowboys44
Competitive · 2.6Over 66AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 4:38(4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:15(13:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 3-G.Pickens. PENALTY on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at WAS 39 - No Play.
Q2 · 0:31(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 35 for 44 yards (2-M.Lattimore).
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Atlanta Falcons10
San Francisco 49ers20
Back-and-forth · 4.0Under 30Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 9:54(9:54) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 55-K.Elliss at ATL 18. 55-K.Elliss to ATL 34 for 16 yards (10-M.Jones).
Q4 · 8:20(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (26-C.Lucas). ** Injury Update: ATL-25-T.Allgeier has returned to the game.
Q4 · 10:51(10:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts ran ob at SF 44 for 19 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers9
Detroit Lions24
Competitive · 2.9Under 33Ford Field
Detroit Lions win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 6:01(6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:49(7:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at TB 44 for -9 yards (0-Y.Diaby). FUMBLES (0-Y.Diaby) [0-Y.Diaby], RECOVERED by TB-95-E.Roberts at TB 40.
Q2 · 10:56(10:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 22 for -12 yards (8-S.Dennis).
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks
Final
Houston Texans19
Seattle Seahawks27
Competitive · 2.7Over 46Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 7:33(7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA -5 for -12 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-51-W.Anderson at SEA -5. TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:14(14:14) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [29-J.Jobe] at HOU 46. 13-E.Jones pushed ob at HOU 18 for 28 yards (21-N.Chubb). PENALTY on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 23.
Q1 · 9:31(9:31) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 18-E.Arroyo pushed ob at HOU 12 for 27 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.