NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per dropback · 2024
Mean QB EPA per dropback.
- Beats raw by
- 14.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.17 → 0.14
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.47
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 157
- dropbacks to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per dropback · 2024 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | dropbacks | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 494 | +0.35 | +0.28 | +0.18 – +0.38 |
| 2 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 568 | +0.30 | +0.24 | +0.15 – +0.34 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 497 | +0.26 | +0.21 | +0.11 – +0.31 |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 421 | +0.20 | +0.16 | +0.05 – +0.27 |
| 5 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 612 | +0.19 | +0.16 | +0.07 – +0.25 |
| 6 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 701 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.06 – +0.23 |
| 7 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 482 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.03 – +0.23 |
| 8 | Marcus Mariota◦ provisional | WAS | QB | 47 | +0.41 | +0.13 | -0.05 – +0.31 |
| 9 | Derek Carr | NO | QB | 290 | +0.16 | +0.12 | +0.00 – +0.24 |
| 10 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 442 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.01 – +0.22 |
| 11 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 545 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.02 – +0.21 |
| 12 | Tanner McKee◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 47 | +0.31 | +0.11 | -0.07 – +0.29 |
| 13 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 528 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 – +0.20 |
| 14 | Malik Willis◦ provisional | GB | QB | 63 | +0.24 | +0.10 | -0.07 – +0.27 |
| 15 | Joe Milton III◦ provisional | NE | QB | 29 | +0.41 | +0.10 | -0.09 – +0.29 |
| 16 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 617 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 – +0.19 |
| 17 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 570 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 – +0.19 |
| 18 | Tyrod Taylor◦ provisional | NYJ | QB | 25 | +0.44 | +0.10 | -0.09 – +0.29 |
| 19 | Mitchell Trubisky◦ provisional | BUF | QB | 26 | +0.37 | +0.09 | -0.10 – +0.28 |
| 20 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 399 | +0.10 | +0.08 | -0.02 – +0.19 |
| 21 | Michael Penix Jr.◦ provisional | ATL | QB | 109 | +0.13 | +0.08 | -0.08 – +0.24 |
| 22 | Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 593 | +0.08 | +0.08 | -0.02 – +0.17 |
| 23 | Joshua Dobbs◦ provisional | SF | QB | 48 | +0.13 | +0.06 | -0.12 – +0.24 |
| 24 | Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 546 | +0.06 | +0.06 | -0.04 – +0.15 |
| 25 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 591 | +0.06 | +0.06 | -0.04 – +0.15 |
| 26 | Kenny Pickett◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 46 | +0.07 | +0.05 | -0.13 – +0.23 |
| 27 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 478 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.06 – +0.15 |
| 28 | Jimmy Garoppolo◦ provisional | LA | QB | 45 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.14 – +0.23 |
| 29 | Justin Fields | PIT | QB | 177 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.10 – +0.18 |
| 30 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 629 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.05 – +0.13 |
| 31 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 305 | +0.02 | +0.03 | -0.09 – +0.15 |
| 32 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 627 | +0.02 | +0.02 | -0.07 – +0.11 |
| 33 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | QB | 254 | +0.01 | +0.02 | -0.10 – +0.15 |
| 34 | Joe Flacco | IND | QB | 267 | +0.01 | +0.02 | -0.10 – +0.15 |
| 35 | Mason Rudolph | TEN | QB | 237 | -0.01 | +0.01 | -0.11 – +0.14 |
| 36 | Russell Wilson | PIT | QB | 368 | -0.01 | +0.01 | -0.10 – +0.12 |
| 37 | Davis Mills◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 38 | -0.14 | +0.01 | -0.18 – +0.19 |
| 38 | Mac Jones | JAX | QB | 279 | -0.01 | +0.01 | -0.11 – +0.13 |
| 39 | Tommy DeVito◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 50 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.18 – +0.17 |
| 40 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 307 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.12 – +0.11 |
| 41 | Trey Lance◦ provisional | DAL | QB | 45 | -0.19 | -0.01 | -0.19 – +0.17 |
| 42 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 583 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.10 – +0.09 |
| 43 | Brandon Allen◦ provisional | SF | QB | 32 | -0.39 | -0.03 | -0.22 – +0.16 |
| 44 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 414 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.14 – +0.07 |
| 45 | Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 321 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 46 | Tim Boyle◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 51 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -0.21 – +0.14 |
| 47 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 374 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 48 | Andy Dalton | CAR | QB | 168 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.18 – +0.10 |
| 49 | Jameis Winston | CLE | QB | 326 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 50 | Jake Haener◦ provisional | NO | QB | 45 | -0.33 | -0.04 | -0.22 – +0.14 |
| 51 | Skylar Thompson◦ provisional | MIA | QB | 39 | -0.40 | -0.04 | -0.23 – +0.14 |
| 52 | Tyler Huntley◦ provisional | MIA | QB | 149 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.19 – +0.10 |
| 53 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 636 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.14 – +0.04 |
| 54 | Bailey Zappe◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 32 | -0.53 | -0.05 | -0.24 – +0.13 |
| 55 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 371 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.17 – +0.06 |
| 56 | Desmond Ridder◦ provisional | LV | QB | 94 | -0.23 | -0.06 | -0.22 – +0.10 |
| 57 | Anthony Richardson | IND | QB | 277 | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.20 – +0.05 |
| 58 | Gardner Minshew | LV | QB | 333 | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.20 – +0.04 |
| 59 | Jacoby Brissett | NE | QB | 179 | -0.21 | -0.09 | -0.23 – +0.05 |
| 60 | Drew Lock | NYG | QB | 193 | -0.21 | -0.10 | -0.24 – +0.04 |
| 61 | Will Levis | TEN | QB | 344 | -0.19 | -0.12 | -0.23 – -0.00 |
| 62 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | 250 | -0.25 | -0.13 | -0.26 – -0.01 |
| 63 | Spencer Rattler | NO | QB | 250 | -0.30 | -0.17 | -0.30 – -0.04 |
| 64 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 126 | -0.56 | -0.23 | -0.38 – -0.07 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).