NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Yards per carry · 2025
Mean rushing yards per carry. Heavy-tailed (one long run moves it); the band reflects that.
- Beats raw by
- 18.1%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 1.04 → 0.85
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.23
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 326
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Yards per carry · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De'Von Achane◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 238 | 5.67 | 4.93 | 4.49 – 5.37 |
| 2 | James Cook◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 309 | 5.25 | 4.81 | 4.39 – 5.22 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 307 | 5.20 | 4.78 | 4.36 – 5.20 |
| 4 | Bijan Robinson◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 288 | 5.14 | 4.74 | 4.32 – 5.16 |
| 5 | Emari Demercado◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 44 | 7.09 | 4.71 | 4.17 – 5.26 |
| 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs◦ provisional | DET | RB | 243 | 5.03 | 4.67 | 4.23 – 5.10 |
| 7 | Jonathan Taylor◦ provisional | IND | RB | 324 | 4.90 | 4.64 | 4.23 – 5.05 |
| 8 | TreVeyon Henderson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 180 | 5.06 | 4.63 | 4.16 – 5.09 |
| 9 | Blake Corum◦ provisional | LA | RB | 145 | 5.14 | 4.62 | 4.14 – 5.11 |
| 10 | Keaton Mitchell◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 59 | 5.78 | 4.60 | 4.07 – 5.14 |
| 11 | J.K. Dobbins◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 153 | 5.05 | 4.60 | 4.12 – 5.08 |
| 12 | Tank Bigsby◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 63 | 5.65 | 4.60 | 4.06 – 5.13 |
| 13 | D'Andre Swift◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 223 | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.14 – 5.03 |
| 14 | Kyren Williams◦ provisional | LA | RB | 259 | 4.83 | 4.59 | 4.15 – 5.02 |
| 15 | Javonte Williams◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 252 | 4.77 | 4.55 | 4.12 – 4.99 |
| 16 | Isaiah Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 43 | 5.49 | 4.52 | 3.97 – 5.06 |
| 17 | Jordan Mason◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 159 | 4.77 | 4.51 | 4.04 – 4.99 |
| 18 | Kenneth Walker III◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 221 | 4.65 | 4.49 | 4.05 – 4.94 |
| 19 | Trey Benson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 29 | 5.52 | 4.48 | 3.93 – 5.04 |
| 20 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 20 | 5.85 | 4.48 | 3.91 – 5.04 |
| 21 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 114 | 4.71 | 4.47 | 3.97 – 4.97 |
| 22 | Kyle Monangai◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 171 | 4.60 | 4.46 | 3.99 – 4.93 |
| 23 | Jeremy McNichols◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 45 | 4.96 | 4.46 | 3.92 – 5.00 |
| 24 | Jaleel McLaughlin◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 37 | 5.05 | 4.46 | 3.91 – 5.01 |
| 25 | Rhamondre Stevenson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 131 | 4.62 | 4.46 | 3.97 – 4.95 |
| 26 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 176 | 4.57 | 4.46 | 3.99 – 4.92 |
| 27 | Rico Dowdle◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 237 | 4.54 | 4.45 | 4.01 – 4.90 |
| 28 | Jaylen Warren◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 211 | 4.54 | 4.45 | 4.00 – 4.90 |
| 29 | Malik Davis◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 52 | 4.81 | 4.45 | 3.91 – 4.99 |
| 30 | Ray Davis◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 58 | 4.74 | 4.44 | 3.91 – 4.98 |
| 31 | David Montgomery◦ provisional | DET | RB | 159 | 4.52 | 4.43 | 3.96 – 4.91 |
| 32 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 18 | 5.17 | 4.43 | 3.87 – 5.00 |
| 33 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 242 | 4.47 | 4.43 | 3.99 – 4.86 |
| 34 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 84 | 4.55 | 4.42 | 3.91 – 4.94 |
| 35 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | LV | RB | 22 | 4.73 | 4.41 | 3.85 – 4.97 |
| 36 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 112 | 4.46 | 4.41 | 3.91 – 4.91 |
| 37 | Trevor Etienne◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 20 | 4.70 | 4.41 | 3.85 – 4.97 |
| 38 | Jawhar Jordan◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 43 | 4.49 | 4.40 | 3.86 – 4.95 |
| 39 | British Brooks◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 17 | 4.59 | 4.40 | 3.84 – 4.97 |
| 40 | Hunter Luepke◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 16 | 4.44 | 4.39 | 3.83 – 4.96 |
| 41 | Omarion Hampton◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 124 | 4.40 | 4.39 | 3.90 – 4.89 |
| 42 | Breece Hall◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 243 | 4.38 | 4.39 | 3.95 – 4.83 |
| 43 | Chase Brown◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 233 | 4.37 | 4.38 | 3.94 – 4.83 |
| 44 | Brian Robinson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 92 | 4.35 | 4.38 | 3.87 – 4.89 |
| 45 | Audric Estimé◦ provisional | NO | RB | 46 | 4.30 | 4.38 | 3.84 – 4.92 |
| 46 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 25 | 4.24 | 4.38 | 3.82 – 4.94 |
| 47 | Najee Harris◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 15 | 4.07 | 4.38 | 3.81 – 4.94 |
| 48 | LeQuint Allen Jr.◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 23 | 4.09 | 4.37 | 3.81 – 4.93 |
| 49 | Braelon Allen◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 19 | 4.00 | 4.37 | 3.81 – 4.93 |
| 50 | Rachaad White◦ provisional | TB | RB | 133 | 4.30 | 4.37 | 3.88 – 4.85 |
| 51 | Chris Brooks◦ provisional | GB | RB | 27 | 3.93 | 4.36 | 3.80 – 4.91 |
| 52 | Kendre Miller◦ provisional | NO | RB | 47 | 4.11 | 4.36 | 3.81 – 4.90 |
| 53 | Jaylen Wright◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 70 | 4.11 | 4.34 | 3.82 – 4.87 |
| 54 | DJ Giddens◦ provisional | IND | RB | 26 | 3.69 | 4.34 | 3.78 – 4.90 |
| 55 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 50 | 4.00 | 4.34 | 3.80 – 4.88 |
| 56 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 16 | 3.25 | 4.34 | 3.77 – 4.90 |
| 57 | Jaret Patterson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 41 | 3.88 | 4.33 | 3.79 – 4.88 |
| 58 | Travis Etienne◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 260 | 4.26 | 4.33 | 3.90 – 4.76 |
| 59 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 176 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 3.86 – 4.79 |
| 60 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 122 | 4.15 | 4.32 | 3.83 – 4.82 |
| 61 | George Holani◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 22 | 3.32 | 4.32 | 3.76 – 4.88 |
| 62 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 132 | 4.15 | 4.32 | 3.83 – 4.81 |
| 63 | Tahj Brooks◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 16 | 2.81 | 4.32 | 3.75 – 4.88 |
| 64 | Zavier Scott◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 32 | 3.56 | 4.32 | 3.76 – 4.87 |
| 65 | Raheim Sanders◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 27 | 3.41 | 4.32 | 3.76 – 4.87 |
| 66 | Kimani Vidal◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 155 | 4.15 | 4.31 | 3.84 – 4.79 |
| 67 | Terrell Jennings◦ provisional | NE | RB | 23 | 3.17 | 4.31 | 3.75 – 4.87 |
| 68 | Ty Chandler◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 17 | 2.76 | 4.31 | 3.75 – 4.88 |
| 69 | Hassan Haskins◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 17 | 2.76 | 4.31 | 3.75 – 4.88 |
| 70 | Tyjae Spears◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 72 | 3.93 | 4.31 | 3.78 – 4.83 |
| 71 | Cam Skattebo◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 102 | 4.04 | 4.31 | 3.80 – 4.81 |
| 72 | Jerome Ford◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 24 | 3.04 | 4.30 | 3.74 – 4.86 |
| 73 | Evan Hull◦ provisional | NO | RB | 19 | 2.53 | 4.29 | 3.72 – 4.85 |
| 74 | Jaydon Blue◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 38 | 3.39 | 4.29 | 3.74 – 4.84 |
| 75 | Brashard Smith◦ provisional | KC | RB | 44 | 3.43 | 4.28 | 3.73 – 4.82 |
| 76 | Devin Neal◦ provisional | NO | RB | 57 | 3.61 | 4.28 | 3.74 – 4.81 |
| 77 | Emanuel Wilson◦ provisional | GB | RB | 125 | 3.97 | 4.27 | 3.78 – 4.77 |
| 78 | Isiah Pacheco◦ provisional | KC | RB | 118 | 3.92 | 4.26 | 3.77 – 4.76 |
| 79 | James Conner◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 32 | 2.97 | 4.26 | 3.71 – 4.82 |
| 80 | Sean Tucker◦ provisional | TB | RB | 86 | 3.72 | 4.25 | 3.74 – 4.77 |
| 81 | Bhayshul Tuten◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 84 | 3.65 | 4.24 | 3.72 – 4.76 |
| 82 | Saquon Barkley◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 281 | 4.06 | 4.24 | 3.81 – 4.66 |
| 83 | Kaleb Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 28 | 2.46 | 4.24 | 3.68 – 4.80 |
| 84 | Zach Charbonnet◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 184 | 3.97 | 4.24 | 3.77 – 4.70 |
| 85 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 92 | 3.62 | 4.22 | 3.71 – 4.73 |
| 86 | Josh Jacobs◦ provisional | GB | RB | 234 | 3.97 | 4.22 | 3.77 – 4.66 |
| 87 | Chuba Hubbard◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 135 | 3.79 | 4.21 | 3.73 – 4.70 |
| 88 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 119 | 3.67 | 4.20 | 3.70 – 4.70 |
| 89 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | KC | RB | 163 | 3.75 | 4.18 | 3.70 – 4.65 |
| 90 | RJ Harvey◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 147 | 3.67 | 4.17 | 3.69 – 4.65 |
| 91 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 131 | 3.60 | 4.16 | 3.67 – 4.65 |
| 92 | Bam Knight◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 83 | 3.24 | 4.16 | 3.64 – 4.68 |
| 93 | Tyler Allgeier◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 143 | 3.59 | 4.15 | 3.66 – 4.63 |
| 94 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | SF | RB | 311 | 3.87 | 4.13 | 3.72 – 4.55 |
| 95 | Ollie Gordon II◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 70 | 2.84 | 4.12 | 3.59 – 4.64 |
| 96 | Dylan Sampson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 65 | 2.69 | 4.11 | 3.58 – 4.64 |
| 97 | Woody Marks◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 196 | 3.59 | 4.09 | 3.63 – 4.55 |
| 98 | Quinshon Judkins◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 231 | 3.59 | 4.06 | 3.61 – 4.50 |
| 99 | Ashton Jeanty◦ provisional | LV | RB | 267 | 3.65 | 4.06 | 3.63 – 4.49 |
| 100 | Bucky Irving◦ provisional | TB | RB | 173 | 3.40 | 4.05 | 3.58 – 4.52 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).