NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2023
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 183
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2023 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De'Von Achane◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 103 | 55.3% | 44.5% | 39.7% – 49.3% |
| 2 | Kyren Williams | LA | RB | 229 | 47.6% | 43.5% | 39.5% – 47.5% |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 272 | 46.7% | 43.3% | 39.5% – 47.2% |
| 4 | Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | 209 | 45.9% | 42.4% | 38.3% – 46.5% |
| 5 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | GB | RB | 142 | 47.2% | 42.2% | 37.7% – 46.7% |
| 6 | David Montgomery | DET | RB | 220 | 44.5% | 41.7% | 37.7% – 45.8% |
| 7 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 199 | 44.7% | 41.7% | 37.6% – 45.8% |
| 8 | D'Andre Swift | PHI | RB | 229 | 43.7% | 41.3% | 37.4% – 45.3% |
| 9 | Keaton Mitchell◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 47 | 51.1% | 41.0% | 35.7% – 46.3% |
| 10 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 28 | 57.1% | 40.8% | 35.4% – 46.5% |
| 11 | James Cook | BUF | RB | 237 | 42.2% | 40.5% | 36.6% – 44.5% |
| 12 | D'Onta Foreman◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 109 | 44.0% | 40.5% | 35.8% – 45.2% |
| 13 | James Conner | ARI | RB | 210 | 41.9% | 40.3% | 36.2% – 44.4% |
| 14 | Jaleel McLaughlin◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 76 | 44.7% | 40.2% | 35.3% – 45.3% |
| 15 | Rhamondre Stevenson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 156 | 42.3% | 40.2% | 35.8% – 44.6% |
| 16 | Latavius Murray◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 79 | 44.3% | 40.2% | 35.2% – 45.2% |
| 17 | Royce Freeman◦ provisional | LA | RB | 77 | 44.2% | 40.1% | 35.1% – 45.1% |
| 18 | Jordan Mason◦ provisional | SF | RB | 40 | 47.5% | 40.0% | 34.7% – 45.4% |
| 19 | Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | 253 | 40.7% | 39.7% | 35.9% – 43.6% |
| 20 | Ty Chandler◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 102 | 42.2% | 39.7% | 35.0% – 44.5% |
| 21 | Ronnie Rivers◦ provisional | LA | RB | 32 | 46.9% | 39.6% | 34.2% – 45.2% |
| 22 | Zach Charbonnet◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 108 | 41.7% | 39.6% | 34.9% – 44.3% |
| 23 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 30 | 46.7% | 39.5% | 34.1% – 45.1% |
| 24 | Damien Harris◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 23 | 47.8% | 39.4% | 33.9% – 45.1% |
| 25 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 84 | 41.7% | 39.4% | 34.5% – 44.4% |
| 26 | Zack Moss◦ provisional | IND | RB | 183 | 40.4% | 39.4% | 35.2% – 43.6% |
| 27 | Tony Jones◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 26 | 46.2% | 39.3% | 33.9% – 44.9% |
| 28 | Alexander Mattison◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 180 | 40.0% | 39.2% | 35.0% – 43.4% |
| 29 | Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 257 | 39.7% | 39.1% | 35.3% – 43.0% |
| 30 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 206 | 39.8% | 39.1% | 35.1% – 43.2% |
| 31 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 30 | 43.3% | 39.1% | 33.6% – 44.6% |
| 32 | Ameer Abdullah◦ provisional | LV | RB | 15 | 46.7% | 39.0% | 33.4% – 44.7% |
| 33 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 51 | 41.2% | 39.0% | 33.8% – 44.3% |
| 34 | Pierre Strong◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 64 | 40.6% | 39.0% | 33.9% – 44.1% |
| 35 | Tyjae Spears◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 100 | 40.0% | 38.9% | 34.2% – 43.7% |
| 36 | Kendre Miller◦ provisional | NO | RB | 41 | 41.5% | 38.9% | 33.6% – 44.3% |
| 37 | Jaylen Warren◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 149 | 39.6% | 38.9% | 34.6% – 43.4% |
| 38 | Elijah Mitchell◦ provisional | SF | RB | 75 | 40.0% | 38.8% | 33.9% – 43.9% |
| 39 | Cam Akers◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 60 | 40.0% | 38.8% | 33.7% – 44.0% |
| 40 | Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 256 | 39.1% | 38.8% | 35.0% – 42.6% |
| 41 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 135 | 39.3% | 38.7% | 34.3% – 43.3% |
| 42 | Roschon Johnson◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 81 | 39.5% | 38.7% | 33.8% – 43.7% |
| 43 | Patrick Taylor◦ provisional | GB | RB | 32 | 40.6% | 38.7% | 33.3% – 44.2% |
| 44 | Darrynton Evans◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 32 | 40.6% | 38.7% | 33.3% – 44.2% |
| 45 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 182 | 39.0% | 38.7% | 34.5% – 42.9% |
| 46 | Jonathan Taylor◦ provisional | IND | RB | 169 | 39.1% | 38.7% | 34.5% – 43.0% |
| 47 | Emari Demercado◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 58 | 39.7% | 38.7% | 33.6% – 43.9% |
| 48 | Trey Sermon◦ provisional | IND | RB | 35 | 40.0% | 38.6% | 33.3% – 44.1% |
| 49 | Craig Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | RB | 41 | 39.0% | 38.5% | 33.2% – 43.9% |
| 50 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 65 | 38.5% | 38.4% | 33.4% – 43.5% |
| 51 | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | RB | 219 | 38.4% | 38.4% | 34.4% – 42.4% |
| 52 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 238 | 38.2% | 38.3% | 34.4% – 42.2% |
| 53 | Kevin Harris◦ provisional | NE | RB | 16 | 37.5% | 38.3% | 32.7% – 44.0% |
| 54 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 53 | 37.7% | 38.2% | 33.1% – 43.5% |
| 55 | Salvon Ahmed◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 22 | 36.4% | 38.1% | 32.6% – 43.8% |
| 56 | La'Mical Perine◦ provisional | KC | RB | 22 | 36.4% | 38.1% | 32.6% – 43.8% |
| 57 | Israel Abanikanda◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 22 | 36.4% | 38.1% | 32.6% – 43.8% |
| 58 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 85 | 37.6% | 38.1% | 33.3% – 43.1% |
| 59 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 41 | 36.6% | 38.0% | 32.8% – 43.4% |
| 60 | Boston Scott◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 20 | 35.0% | 38.0% | 32.5% – 43.7% |
| 61 | Chase Edmonds◦ provisional | TB | RB | 49 | 36.7% | 38.0% | 32.9% – 43.3% |
| 62 | Trayveon Williams◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 15 | 33.3% | 38.0% | 32.4% – 43.7% |
| 63 | Melvin Gordon◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 26 | 34.6% | 37.9% | 32.5% – 43.5% |
| 64 | Devin Singletary | HOU | RB | 216 | 37.5% | 37.9% | 33.9% – 41.9% |
| 65 | Brian Robinson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 179 | 37.4% | 37.9% | 33.8% – 42.1% |
| 66 | Jahmyr Gibbs◦ provisional | DET | RB | 182 | 37.4% | 37.9% | 33.7% – 42.1% |
| 67 | Jerick McKinnon◦ provisional | KC | RB | 21 | 33.3% | 37.9% | 32.3% – 43.5% |
| 68 | Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 280 | 37.5% | 37.8% | 34.2% – 41.6% |
| 69 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 133 | 36.8% | 37.7% | 33.3% – 42.2% |
| 70 | Zamir White◦ provisional | LV | RB | 104 | 36.5% | 37.7% | 33.1% – 42.4% |
| 71 | Rico Dowdle◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 89 | 36.0% | 37.6% | 32.8% – 42.4% |
| 72 | Matt Breida◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 55 | 34.5% | 37.5% | 32.4% – 42.7% |
| 73 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 50 | 34.0% | 37.4% | 32.3% – 42.7% |
| 74 | Tank Bigsby◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 50 | 34.0% | 37.4% | 32.3% – 42.7% |
| 75 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 129 | 35.7% | 37.3% | 32.8% – 41.8% |
| 76 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | 248 | 36.3% | 37.2% | 33.4% – 41.0% |
| 77 | Eric Gray◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 17 | 23.5% | 37.1% | 31.6% – 42.8% |
| 78 | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 187 | 35.8% | 37.1% | 33.0% – 41.3% |
| 79 | Raheem Blackshear◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 15 | 20.0% | 37.0% | 31.4% – 42.7% |
| 80 | Chris Brooks◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 19 | 21.1% | 36.7% | 31.3% – 42.4% |
| 81 | Joshua Kelley◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 107 | 33.6% | 36.6% | 32.0% – 41.3% |
| 82 | Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 269 | 35.3% | 36.5% | 32.9% – 40.3% |
| 83 | Sean Tucker◦ provisional | TB | RB | 15 | 13.3% | 36.5% | 30.9% – 42.2% |
| 84 | Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 219 | 34.7% | 36.4% | 32.5% – 40.4% |
| 85 | Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | 233 | 34.8% | 36.4% | 32.5% – 40.3% |
| 86 | AJ Dillon◦ provisional | GB | RB | 178 | 34.3% | 36.4% | 32.2% – 40.6% |
| 87 | Darrell Henderson◦ provisional | LA | RB | 46 | 28.3% | 36.3% | 31.2% – 41.6% |
| 88 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn◦ provisional | TB | RB | 24 | 20.8% | 36.3% | 30.9% – 41.9% |
| 89 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 214 | 34.6% | 36.3% | 32.4% – 40.3% |
| 90 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 179 | 34.1% | 36.3% | 32.1% – 40.4% |
| 91 | Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 224 | 34.4% | 36.2% | 32.3% – 40.1% |
| 92 | Ezekiel Elliott | NE | RB | 184 | 33.1% | 35.8% | 31.7% – 39.9% |
| 93 | Deuce Vaughn◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 23 | 13.0% | 35.5% | 30.1% – 41.1% |
| 94 | Keaontay Ingram◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 35 | 20.0% | 35.4% | 30.2% – 40.8% |
| 95 | Chase Brown◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 44 | 22.7% | 35.3% | 30.2% – 40.6% |
| 96 | Isaiah Spiller◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 37 | 18.9% | 35.1% | 29.9% – 40.5% |
| 97 | D'Ernest Johnson◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 41 | 19.5% | 34.9% | 29.8% – 40.2% |
| 98 | Dalvin Cook◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 67 | 25.4% | 34.9% | 30.0% – 39.9% |
| 99 | Jerome Ford | CLE | RB | 206 | 31.1% | 34.5% | 30.6% – 38.5% |
| 100 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire◦ provisional | KC | RB | 70 | 24.3% | 34.5% | 29.6% – 39.4% |
| 101 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | NO | RB | 106 | 25.5% | 33.6% | 29.1% – 38.3% |
| 102 | Rachaad White | TB | RB | 272 | 30.1% | 33.5% | 29.9% – 37.1% |
| 103 | Dameon Pierce◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 145 | 24.1% | 32.1% | 27.9% – 36.4% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).