NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2022
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 563
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2022 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 260 | 48.9% | 43.3% | 40.5% – 46.1% |
| 2 | Isiah Pacheco◦ provisional | KC | RB | 170 | 48.8% | 42.6% | 39.6% – 45.6% |
| 3 | J.K. Dobbins◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 92 | 53.3% | 42.5% | 39.3% – 45.7% |
| 4 | Elijah Mitchell◦ provisional | SF | RB | 45 | 64.4% | 42.5% | 39.2% – 45.8% |
| 5 | AJ Dillon◦ provisional | GB | RB | 186 | 47.3% | 42.4% | 39.4% – 45.3% |
| 6 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | GB | RB | 213 | 46.5% | 42.3% | 39.4% – 45.2% |
| 7 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 144 | 47.9% | 42.2% | 39.1% – 45.3% |
| 8 | Josh Jacobs◦ provisional | LV | RB | 341 | 44.3% | 42.1% | 39.4% – 44.8% |
| 9 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 53 | 54.7% | 41.9% | 38.7% – 45.2% |
| 10 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 303 | 43.6% | 41.7% | 39.0% – 44.5% |
| 11 | Caleb Huntley◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 76 | 47.4% | 41.5% | 38.3% – 44.7% |
| 12 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | DET | RB | 263 | 43.0% | 41.4% | 38.6% – 44.3% |
| 13 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 176 | 43.8% | 41.4% | 38.5% – 44.4% |
| 14 | Benny Snell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 20 | 60.0% | 41.4% | 38.0% – 44.8% |
| 15 | Tyler Allgeier◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 211 | 43.1% | 41.4% | 38.5% – 44.3% |
| 16 | Matt Breida◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 54 | 48.1% | 41.4% | 38.1% – 44.6% |
| 17 | Alexander Mattison◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 74 | 46.0% | 41.3% | 38.1% – 44.5% |
| 18 | James Cook◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 89 | 44.9% | 41.3% | 38.1% – 44.5% |
| 19 | Jordan Mason◦ provisional | SF | RB | 43 | 48.8% | 41.3% | 38.0% – 44.6% |
| 20 | James Conner◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 183 | 42.6% | 41.2% | 38.2% – 44.2% |
| 21 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 181 | 42.5% | 41.2% | 38.2% – 44.1% |
| 22 | Darrel Williams◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 21 | 52.4% | 41.1% | 37.8% – 44.5% |
| 23 | Gus Edwards◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 87 | 43.7% | 41.1% | 38.0% – 44.3% |
| 24 | Ezekiel Elliott◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 231 | 42.0% | 41.1% | 38.2% – 44.0% |
| 25 | Chuba Hubbard◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 95 | 43.2% | 41.1% | 37.9% – 44.2% |
| 26 | Brian Robinson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 205 | 41.9% | 41.0% | 38.1% – 44.0% |
| 27 | Joshua Kelley◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 69 | 43.5% | 41.0% | 37.8% – 44.3% |
| 28 | Latavius Murray◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 172 | 41.9% | 41.0% | 38.0% – 44.0% |
| 29 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 177 | 41.8% | 41.0% | 38.0% – 44.0% |
| 30 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 204 | 41.7% | 41.0% | 38.1% – 43.9% |
| 31 | D'Onta Foreman◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 204 | 41.7% | 41.0% | 38.1% – 43.9% |
| 32 | Ronald Jones◦ provisional | KC | RB | 17 | 47.1% | 40.9% | 37.6% – 44.3% |
| 33 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 49 | 42.9% | 40.9% | 37.6% – 44.2% |
| 34 | Corey Clement◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 15 | 46.7% | 40.9% | 37.5% – 44.3% |
| 35 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 96 | 41.7% | 40.9% | 37.7% – 44.0% |
| 36 | Damien Harris◦ provisional | NE | RB | 106 | 41.5% | 40.8% | 37.7% – 44.0% |
| 37 | DeeJay Dallas◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 35 | 42.9% | 40.8% | 37.6% – 44.2% |
| 38 | Raheem Blackshear◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 23 | 43.5% | 40.8% | 37.5% – 44.2% |
| 39 | Jaylen Warren◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 77 | 41.6% | 40.8% | 37.6% – 44.0% |
| 40 | Marlon Mack◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 16 | 43.8% | 40.8% | 37.5% – 44.2% |
| 41 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 26 | 42.3% | 40.8% | 37.5% – 44.1% |
| 42 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 129 | 41.1% | 40.8% | 37.7% – 43.9% |
| 43 | Breece Hall◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 80 | 41.3% | 40.8% | 37.6% – 44.0% |
| 44 | D'Andre Swift◦ provisional | DET | RB | 100 | 41.0% | 40.8% | 37.6% – 43.9% |
| 45 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire◦ provisional | KC | RB | 71 | 40.8% | 40.7% | 37.5% – 44.0% |
| 46 | Jaret Patterson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 17 | 41.2% | 40.7% | 37.4% – 44.1% |
| 47 | Travis Etienne◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 221 | 40.7% | 40.7% | 37.9% – 43.6% |
| 48 | Rashaad Penny◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 57 | 40.4% | 40.7% | 37.5% – 44.0% |
| 49 | Joe Mixon◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 210 | 40.5% | 40.7% | 37.8% – 43.6% |
| 50 | Rhamondre Stevenson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 210 | 40.5% | 40.7% | 37.8% – 43.6% |
| 51 | Cam Akers◦ provisional | LA | RB | 188 | 40.4% | 40.6% | 37.7% – 43.6% |
| 52 | Dare Ogunbowale◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 43 | 39.5% | 40.6% | 37.4% – 43.9% |
| 53 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 193 | 40.4% | 40.6% | 37.7% – 43.6% |
| 54 | Najee Harris◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 272 | 40.4% | 40.6% | 37.9% – 43.4% |
| 55 | Eno Benjamin◦ provisional | NO | RB | 78 | 39.7% | 40.6% | 37.4% – 43.8% |
| 56 | Boston Scott◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 54 | 38.9% | 40.6% | 37.3% – 43.8% |
| 57 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 30 | 36.7% | 40.5% | 37.2% – 43.9% |
| 58 | Kyren Williams◦ provisional | LA | RB | 35 | 37.1% | 40.5% | 37.2% – 43.8% |
| 59 | Kevin Harris◦ provisional | NE | RB | 18 | 33.3% | 40.5% | 37.2% – 43.9% |
| 60 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | SF | RB | 246 | 39.8% | 40.5% | 37.6% – 43.3% |
| 61 | Sony Michel◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 36 | 36.1% | 40.5% | 37.2% – 43.8% |
| 62 | Gary Brightwell◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 31 | 35.5% | 40.5% | 37.2% – 43.8% |
| 63 | Zack Moss◦ provisional | IND | RB | 93 | 38.7% | 40.4% | 37.3% – 43.6% |
| 64 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 123 | 39.0% | 40.4% | 37.4% – 43.5% |
| 65 | Mike Boone◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 24 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.8% |
| 66 | Travis Homer◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 19 | 31.6% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.8% |
| 67 | Mark Ingram◦ provisional | NO | RB | 64 | 37.5% | 40.4% | 37.2% – 43.6% |
| 68 | Brandon Bolden◦ provisional | LV | RB | 17 | 29.4% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.8% |
| 69 | Dontrell Hilliard◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 22 | 31.8% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.7% |
| 70 | Avery Williams◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 22 | 31.8% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.7% |
| 71 | Zamir White◦ provisional | LV | RB | 17 | 29.4% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.8% |
| 72 | Javonte Williams◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 47 | 36.2% | 40.4% | 37.1% – 43.7% |
| 73 | Hassan Haskins◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 25 | 32.0% | 40.4% | 37.0% – 43.7% |
| 74 | Leonard Fournette◦ provisional | TB | RB | 189 | 39.1% | 40.3% | 37.4% – 43.3% |
| 75 | Craig Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | RB | 23 | 30.4% | 40.3% | 37.0% – 43.7% |
| 76 | Royce Freeman◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 41 | 34.2% | 40.3% | 37.0% – 43.6% |
| 77 | Trestan Ebner◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 24 | 29.2% | 40.3% | 36.9% – 43.6% |
| 78 | J.D. McKissic◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 22 | 27.3% | 40.2% | 36.9% – 43.6% |
| 79 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn◦ provisional | TB | RB | 17 | 23.5% | 40.2% | 36.9% – 43.6% |
| 80 | Jonathan Taylor◦ provisional | IND | RB | 192 | 38.5% | 40.2% | 37.3% – 43.1% |
| 81 | Melvin Gordon◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 90 | 36.7% | 40.2% | 37.0% – 43.3% |
| 82 | Deon Jackson◦ provisional | IND | RB | 68 | 35.3% | 40.1% | 37.0% – 43.4% |
| 83 | Malik Davis◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 38 | 31.6% | 40.1% | 36.9% – 43.5% |
| 84 | Phillip Lindsay◦ provisional | IND | RB | 16 | 18.8% | 40.1% | 36.8% – 43.5% |
| 85 | Jonathan Williams◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 37 | 29.7% | 40.1% | 36.8% – 43.4% |
| 86 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | LA | RB | 18 | 16.7% | 40.0% | 36.7% – 43.3% |
| 87 | Justin Jackson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 43 | 30.2% | 40.0% | 36.7% – 43.3% |
| 88 | Isaiah Spiller◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 18 | 16.7% | 40.0% | 36.7% – 43.3% |
| 89 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 109 | 35.8% | 39.9% | 36.8% – 43.0% |
| 90 | Jerick McKinnon◦ provisional | KC | RB | 72 | 33.3% | 39.9% | 36.7% – 43.1% |
| 91 | Dameon Pierce◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 220 | 37.7% | 39.9% | 37.0% – 42.8% |
| 92 | Derrick Henry◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 349 | 38.4% | 39.8% | 37.2% – 42.5% |
| 93 | JaMycal Hasty◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 46 | 28.3% | 39.8% | 36.5% – 43.1% |
| 94 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 223 | 37.2% | 39.7% | 36.9% – 42.6% |
| 95 | Rachaad White◦ provisional | TB | RB | 130 | 35.4% | 39.7% | 36.7% – 42.8% |
| 96 | James Robinson◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 110 | 34.5% | 39.7% | 36.6% – 42.8% |
| 97 | Keaontay Ingram◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 27 | 18.5% | 39.7% | 36.4% – 43.0% |
| 98 | Bam Knight◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 85 | 32.9% | 39.7% | 36.6% – 42.9% |
| 99 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 149 | 35.6% | 39.6% | 36.6% – 42.7% |
| 100 | Tyrion Davis-Price◦ provisional | SF | RB | 34 | 20.6% | 39.6% | 36.3% – 42.9% |
| 101 | Nyheim Hines◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 24 | 12.5% | 39.6% | 36.3% – 42.9% |
| 102 | David Montgomery◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 201 | 36.3% | 39.6% | 36.7% – 42.5% |
| 103 | Darrell Henderson◦ provisional | LA | RB | 70 | 30.0% | 39.5% | 36.4% – 42.8% |
| 104 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 114 | 33.3% | 39.5% | 36.4% – 42.6% |
| 105 | Chase Edmonds◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 68 | 27.9% | 39.4% | 36.2% – 42.6% |
| 106 | Saquon Barkley◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 295 | 35.9% | 39.1% | 36.4% – 41.8% |
| 107 | Dalvin Cook◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 264 | 34.1% | 38.6% | 35.8% – 41.4% |
| 108 | Kenneth Walker III◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 228 | 33.3% | 38.6% | 35.8% – 41.4% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).