NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2024
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 182 TE · 61 WR
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2024 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 141 | 81.6% | 76.0% | 70.9% – 80.8% |
| 2 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 94 | 83.0% | 75.9% | 71.6% – 80.0% |
| 3 | Pat Freiermuth◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 78 | 83.3% | 75.6% | 71.1% – 79.9% |
| 4 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 111 | 79.3% | 74.9% | 70.7% – 79.0% |
| 5 | Mark Andrews◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 69 | 79.7% | 74.3% | 69.7% – 78.7% |
| 6 | Drew Sample◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 22 | 90.9% | 74.3% | 69.1% – 79.2% |
| 7 | Erick All◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 22 | 90.9% | 74.3% | 69.1% – 79.2% |
| 8 | Noah Gray◦ provisional | KC | TE | 49 | 81.6% | 74.3% | 69.4% – 78.9% |
| 9 | Mike Gesicki◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 83 | 78.3% | 74.2% | 69.7% – 78.5% |
| 10 | Dallas Goedert◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 52 | 80.8% | 74.2% | 69.3% – 78.7% |
| 11 | Cole Kmet◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 59 | 79.7% | 74.1% | 69.3% – 78.6% |
| 12 | Nate Adkins◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 15 | 93.3% | 73.9% | 68.6% – 78.9% |
| 13 | Will Dissly◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 64 | 78.1% | 73.8% | 69.1% – 78.3% |
| 14 | Trey McBride◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 147 | 75.5% | 73.7% | 69.7% – 77.6% |
| 15 | Elijah Higgins◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 24 | 83.3% | 73.6% | 68.4% – 78.5% |
| 16 | Nick Vannett◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 20 | 85.0% | 73.5% | 68.3% – 78.5% |
| 17 | Lucas Krull◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 23 | 82.6% | 73.4% | 68.3% – 78.4% |
| 18 | AJ Barner◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 38 | 79.0% | 73.4% | 68.4% – 78.2% |
| 19 | Stone Smartt◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 19 | 84.2% | 73.4% | 68.2% – 78.4% |
| 20 | Grant Calcaterra◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 30 | 80.0% | 73.4% | 68.3% – 78.2% |
| 21 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | NE | TE | 59 | 76.3% | 73.3% | 68.5% – 77.8% |
| 22 | Daniel Bellinger◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 17 | 82.3% | 73.1% | 67.8% – 78.2% |
| 23 | Ja'Tavion Sanders◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 43 | 76.7% | 73.1% | 68.2% – 77.9% |
| 24 | Josh Oliver◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 28 | 78.6% | 73.1% | 68.0% – 78.0% |
| 25 | Tanner Hudson◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 24 | 79.2% | 73.1% | 67.9% – 78.0% |
| 26 | Brock Wright◦ provisional | DET | TE | 16 | 81.3% | 73.0% | 67.7% – 78.0% |
| 27 | Brenton Strange◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 53 | 75.5% | 73.0% | 68.1% – 77.6% |
| 28 | Noah Fant◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 64 | 75.0% | 73.0% | 68.2% – 77.5% |
| 29 | Eric Saubert◦ provisional | SF | TE | 14 | 78.6% | 72.7% | 67.4% – 77.8% |
| 30 | Luke Schoonmaker◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 36 | 75.0% | 72.7% | 67.7% – 77.6% |
| 31 | Darnell Washington◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 25 | 76.0% | 72.7% | 67.5% – 77.7% |
| 32 | Payne Durham◦ provisional | TB | TE | 14 | 78.6% | 72.7% | 67.4% – 77.8% |
| 33 | Brock Bowers◦ provisional | LV | TE | 153 | 73.2% | 72.7% | 68.6% – 76.6% |
| 34 | Foster Moreau◦ provisional | NO | TE | 43 | 74.4% | 72.7% | 67.7% – 77.5% |
| 35 | Juwan Johnson◦ provisional | NO | TE | 68 | 73.5% | 72.6% | 67.9% – 77.1% |
| 36 | Taysom Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 31 | 74.2% | 72.6% | 67.4% – 77.5% |
| 37 | Chig Okonkwo◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 71 | 73.2% | 72.5% | 67.8% – 77.0% |
| 38 | Josh Whyle◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 38 | 73.7% | 72.5% | 67.5% – 77.3% |
| 39 | Harrison Bryant◦ provisional | LV | TE | 12 | 75.0% | 72.5% | 67.0% – 77.6% |
| 40 | Travis Kelce◦ provisional | KC | TE | 134 | 72.4% | 72.3% | 68.1% – 76.4% |
| 41 | Isaiah Likely◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 58 | 72.4% | 72.3% | 67.5% – 77.0% |
| 42 | Sam LaPorta◦ provisional | DET | TE | 83 | 72.3% | 72.3% | 67.7% – 76.7% |
| 43 | Tommy Tremble◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 32 | 71.9% | 72.2% | 67.1% – 77.1% |
| 44 | Luke Farrell◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 17 | 70.6% | 72.1% | 66.8% – 77.2% |
| 45 | Johnny Mundt◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 27 | 70.4% | 72.0% | 66.8% – 77.0% |
| 46 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 12 | 66.7% | 71.9% | 66.5% – 77.1% |
| 47 | Pharaoh Brown◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 12 | 66.7% | 71.9% | 66.5% – 77.1% |
| 48 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 62 | 80.7% | 71.9% | 65.1% – 78.4% |
| 49 | Cade Stover◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 22 | 68.2% | 71.8% | 66.5% – 76.9% |
| 50 | Zach Ertz◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 93 | 71.0% | 71.8% | 67.3% – 76.2% |
| 51 | Tucker Kraft◦ provisional | GB | TE | 71 | 70.4% | 71.8% | 67.0% – 76.3% |
| 52 | Andrew Ogletree◦ provisional | IND | TE | 14 | 64.3% | 71.7% | 66.3% – 76.9% |
| 53 | Brevyn Spann-Ford◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 14 | 64.3% | 71.7% | 66.3% – 76.9% |
| 54 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 67 | 70.2% | 71.7% | 66.9% – 76.3% |
| 55 | Tyler Conklin◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 73 | 69.9% | 71.6% | 66.8% – 76.1% |
| 56 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 13 | 61.5% | 71.6% | 66.1% – 76.7% |
| 57 | Hayden Hurst◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 13 | 61.5% | 71.6% | 66.1% – 76.7% |
| 58 | John Bates◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 13 | 61.5% | 71.6% | 66.1% – 76.7% |
| 59 | Jordan Akins◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 58 | 69.0% | 71.5% | 66.6% – 76.2% |
| 60 | Dawson Knox◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 33 | 66.7% | 71.4% | 66.3% – 76.4% |
| 61 | Charlie Woerner◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 12 | 58.3% | 71.4% | 66.0% – 76.6% |
| 62 | Theo Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 43 | 67.4% | 71.4% | 66.3% – 76.2% |
| 63 | Michael Mayer◦ provisional | LV | TE | 32 | 65.6% | 71.3% | 66.1% – 76.2% |
| 64 | Jeremy Ruckert◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 28 | 64.3% | 71.2% | 66.0% – 76.2% |
| 65 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 100 | 76.0% | 71.1% | 65.1% – 76.8% |
| 66 | Jake Ferguson◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 86 | 68.6% | 71.1% | 66.5% – 75.5% |
| 67 | Julian Hill◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 20 | 60.0% | 71.1% | 65.7% – 76.2% |
| 68 | Adam Trautman◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 22 | 59.1% | 70.9% | 65.5% – 76.0% |
| 69 | Cade Otton◦ provisional | TB | TE | 87 | 67.8% | 70.8% | 66.2% – 75.3% |
| 70 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | NE | TE | 97 | 68.0% | 70.8% | 66.3% – 75.2% |
| 71 | T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 62 | 66.1% | 70.7% | 65.8% – 75.4% |
| 72 | Durham Smythe◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 17 | 52.9% | 70.6% | 65.2% – 75.8% |
| 73 | DeMario Douglas | NE | WR | 87 | 75.9% | 70.6% | 64.3% – 76.6% |
| 74 | Davis Allen◦ provisional | LA | TE | 13 | 46.2% | 70.5% | 65.1% – 75.8% |
| 75 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 90 | 75.6% | 70.5% | 64.3% – 76.4% |
| 76 | Greg Dulcich◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 12 | 41.7% | 70.4% | 64.9% – 75.6% |
| 77 | Adam Thielen | CAR | WR | 62 | 77.4% | 70.3% | 63.4% – 76.9% |
| 78 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 175 | 72.6% | 70.1% | 65.1% – 74.9% |
| 79 | Mo Alie-Cox◦ provisional | IND | TE | 23 | 52.2% | 70.0% | 64.7% – 75.2% |
| 80 | Colby Parkinson◦ provisional | LA | TE | 49 | 61.2% | 69.9% | 64.9% – 74.8% |
| 81 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 107 | 73.8% | 69.9% | 64.0% – 75.6% |
| 82 | Kyle Pitts◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 74 | 63.5% | 69.7% | 64.9% – 74.4% |
| 83 | David Njoku◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 99 | 64.6% | 69.6% | 65.0% – 74.0% |
| 84 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 138 | 72.5% | 69.6% | 64.1% – 74.8% |
| 85 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 29 | 82.8% | 69.4% | 61.2% – 77.1% |
| 86 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | WR | 113 | 72.6% | 69.2% | 63.4% – 74.9% |
| 87 | Dalton Schultz◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 85 | 62.4% | 69.1% | 64.4% – 73.7% |
| 88 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 55 | 74.6% | 68.5% | 61.3% – 75.4% |
| 89 | Stefon Diggs | HOU | WR | 64 | 73.4% | 68.4% | 61.4% – 75.0% |
| 90 | Kylen Granson◦ provisional | IND | TE | 31 | 45.2% | 68.3% | 63.0% – 73.5% |
| 91 | Dalton Kincaid◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 75 | 58.7% | 68.3% | 63.5% – 73.0% |
| 92 | Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 76 | 72.4% | 68.2% | 61.6% – 74.6% |
| 93 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 50 | 74.0% | 68.0% | 60.6% – 75.1% |
| 94 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 53 | 73.6% | 68.0% | 60.6% – 74.9% |
| 95 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 28 | 78.6% | 68.0% | 59.6% – 75.8% |
| 96 | Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 87 | 71.3% | 67.9% | 61.5% – 74.1% |
| 97 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 40 | 75.0% | 67.8% | 60.0% – 75.2% |
| 98 | Tylan Wallace◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 12 | 91.7% | 67.8% | 58.6% – 76.4% |
| 99 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | DET | WR | 45 | 73.3% | 67.4% | 59.8% – 74.7% |
| 100 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 14 | 85.7% | 67.3% | 58.2% – 75.9% |
| 101 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 118 | 69.5% | 67.3% | 61.5% – 73.0% |
| 102 | DJ Moore | CHI | WR | 142 | 69.0% | 67.2% | 61.7% – 72.5% |
| 103 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 38 | 73.7% | 67.2% | 59.2% – 74.7% |
| 104 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | 72.7% | 67.1% | 59.4% – 74.4% |
| 105 | DeAndre Hopkins | KC | WR | 80 | 70.0% | 67.0% | 60.4% – 73.4% |
| 106 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 22 | 77.3% | 66.8% | 58.2% – 75.1% |
| 107 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS | WR | 64 | 70.3% | 66.8% | 59.7% – 73.5% |
| 108 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 97 | 69.1% | 66.8% | 60.5% – 72.8% |
| 109 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 99 | 68.7% | 66.5% | 60.3% – 72.5% |
| 110 | Malik Washington◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 36 | 72.2% | 66.5% | 58.5% – 74.1% |
| 111 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | 74.1% | 66.5% | 58.0% – 74.5% |
| 112 | Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 113 | 68.1% | 66.4% | 60.4% – 72.1% |
| 113 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 85 | 68.2% | 66.1% | 59.5% – 72.4% |
| 114 | Derius Davis◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 17 | 76.5% | 66.0% | 57.0% – 74.5% |
| 115 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 46 | 69.6% | 65.9% | 58.2% – 73.2% |
| 116 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 154 | 66.9% | 65.8% | 60.4% – 71.0% |
| 117 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 110 | 67.3% | 65.8% | 59.7% – 71.6% |
| 118 | Josh Downs | IND | WR | 107 | 67.3% | 65.8% | 59.7% – 71.7% |
| 119 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 130 | 66.9% | 65.7% | 60.0% – 71.2% |
| 120 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 25 | 72.0% | 65.7% | 57.1% – 73.8% |
| 121 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 45 | 68.9% | 65.5% | 57.8% – 72.9% |
| 122 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 100 | 67.0% | 65.5% | 59.3% – 71.5% |
| 123 | Malik Heath◦ provisional | GB | WR | 13 | 76.9% | 65.5% | 56.3% – 74.3% |
| 124 | Tutu Atwell | LA | WR | 62 | 67.7% | 65.4% | 58.3% – 72.3% |
| 125 | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 140 | 66.4% | 65.4% | 59.8% – 70.8% |
| 126 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 110 | 66.4% | 65.2% | 59.1% – 71.1% |
| 127 | Jake Bobo◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 18 | 72.2% | 65.2% | 56.2% – 73.7% |
| 128 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 58 | 67.2% | 65.1% | 57.8% – 72.1% |
| 129 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 32 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 56.8% – 72.9% |
| 130 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 123 | 65.8% | 64.9% | 59.1% – 70.6% |
| 131 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 46 | 67.4% | 64.9% | 57.2% – 72.3% |
| 132 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 26 | 69.2% | 64.9% | 56.4% – 73.1% |
| 133 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 154 | 65.6% | 64.9% | 59.5% – 70.1% |
| 134 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 154 | 65.6% | 64.9% | 59.5% – 70.1% |
| 135 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 74 | 66.2% | 64.8% | 58.0% – 71.4% |
| 136 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 71 | 66.2% | 64.8% | 57.8% – 71.5% |
| 137 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 14 | 71.4% | 64.6% | 55.4% – 73.4% |
| 138 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 42 | 66.7% | 64.5% | 56.7% – 72.1% |
| 139 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | 66.0% | 64.3% | 56.6% – 71.7% |
| 140 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 30 | 66.7% | 64.3% | 55.9% – 72.3% |
| 141 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 16 | 68.8% | 64.3% | 55.1% – 73.0% |
| 142 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 13 | 69.2% | 64.2% | 54.9% – 73.1% |
| 143 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | WR | 135 | 64.4% | 64.0% | 58.3% – 69.6% |
| 144 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 37 | 64.9% | 63.8% | 55.7% – 71.5% |
| 145 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 91 | 63.7% | 63.5% | 57.0% – 69.8% |
| 146 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 58 | 63.8% | 63.4% | 56.1% – 70.5% |
| 147 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 63.3% | 54.0% – 72.2% |
| 148 | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 172 | 63.4% | 63.3% | 58.1% – 68.4% |
| 149 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 41 | 63.4% | 63.2% | 55.3% – 70.9% |
| 150 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 117 | 63.2% | 63.2% | 57.2% – 69.0% |
| 151 | Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 73 | 63.0% | 63.0% | 56.1% – 69.8% |
| 152 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 100 | 63.0% | 63.0% | 56.7% – 69.2% |
| 153 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF | WR | 81 | 63.0% | 63.0% | 56.3% – 69.6% |
| 154 | Tank Dell | HOU | WR | 81 | 63.0% | 63.0% | 56.3% – 69.6% |
| 155 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 159 | 62.9% | 62.9% | 57.5% – 68.2% |
| 156 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 56 | 62.5% | 62.8% | 55.4% – 70.0% |
| 157 | Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 72 | 62.5% | 62.8% | 55.8% – 69.5% |
| 158 | Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 69 | 62.3% | 62.7% | 55.6% – 69.5% |
| 159 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 50 | 62.0% | 62.6% | 54.9% – 70.0% |
| 160 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 58 | 62.1% | 62.6% | 55.2% – 69.7% |
| 161 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | KC | WR | 15 | 60.0% | 62.5% | 53.2% – 71.4% |
| 162 | Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 79 | 62.0% | 62.5% | 55.7% – 69.1% |
| 163 | Bub Means◦ provisional | NO | WR | 15 | 60.0% | 62.5% | 53.2% – 71.4% |
| 164 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | 61.5% | 62.4% | 54.8% – 69.7% |
| 165 | Ryan Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 20 | 60.0% | 62.3% | 53.4% – 71.0% |
| 166 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | 58.3% | 62.3% | 52.9% – 71.4% |
| 167 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | 58.3% | 62.3% | 52.9% – 71.4% |
| 168 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 112 | 61.6% | 62.1% | 56.0% – 68.1% |
| 169 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 35 | 60.0% | 62.0% | 53.7% – 69.9% |
| 170 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 61 | 60.7% | 61.9% | 54.6% – 69.0% |
| 171 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 40 | 60.0% | 61.9% | 53.8% – 69.7% |
| 172 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 53 | 60.4% | 61.8% | 54.3% – 69.2% |
| 173 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | WR | 91 | 60.4% | 61.5% | 54.9% – 67.9% |
| 174 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 52 | 59.6% | 61.5% | 53.9% – 68.9% |
| 175 | Jerry Jeudy | CLE | WR | 148 | 60.8% | 61.5% | 55.9% – 66.9% |
| 176 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 109 | 60.6% | 61.5% | 55.3% – 67.5% |
| 177 | Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 106 | 60.4% | 61.4% | 55.1% – 67.5% |
| 178 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 33 | 57.6% | 61.2% | 52.8% – 69.3% |
| 179 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 61 | 59.0% | 61.1% | 53.7% – 68.2% |
| 180 | Elijah Moore | CLE | WR | 102 | 59.8% | 61.0% | 54.7% – 67.2% |
| 181 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 135 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 55.2% – 66.6% |
| 182 | Chris Conley◦ provisional | SF | WR | 12 | 50.0% | 61.0% | 51.4% – 70.1% |
| 183 | Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 99 | 59.6% | 60.9% | 54.5% – 67.2% |
| 184 | Davante Adams | NYJ | WR | 142 | 59.9% | 60.8% | 55.1% – 66.4% |
| 185 | Trey Palmer◦ provisional | TB | WR | 22 | 54.5% | 60.8% | 51.9% – 69.4% |
| 186 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 47 | 57.5% | 60.6% | 52.8% – 68.2% |
| 187 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | 54.2% | 60.6% | 51.8% – 69.1% |
| 188 | DJ Turner◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | 55.2% | 60.6% | 52.0% – 68.8% |
| 189 | Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 67 | 58.2% | 60.5% | 53.4% – 67.5% |
| 190 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 26 | 53.8% | 60.3% | 51.6% – 68.8% |
| 191 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 51 | 56.9% | 60.3% | 52.6% – 67.7% |
| 192 | Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 81 | 58.0% | 60.2% | 53.4% – 66.9% |
| 193 | Xavier Legette | CAR | WR | 85 | 57.6% | 59.9% | 53.2% – 66.5% |
| 194 | David Moore◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 57 | 56.1% | 59.7% | 52.3% – 67.0% |
| 195 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 22 | 50.0% | 59.6% | 50.7% – 68.3% |
| 196 | George Pickens | PIT | WR | 103 | 57.3% | 59.5% | 53.1% – 65.7% |
| 197 | Odell Beckham Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 59.4% | 50.3% – 68.2% |
| 198 | Keenan Allen | CHI | WR | 123 | 56.9% | 59.0% | 53.0% – 64.9% |
| 199 | Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional | SF | WR | 47 | 53.2% | 58.8% | 50.9% – 66.5% |
| 200 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 54 | 53.7% | 58.7% | 51.1% – 66.1% |
| 201 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 29 | 48.3% | 58.3% | 49.7% – 66.7% |
| 202 | Mike Woods◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 17 | 41.2% | 58.3% | 49.1% – 67.3% |
| 203 | Troy Franklin◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 53 | 52.8% | 58.3% | 50.7% – 65.8% |
| 204 | Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 72 | 54.2% | 58.3% | 51.2% – 65.2% |
| 205 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 60 | 53.3% | 58.3% | 50.8% – 65.5% |
| 206 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | 42.1% | 58.1% | 49.0% – 67.0% |
| 207 | Alec Pierce | IND | WR | 69 | 53.6% | 58.1% | 50.9% – 65.1% |
| 208 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 26 | 46.2% | 58.0% | 49.3% – 66.6% |
| 209 | Simi Fehoko◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 16 | 37.5% | 57.8% | 48.5% – 66.9% |
| 210 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 18 | 38.9% | 57.6% | 48.4% – 66.6% |
| 211 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 41 | 48.8% | 57.4% | 49.3% – 65.3% |
| 212 | Johnny Wilson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 15 | 33.3% | 57.2% | 47.9% – 66.4% |
| 213 | Rome Odunze | CHI | WR | 101 | 53.5% | 57.1% | 50.7% – 63.4% |
| 214 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 42 | 47.6% | 56.8% | 48.7% – 64.7% |
| 215 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 116 | 53.4% | 56.8% | 50.6% – 62.8% |
| 216 | Keon Coleman◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 58 | 50.0% | 56.7% | 49.2% – 64.1% |
| 217 | Jermaine Burton◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 14 | 28.6% | 56.7% | 47.2% – 65.9% |
| 218 | Calvin Ridley | TEN | WR | 120 | 53.3% | 56.6% | 50.5% – 62.6% |
| 219 | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 76 | 51.3% | 56.6% | 49.6% – 63.4% |
| 220 | Amari Cooper | BUF | WR | 85 | 51.8% | 56.5% | 49.7% – 63.2% |
| 221 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | NO | WR | 29 | 41.4% | 56.1% | 47.5% – 64.6% |
| 222 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 54 | 48.1% | 56.1% | 48.4% – 63.6% |
| 223 | Diontae Johnson | HOU | WR | 67 | 49.3% | 55.9% | 48.6% – 63.0% |
| 224 | Jalen Brooks◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 30 | 40.0% | 55.5% | 46.9% – 63.9% |
| 225 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | NO | WR | 44 | 43.2% | 54.8% | 46.8% – 62.7% |
| 226 | Demarcus Robinson | LA | WR | 66 | 47.0% | 54.7% | 47.4% – 61.9% |
| 227 | Jonathan Mingo◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 42 | 40.5% | 53.9% | 45.8% – 61.9% |
| 228 | Ja'Lynn Polk◦ provisional | NE | WR | 34 | 35.3% | 53.2% | 44.7% – 61.5% |
| 229 | Adonai Mitchell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 55 | 41.8% | 53.0% | 45.4% – 60.6% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).