NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per dropback · 2023
Mean QB EPA per dropback.
- Beats raw by
- 14.9%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.17 → 0.14
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.47
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 151
- dropbacks to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per dropback · 2023 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | dropbacks | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 469 | +0.31 | +0.23 | +0.13 – +0.34 |
| 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 589 | +0.21 | +0.16 | +0.07 – +0.26 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 631 | +0.19 | +0.15 | +0.06 – +0.25 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 605 | +0.15 | +0.12 | +0.03 – +0.22 |
| 5 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 609 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.02 – +0.21 |
| 6 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 636 | +0.13 | +0.10 | +0.01 – +0.20 |
| 7 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 494 | +0.12 | +0.09 | -0.01 – +0.19 |
| 8 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 535 | +0.11 | +0.09 | -0.01 – +0.19 |
| 9 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 575 | +0.11 | +0.09 | -0.01 – +0.18 |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | 326 | +0.11 | +0.08 | -0.04 – +0.20 |
| 11 | Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 551 | +0.10 | +0.08 | -0.02 – +0.18 |
| 12 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 610 | +0.08 | +0.07 | -0.03 – +0.16 |
| 13 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 622 | +0.08 | +0.07 | -0.03 – +0.16 |
| 14 | Mason Rudolph◦ provisional | PIT | QB | 80 | +0.18 | +0.06 | -0.11 – +0.23 |
| 15 | Jake Browning | CIN | QB | 268 | +0.09 | +0.06 | -0.07 – +0.18 |
| 16 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 528 | +0.06 | +0.05 | -0.05 – +0.15 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz◦ provisional | LA | QB | 27 | +0.30 | +0.05 | -0.15 – +0.24 |
| 18 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 486 | +0.06 | +0.04 | -0.06 – +0.15 |
| 19 | Nick Mullens | MIN | QB | 159 | +0.08 | +0.04 | -0.11 – +0.19 |
| 20 | Derek Carr | NO | QB | 581 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.06 – +0.13 |
| 21 | Anthony Richardson◦ provisional | IND | QB | 93 | +0.07 | +0.03 | -0.14 – +0.19 |
| 22 | Jarrett Stidham◦ provisional | DEN | QB | 73 | +0.07 | +0.02 | -0.15 – +0.20 |
| 23 | C.J. Beathard◦ provisional | JAX | QB | 60 | +0.08 | +0.02 | -0.16 – +0.20 |
| 24 | Andy Dalton◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 61 | +0.07 | +0.02 | -0.16 – +0.20 |
| 25 | Tyler Huntley◦ provisional | BAL | QB | 41 | +0.09 | +0.02 | -0.17 – +0.21 |
| 26 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 388 | +0.02 | +0.01 | -0.10 – +0.12 |
| 27 | Tyrod Taylor | NYG | QB | 192 | +0.01 | +0.01 | -0.14 – +0.15 |
| 28 | Sam Darnold◦ provisional | SF | QB | 51 | -0.00 | +0.00 | -0.18 – +0.18 |
| 29 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 602 | -0.00 | +0.00 | -0.09 – +0.09 |
| 30 | Joe Flacco | CLE | QB | 213 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.14 – +0.14 |
| 31 | Taylor Heinicke◦ provisional | ATL | QB | 142 | -0.01 | -0.00 | -0.16 – +0.15 |
| 32 | Drew Lock◦ provisional | SEA | QB | 83 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.18 – +0.16 |
| 33 | Gardner Minshew | IND | QB | 527 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.11 – +0.09 |
| 34 | Davis Mills◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 42 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.21 – +0.17 |
| 35 | Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 491 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.13 – +0.08 |
| 36 | Marcus Mariota◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 26 | -0.20 | -0.03 | -0.22 – +0.17 |
| 37 | Cooper Rush◦ provisional | DAL | QB | 25 | -0.21 | -0.03 | -0.22 – +0.17 |
| 38 | Will Levis | TEN | QB | 282 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.15 – +0.10 |
| 39 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | QB | 367 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 40 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 290 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.16 – +0.09 |
| 41 | Brian Hoyer◦ provisional | LV | QB | 43 | -0.20 | -0.04 | -0.23 – +0.14 |
| 42 | Jameis Winston◦ provisional | NO | QB | 49 | -0.20 | -0.05 | -0.23 – +0.14 |
| 43 | Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | QB | 183 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.20 – +0.09 |
| 44 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | 260 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.18 – +0.07 |
| 45 | Desmond Ridder | ATL | QB | 420 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.16 – +0.05 |
| 46 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | 187 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.20 – +0.08 |
| 47 | Jeff Driskel◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 29 | -0.38 | -0.06 | -0.25 – +0.13 |
| 48 | Justin Fields | CHI | QB | 416 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.18 – +0.04 |
| 49 | Mitchell Trubisky◦ provisional | PIT | QB | 114 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.23 – +0.09 |
| 50 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | QB | 347 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.20 – +0.03 |
| 51 | Blaine Gabbert◦ provisional | KC | QB | 36 | -0.45 | -0.09 | -0.28 – +0.10 |
| 52 | Tyson Bagent◦ provisional | CHI | QB | 149 | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.24 – +0.06 |
| 53 | Easton Stick | LAC | QB | 187 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.24 – +0.05 |
| 54 | Case Keenum◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 59 | -0.35 | -0.10 | -0.28 – +0.08 |
| 55 | Brett Rypien◦ provisional | LA | QB | 40 | -0.49 | -0.10 | -0.29 – +0.09 |
| 56 | Mac Jones | NE | QB | 368 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.22 – +0.01 |
| 57 | Sam Howell | WAS | QB | 679 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.21 – -0.03 |
| 58 | PJ Walker◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 121 | -0.29 | -0.13 | -0.29 – +0.03 |
| 59 | Tim Boyle◦ provisional | NYJ | QB | 86 | -0.36 | -0.13 | -0.30 – +0.04 |
| 60 | Tommy DeVito | NYG | QB | 215 | -0.23 | -0.13 | -0.27 – +0.00 |
| 61 | Joshua Dobbs | MIN | QB | 450 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.24 – -0.03 |
| 62 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 117 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.30 – +0.01 |
| 63 | Trevor Siemian | NYJ | QB | 161 | -0.34 | -0.17 | -0.32 – -0.03 |
| 64 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 191 | -0.32 | -0.18 | -0.32 – -0.04 |
| 65 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | QB | 413 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -0.29 – -0.07 |
| 66 | Clayton Tune◦ provisional | ARI | QB | 28 | -1.24 | -0.19 | -0.39 – +0.00 |
| 67 | Bailey Zappe | NE | QB | 236 | -0.35 | -0.21 | -0.34 – -0.08 |
| 68 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 589 | -0.27 | -0.21 | -0.31 – -0.12 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).