Week 4 · 16 games · September 28, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:06 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
GB-DAL going 40-40 into overtime is the image of the week — an 80-point brawl that cleared its total by a mile and still couldn't produce a winner, the highest drama index on the slate by a comfortable margin. Chicago pulled the most meaningful upset, going into Las Vegas as a 1.5-point underdog and escaping 25-24, a one-point road win that'll matter in a tight division picture. Jacksonville was the other road team to take money from home chalk, beating San Francisco outright as a 3.5-point underdog at 26-21. The rest of the slate was mostly chalk — Detroit handled Cleveland by 24, Buffalo covered easily against New Orleans.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Final
Seattle Seahawks23
Arizona Cardinals20
Back-and-forth · 4.5Under 43State Farm Stadium
Arizona Cardinals win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:04(:04) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 · 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at ARI 38 for 22 yards (16-M.Melton).
Q4 · 0:33(:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Minnesota Vikings21
Pittsburgh Steelers24
UpsetCompetitive · 3.1Over 45Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 12:28(12:28) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:08(1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q4 · 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [51-N.Herbig]. PENALTY on MIN-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at MIN 39.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
Philadelphia Eagles31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers25
Competitive · 3.1Over 56Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 7:57(7:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Campbell (32-R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-62-G.Barton, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q1 · 12:59(12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:00(12:00) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to TB 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to PHI 47 for 27 yards (22-M.McWilliams).
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
Final
Carolina Panthers13
New England Patriots42
Competitive · 1.5Over 55Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 5:55(5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.
Q1 · 4:19(4:19) 5-R.Dowdle left end pushed ob at NE 40 for 10 yards (51-J.Gibbens). CAR-62-C.Zavala was injured during the play.
Q1 · 3:05(3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
Final
Washington Commanders27
Atlanta Falcons34
Competitive · 3.3Over 61Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta Falcons win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 10:05(10:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 7 for 69 yards (39-J.Reaves).
Q3 · 5:25(5:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at ATL 48. 0-M.Sainristil to ATL 25 for 23 yards (5-D.London).
Q1 · 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to WAS 34 for 26 yards (23-T.Amos).
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
Final
Cleveland Browns10
Detroit Lions34
Competitive · 2.9Under 44Ford Field
Detroit Lions win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 4:36(4:36) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 4-D.Reed [55-D.Barnes] at CLE 39. 4-D.Reed pushed ob at CLE 5 for 34 yards (72-K.Leveston). DET-31-K.Joseph was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 5:41(5:41) 98-A.Huntington and 56-L.Wypler reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:03(10:03) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy to DET 12 for 33 yards (4-D.Reed).
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Final
Tennessee Titans0
Houston Texans26
Competitive · 2.5Under 26NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 11:44(11:44) 6-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q1 · 13:32(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 5-E.Ayomanor to HOU 28 for 33 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q3 · 10:46(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
Final
Los Angeles Chargers18
New York Giants21
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.2Under 39MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 3:47(3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Phillips [0-B.Burns] at NYG 41. 22-A.Phillips to LAC 3 for 56 yards (13-K.Allen). Penalty on LAC-83-T.Conklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 · 0:43(:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 9-T.Harris INTERCEPTED by 97-D.Lawrence at LAC 40. 97-D.Lawrence to LAC 3 for 37 yards (10-J.Herbert).
Q4 · 5:44(5:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson (32-A.Gilman).
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Final
New Orleans Saints19
Buffalo Bills31
Competitive · 3.4Over 50New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 10:58(10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:56(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).
Q2 · 1:31(1:31) (Shotgun) 12-C.Olave pass short right intended for 2-S.Rattler INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop at BUF 1. 24-C.Bishop pushed ob at BUF 14 for 13 yards (75-T.Fuaga). PENALTY on BUF-42-D.Williams, Illegal Blindside Block, 2 yards, enforced at BUF 5.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
Final
Indianapolis Colts20
Los Angeles Rams27
Back-and-forth · 5.2Under 47SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:44(1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam].
Q4 · 3:24(3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:29(11:29) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 22 for -5 yards (33-M.Hilton). FUMBLES (33-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by IND-95-A.Adebawore at LA 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars26
San Francisco 49ers21
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.6Over 47Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:52(2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
Q4 · 3:35(3:35) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 89-L.Farrell to SF 46 for 11 yards (47-D.Gardeck) [98-D.Smoot]. FUMBLES (47-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by JAX-42-A.Wingard at SF 48.
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders
Final
Chicago Bears25
Las Vegas Raiders24
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.6Over 49Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:38(:38) 8-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-J.Blackwell), Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 · 12:27(12:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 22, and recovers at LV 33.
Q3 · 11:44(11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 15-R.Odunze for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Final
Baltimore Ravens20
Kansas City Chiefs37
UpsetCompetitive · 2.4Over 57GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 1:50(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 54-L.Chenal [32-N.Bolton] at KC 16. 54-L.Chenal to KC 16 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
Q1 · 2:17(2:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 47 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook). PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 47.
Q1 · 13:00(13:00) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 23 for 21 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Final (OT)
Green Bay Packers40
Dallas Cowboys40
Instant classic · 8.3Over 80AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys win probability
Biggest swings
OT · 0:01(:01) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
OT · 4:42(4:42) 17-B.Aubrey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 · 0:50(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [1-M.Parsons].
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Final
New York Jets21
Miami Dolphins27
Competitive · 2.8Over 48Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 3:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 0-B.Allen right guard to MIA 1 for 5 yards (23-J.Jones; 21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (23-J.Jones), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 4.
Q2 · 9:26(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:36(9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
Final
Cincinnati Bengals3
Denver Broncos28
Competitive · 1.8Under 31Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 12:33(12:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins to DEN 31 for 19 yards (21-R.Moss).
Q1 · 0:22(:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:05(3:05) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at CIN 23 for 26 yards (44-D.Knight).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.