Week 5 · 14 games · October 5, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:03 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
SF needed overtime to beat a Rams team getting 8.5 points, and the drama index was the highest on the slate — a back-and-forth finish that ended 26-23 after the Niners covered neither the spread nor anyone's nerves. New England was the cleaner upset story: winning outright in Buffalo despite being 7.5-point underdogs, holding the total under 43 in a game the market expected to score. Jacksonville beat Kansas City outright as a 3.5-point home underdog, Tennessee snuck past Arizona by a single point as a 7.5-point road dog, and Denver took Philadelphia down in Philly — a week where underdogs went 5-1 against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Final (OT)
San Francisco 49ers26
Los Angeles Rams23
UpsetInstant classic · 7.8Over 49SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 3:41(3:41) 23-K.Williams right tackle to SF 11 for no gain (36-M.Sigle; 2-D.Lenoir).
Q4 · 1:07(1:07) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 2 for 1 yard (95-A.Collins). FUMBLES (95-A.Collins), RECOVERED by SF-95-A.Collins at SF 1.
OT · 5:55(5:55) 18-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns
Final
Minnesota Vikings21
Cleveland Browns17
Back-and-forth · 5.7Over 38FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:30(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 14:05(14:05) 36-Z.Scott right guard to CLE 45 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire, 93-S.Harris). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), RECOVERED by CLE-43-M.Diabate at CLE 45. PENALTY on CLE-93-S.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 45.
Q4 · 11:47(11:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 37 for 38 yards (33-R.Hickman).
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
Final
Miami Dolphins24
Carolina Panthers27
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.0Over 51Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 3:31(3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
Q4 · 4:50(4:50) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:37(6:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIA 36 for -6 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [2-B.Chubb], RECOVERED by MIA-2-B.Chubb at MIA 40. 2-B.Chubb to MIA 42 for 2 yards (82-T.Tremble).
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
Denver Broncos21
Philadelphia Eagles17
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.4Under 38Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:04(:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
Q4 · 8:17(8:17) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 11 for 34 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q2 · 8:12(8:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith to DEN 26 for 52 yards (21-R.Moss).
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Final
Las Vegas Raiders6
Indianapolis Colts40
Competitive · 1.8Under 46Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 9:38(9:38) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-80-I.Thomas at LV 8.
Q2 · 3:59(3:59) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 18-J.Bech INTERCEPTED by 97-L.Latu (90-G.Stewart) at IND 12. 97-L.Latu to IND 12 for no gain (70-S.Forsythe).
Q2 · 14:21(14:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren to LV 21 for 19 yards (36-K.Kelly).
Q4 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NO 13 for -1 yards (90-B.Bresee). FUMBLES (90-B.Bresee), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at NO 14. 31-J.Howden for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 18-D.Slayton to NO 35 for 9 yards (56-D.Davis). FUMBLES (56-D.Davis), RECOVERED by NO-33-J.Sanker at NO 32. 33-J.Sanker pushed ob at NYG 41 for 27 yards (26-D.Singletary).
Q3 · 11:01(11:01) (No Huddle) 6-J.Dart sacked at NO 46 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 46.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Final
Houston Texans44
Baltimore Ravens10
Competitive · 1.5Over 54M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 12:04(12:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BAL 32 for -8 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
Q1 · 4:18(4:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 16 for 29 yards (4-K.Lassiter) [45-E.Speed]. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 14:12(14:12) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BAL 40 for 24 yards (24-M.Starks; 27-T.Tampa).
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets
Final
Dallas Cowboys37
New York Jets22
UpsetCompetitive · 2.5Over 59MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 6:34(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to NYJ 20 for 40 yards (8-A.Cisco) [9-W.McDonald].
Q2 · 2:27(2:27) 20-B.Hall left guard to DAL 13 for 10 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), RECOVERED by DAL-54-S.Williams at DAL 9. NYJ-20-B.Hall was injured during the play.
Q1 · 11:49(11:49) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right tackle pushed ob at DAL 21 for 22 yards (2-J.Thomas).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers38
Seattle Seahawks35
UpsetBack-and-forth · 6.0Over 73Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:58(:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David (90-L.Hall) at SEA 38. 54-L.David to SEA 35 for 3 yards (76-G.Zabel).
Q4 · 3:25(3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:37(1:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka to SEA 2 for 57 yards (8-C.Bryant).
Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals
Final
Tennessee Titans22
Arizona Cardinals21
UpsetCompetitive · 3.2Over 43State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q4 · 0:32(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.
Q4 · 2:00(2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
Detroit Lions37
Cincinnati Bengals24
Competitive · 1.9Over 61Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 4:56(4:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at CIN 39 for -7 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [91-T.Hendrickson], touched at CIN 26, RECOVERED by CIN-55-L.Wilson at CIN 28. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 · 14:49(14:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at CIN 19. 21-A.Robertson to CIN 17 for 2 yards (1-J.Chase).
Q3 · 14:17(14:17) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right intended for 88-M.Gesicki INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at CIN 42. 34-A.Anzalone pushed ob at CIN 28 for 14 yards (1-J.Chase).
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers
Final
Washington Commanders27
Los Angeles Chargers10
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.5Under 37SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 7:44(7:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil (95-J.Newton) at WAS 1. 0-M.Sainristil to WAS 1 for no gain (13-K.Allen).
Q2 · 0:34(:34) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 11-L.McCaffrey to LAC 33 for 50 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q2 · 0:50(:50) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to LAC 43, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-L.McConkey for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 2 - No Play.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Final
New England Patriots23
Buffalo Bills20
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.6Under 43New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:20(:20) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q3 · 2:58(2:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-K.Shakir INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at NE 10. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (10-K.Shakir).
Q1 · 1:54(1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to BUF 10 for 3 yards (14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (14-R.Spillane), touched at BUF 9, RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at BUF 11.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Kansas City Chiefs28
Jacksonville Jaguars31
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.1Over 59TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 2:36(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at JAX 1. 0-D.Lloyd for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:01(1:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q4 · 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 7-B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook (27-C.Conner) at KC -5. Touchback. PENALTY on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at KC 14 - No Play.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.