NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per rush · 2025
Mean EPA per carry. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 21.1%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.16 → 0.13
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.17
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 903
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per rush · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor◦ provisional | IND | RB | 324 | +0.06 | -0.02 | -0.06 – +0.03 |
| 2 | D'Andre Swift◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 223 | +0.07 | -0.02 | -0.07 – +0.03 |
| 3 | De'Von Achane◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 238 | +0.06 | -0.02 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 4 | Blake Corum◦ provisional | LA | RB | 145 | +0.11 | -0.02 | -0.07 – +0.03 |
| 5 | Javonte Williams◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 252 | +0.05 | -0.02 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 6 | Derrick Henry◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 307 | +0.03 | -0.02 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 7 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | KC | RB | 163 | +0.06 | -0.03 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 8 | Rachaad White◦ provisional | TB | RB | 133 | +0.08 | -0.03 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 9 | James Cook◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 309 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 10 | TreVeyon Henderson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 180 | +0.05 | -0.03 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 11 | Kyren Williams◦ provisional | LA | RB | 259 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.07 – +0.02 |
| 12 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 112 | +0.06 | -0.03 | -0.08 – +0.02 |
| 13 | Tank Bigsby◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 63 | +0.12 | -0.03 | -0.08 – +0.02 |
| 14 | J.K. Dobbins◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 153 | +0.03 | -0.03 | -0.08 – +0.02 |
| 15 | Kyle Monangai◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 171 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.08 – +0.02 |
| 16 | Jaylen Warren◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 211 | -0.00 | -0.03 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 17 | Audric Estimé◦ provisional | NO | RB | 46 | +0.10 | -0.03 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 18 | David Montgomery◦ provisional | DET | RB | 159 | +0.00 | -0.04 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 19 | Rico Dowdle◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 237 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 20 | Jahmyr Gibbs◦ provisional | DET | RB | 243 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 21 | Keaton Mitchell◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 59 | +0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 22 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 50 | +0.06 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 23 | Zach Charbonnet◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 184 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 24 | Chase Brown◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 233 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.08 – +0.01 |
| 25 | Omarion Hampton◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 124 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 26 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 114 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 27 | Ray Davis◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 58 | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 28 | Terrell Jennings◦ provisional | NE | RB | 23 | +0.10 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 29 | Jeremy McNichols◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 45 | +0.03 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 30 | Jaleel McLaughlin◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 37 | +0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 31 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 84 | -0.00 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 32 | Malik Davis◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 52 | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 33 | Brian Robinson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 92 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 34 | British Brooks◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 17 | +0.13 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 35 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 132 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 36 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 119 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 37 | Raheim Sanders◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 27 | +0.03 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 38 | DJ Giddens◦ provisional | IND | RB | 26 | +0.00 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 39 | Trey Benson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 29 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 40 | Jordan Mason◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 159 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 41 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 176 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 42 | Najee Harris◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 15 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 43 | Jaret Patterson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 41 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 44 | Sean Tucker◦ provisional | TB | RB | 86 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 45 | Bijan Robinson◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 288 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.00 |
| 46 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 18 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 47 | Trevor Etienne◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 20 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 48 | Tyjae Spears◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 72 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 49 | Kendre Miller◦ provisional | NO | RB | 47 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 50 | Hunter Luepke◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 16 | -0.10 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 51 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 20 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 52 | James Conner◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 32 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 53 | Isaiah Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 43 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 54 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 16 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 55 | Jerome Ford◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 24 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 56 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 176 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.00 |
| 57 | Hassan Haskins◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 17 | -0.17 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 58 | Emanuel Wilson◦ provisional | GB | RB | 125 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.00 |
| 59 | LeQuint Allen Jr.◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 23 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.01 |
| 60 | Jaylen Wright◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 70 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.00 |
| 61 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 92 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.09 – +0.00 |
| 62 | Tahj Brooks◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 16 | -0.25 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.01 |
| 63 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 25 | -0.19 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 64 | Chris Brooks◦ provisional | GB | RB | 27 | -0.18 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 65 | Josh Jacobs◦ provisional | GB | RB | 234 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.09 – -0.00 |
| 66 | Kenneth Walker III◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 221 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.09 – -0.00 |
| 67 | Ty Chandler◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 17 | -0.32 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 68 | Tyler Allgeier◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 143 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.09 – +0.00 |
| 69 | Emari Demercado◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 44 | -0.16 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 70 | Devin Neal◦ provisional | NO | RB | 57 | -0.14 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 71 | Jaydon Blue◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 38 | -0.20 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 72 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | SF | RB | 311 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.09 – -0.00 |
| 73 | Bhayshul Tuten◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 84 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 74 | Ollie Gordon II◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 70 | -0.14 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 75 | Travis Etienne◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 260 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.09 – -0.00 |
| 76 | Kaleb Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 28 | -0.28 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 77 | Kimani Vidal◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 155 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 78 | Evan Hull◦ provisional | NO | RB | 19 | -0.41 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 79 | Jawhar Jordan◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 43 | -0.21 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 80 | Cam Skattebo◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 102 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 81 | Zavier Scott◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 32 | -0.28 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 82 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 122 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 83 | Brashard Smith◦ provisional | KC | RB | 44 | -0.22 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 84 | Isiah Pacheco◦ provisional | KC | RB | 118 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 85 | Braelon Allen◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 19 | -0.46 | -0.05 | -0.10 – +0.00 |
| 86 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | LV | RB | 22 | -0.41 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 87 | George Holani◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 22 | -0.42 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 88 | Chuba Hubbard◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 135 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.00 |
| 89 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 242 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.01 |
| 90 | Saquon Barkley◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 281 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.01 |
| 91 | Breece Hall◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 243 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.01 |
| 92 | Rhamondre Stevenson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 131 | -0.14 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.01 |
| 93 | Bam Knight◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 83 | -0.20 | -0.05 | -0.10 – -0.01 |
| 94 | Quinshon Judkins◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 231 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.10 – -0.01 |
| 95 | Dylan Sampson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 65 | -0.26 | -0.06 | -0.11 – -0.01 |
| 96 | RJ Harvey◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 147 | -0.16 | -0.06 | -0.11 – -0.01 |
| 97 | Woody Marks◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 196 | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.11 – -0.01 |
| 98 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 131 | -0.22 | -0.06 | -0.11 – -0.02 |
| 99 | Bucky Irving◦ provisional | TB | RB | 173 | -0.21 | -0.07 | -0.11 – -0.02 |
| 100 | Ashton Jeanty◦ provisional | LV | RB | 267 | -0.24 | -0.09 | -0.13 – -0.04 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).