NFL · Empirical Bayes

True-Talent Leaderboards

A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.

EPA per target · 2022

Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.

Beats raw by: 24.4%; lower out-of-sample error
RMSE raw → shrunk: 0.38 → 0.29; odd vs. even weeks
Split-half reliability: 0.13; how repeatable the raw stat is
Stabilizes at: 349 TE · 595 WR; targets to trust the number

Passing

Completion %Dropback success rate EPA per dropback CPOE

Rushing

Rush success rate EPA per rush Yards per carry

Receiving

Catch rate Target success rate EPA per target

Season

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Position

All WR TE

shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI

Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.

EPA per target · 2022 · full board

EPA per target leaderboard for the 2022 NFL season, shrunk by empirical Bayes with 90% credible intervals, ranked by the shrunk estimate.
#	Player	Team	Pos	targets	Raw	Shrunk	90% interval
1	Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional	MIA	WR	118	+0.64	+0.29	+0.19 – +0.39
2	Stefon Diggs◦ provisional	BUF	WR	154	+0.49	+0.28	+0.18 – +0.38
3	Justin Jefferson◦ provisional	MIN	WR	185	+0.41	+0.27	+0.17 – +0.36
4	Tee Higgins◦ provisional	CIN	WR	110	+0.50	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.37
5	DeVonta Smith◦ provisional	PHI	WR	137	+0.44	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.36
6	George Pickens◦ provisional	PIT	WR	85	+0.53	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.36
7	Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional	NO	WR	34	+0.91	+0.26	+0.15 – +0.37
8	JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional	KC	WR	102	+0.48	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.36
9	Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional	DEN	WR	100	+0.47	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.36
10	CeeDee Lamb◦ provisional	DAL	WR	156	+0.40	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.36
11	Tyreek Hill◦ provisional	MIA	WR	170	+0.38	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.35
12	Dallas Goedert◦ provisional	PHI	TE	69	+0.65	+0.26	+0.13 – +0.38
13	Amon-Ra St. Brown◦ provisional	DET	WR	146	+0.39	+0.26	+0.16 – +0.35
14	Travis Kelce◦ provisional	KC	TE	153	+0.43	+0.25	+0.14 – +0.36
15	A.J. Brown◦ provisional	PHI	WR	145	+0.39	+0.25	+0.15 – +0.35
16	Amari Cooper◦ provisional	CLE	WR	133	+0.39	+0.25	+0.15 – +0.35
17	Terry McLaurin◦ provisional	WAS	WR	120	+0.41	+0.25	+0.15 – +0.35
18	Darius Slayton◦ provisional	NYG	WR	71	+0.50	+0.25	+0.15 – +0.36
19	Christian Watson◦ provisional	GB	WR	66	+0.47	+0.25	+0.14 – +0.35
20	Trenton Irwin◦ provisional	CIN	WR	23	+0.86	+0.25	+0.14 – +0.35
21	Brandon Aiyuk◦ provisional	SF	WR	114	+0.37	+0.25	+0.14 – +0.35
22	Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional	NE	WR	98	+0.38	+0.24	+0.14 – +0.35
23	Zay Jones◦ provisional	JAX	WR	122	+0.34	+0.24	+0.14 – +0.34
24	Michael Thomas◦ provisional	NO	WR	22	+0.76	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.35
25	Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional	SEA	WR	42	+0.50	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.35
26	Randall Cobb◦ provisional	GB	WR	50	+0.45	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.35
27	Mecole Hardman◦ provisional	KC	WR	34	+0.55	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.35
28	Tyler Lockett◦ provisional	SEA	WR	117	+0.33	+0.24	+0.14 – +0.34
29	Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional	CAR	WR	47	+0.46	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.35
30	Mike Williams◦ provisional	LAC	WR	93	+0.34	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
31	Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional	ATL	WR	61	+0.39	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
32	Mack Hollins◦ provisional	LV	WR	94	+0.33	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
33	Tyler Boyd◦ provisional	CIN	WR	85	+0.34	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
34	DJ Chark◦ provisional	DET	WR	52	+0.41	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
35	Kendall Hinton◦ provisional	DEN	WR	33	+0.50	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
36	KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional	ATL	WR	21	+0.65	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
37	Devin Duvernay◦ provisional	BAL	WR	49	+0.40	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
38	Richie James◦ provisional	NYG	WR	70	+0.35	+0.24	+0.13 – +0.34
39	Jahan Dotson◦ provisional	WAS	WR	63	+0.35	+0.23	+0.13 – +0.34
40	Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional	SF	WR	25	+0.50	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
41	Keenan Allen◦ provisional	LAC	WR	89	+0.30	+0.23	+0.13 – +0.34
42	George Kittle◦ provisional	SF	TE	86	+0.46	+0.23	+0.11 – +0.35
43	Kalif Raymond◦ provisional	DET	WR	64	+0.33	+0.23	+0.13 – +0.34
44	Byron Pringle◦ provisional	CHI	WR	16	+0.56	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
45	DeVante Parker◦ provisional	NE	WR	47	+0.33	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
46	Jalen Nailor◦ provisional	MIN	WR	13	+0.59	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
47	Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional	NYG	WR	31	+0.38	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
48	Tom Kennedy◦ provisional	DET	WR	15	+0.53	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
49	Sammy Watkins◦ provisional	BAL	WR	27	+0.38	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
50	Russell Gage◦ provisional	TB	WR	72	+0.28	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.33
51	Curtis Samuel◦ provisional	WAS	WR	93	+0.27	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.33
52	Ashton Dulin◦ provisional	IND	WR	22	+0.38	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
53	Will Dissly◦ provisional	SEA	TE	38	+0.69	+0.23	+0.10 – +0.35
54	Laviska Shenault Jr.◦ provisional	CAR	WR	32	+0.32	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.33
55	Khalil Shakir◦ provisional	BUF	WR	21	+0.37	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
56	Kadarius Toney◦ provisional	KC	WR	20	+0.37	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
57	Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional	MIA	WR	18	+0.38	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.34
58	Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional	NE	WR	48	+0.28	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.33
59	Damiere Byrd◦ provisional	ATL	WR	23	+0.33	+0.23	+0.12 – +0.33
60	Van Jefferson◦ provisional	LA	WR	44	+0.27	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
61	Christian Kirk◦ provisional	JAX	WR	134	+0.24	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
62	Alec Pierce◦ provisional	IND	WR	78	+0.25	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
63	Dyami Brown◦ provisional	WAS	WR	14	+0.35	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
64	Keelan Cole◦ provisional	LV	WR	21	+0.30	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
65	K.J. Osborn◦ provisional	MIN	WR	90	+0.24	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
66	Jauan Jennings◦ provisional	SF	WR	56	+0.25	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
67	Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional	NO	WR	27	+0.27	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
68	David Sills◦ provisional	NYG	WR	17	+0.29	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
69	Jamal Agnew◦ provisional	JAX	WR	31	+0.25	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
70	Garrett Wilson◦ provisional	NYJ	WR	147	+0.23	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
71	Darnell Mooney◦ provisional	CHI	WR	62	+0.23	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
72	Ja'Marr Chase◦ provisional	CIN	WR	134	+0.23	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
73	Justin Watson◦ provisional	KC	WR	34	+0.22	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
74	Courtland Sutton◦ provisional	DEN	WR	109	+0.22	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
75	Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional	NYG	WR	49	+0.22	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
76	Josh Palmer◦ provisional	LAC	WR	108	+0.22	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
77	DeAndre Carter◦ provisional	LAC	WR	65	+0.21	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.33
78	Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional	KC	WR	81	+0.21	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
79	Rondale Moore◦ provisional	ARI	WR	56	+0.20	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
80	Josh Reynolds◦ provisional	DET	WR	59	+0.20	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
81	Chris Olave◦ provisional	NO	WR	120	+0.21	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
82	River Cracraft◦ provisional	MIA	WR	14	+0.10	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
83	Skyy Moore◦ provisional	KC	WR	33	+0.17	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
84	Julio Jones◦ provisional	TB	WR	43	+0.17	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
85	Mike Evans◦ provisional	TB	WR	128	+0.20	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
86	Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional	TB	WR	145	+0.21	+0.22	+0.12 – +0.32
87	Greg Dortch◦ provisional	ARI	WR	64	+0.19	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
88	Amari Rodgers◦ provisional	HOU	WR	26	+0.14	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
89	DeSean Jackson◦ provisional	BAL	WR	17	+0.10	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
90	Corey Davis◦ provisional	NYJ	WR	64	+0.18	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
91	Allen Robinson◦ provisional	LA	WR	52	+0.17	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
92	Donovan Peoples-Jones◦ provisional	CLE	WR	96	+0.19	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
93	Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional	BUF	WR	65	+0.17	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
94	Jalen Reagor◦ provisional	MIN	WR	13	-0.01	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
95	Rashod Bateman◦ provisional	BAL	WR	28	+0.09	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
96	Tutu Atwell◦ provisional	LA	WR	35	+0.12	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
97	KJ Hamler◦ provisional	DEN	WR	14	-0.04	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.33
98	Chig Okonkwo◦ provisional	TEN	TE	47	+0.51	+0.22	+0.09 – +0.34
99	Zach Pascal◦ provisional	PHI	WR	19	+0.02	+0.22	+0.11 – +0.32
100	Jamison Crowder◦ provisional	BUF	WR	13	-0.08	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.32
101	Austin Hooper◦ provisional	TEN	TE	60	+0.44	+0.21	+0.09 – +0.34
102	Trent Sherfield◦ provisional	MIA	WR	51	+0.13	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.32
103	Cooper Kupp◦ provisional	LA	WR	98	+0.17	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.32
104	Davante Adams◦ provisional	LV	WR	181	+0.19	+0.21	+0.12 – +0.31
105	Dee Eskridge◦ provisional	SEA	WR	13	-0.15	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
106	Kyle Philips◦ provisional	TEN	WR	13	-0.15	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
107	Gabe Davis◦ provisional	BUF	WR	93	+0.16	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.32
108	Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional	CHI	WR	38	+0.08	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.32
109	Kenny Golladay◦ provisional	NYG	WR	17	-0.10	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
110	Marvin Jones◦ provisional	JAX	WR	81	+0.14	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.32
111	Evan Engram◦ provisional	JAX	TE	101	+0.33	+0.21	+0.09 – +0.33
112	Breshad Perriman◦ provisional	TB	WR	19	-0.13	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
113	Brandon Powell◦ provisional	LA	WR	32	+0.00	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
114	Michael Bandy◦ provisional	LAC	WR	21	-0.11	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
115	Brock Wright◦ provisional	DET	TE	24	+0.70	+0.21	+0.08 – +0.34
116	Treylon Burks◦ provisional	TEN	WR	54	+0.07	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
117	DJ Moore◦ provisional	CAR	WR	118	+0.15	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.31
118	Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional	LV	WR	51	+0.06	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
119	Scott Miller◦ provisional	TB	WR	40	+0.02	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
120	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional	TEN	WR	50	+0.05	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.31
121	Denzel Mims◦ provisional	NYJ	WR	25	-0.11	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
122	Sterling Shepard◦ provisional	NYG	WR	24	-0.13	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.32
123	Chris Moore◦ provisional	HOU	WR	74	+0.10	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.31
124	Michael Pittman◦ provisional	IND	WR	142	+0.15	+0.21	+0.11 – +0.31
125	Allen Lazard◦ provisional	GB	WR	101	+0.11	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.31
126	Robert Woods◦ provisional	TEN	WR	91	+0.10	+0.21	+0.10 – +0.31
127	Jordan Akins◦ provisional	HOU	TE	56	+0.38	+0.20	+0.08 – +0.33
128	Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional	SF	WR	94	+0.10	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.31
129	Steven Sims◦ provisional	PIT	WR	23	-0.25	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.31
130	Marcus Johnson◦ provisional	NYG	WR	23	-0.27	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.31
131	Adam Thielen◦ provisional	MIN	WR	109	+0.10	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.30
132	Drake London◦ provisional	ATL	WR	118	+0.11	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.30
133	Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional	BAL	WR	75	+0.05	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.31
134	Elijah Moore◦ provisional	NYJ	WR	65	+0.02	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.31
135	Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional	HOU	WR	40	-0.09	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.31
136	Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional	NE	WR	45	-0.06	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.31
137	Cam Sims◦ provisional	WAS	WR	18	-0.48	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.31
138	David Njoku◦ provisional	CLE	TE	80	+0.31	+0.20	+0.08 – +0.32
139	Marquez Callaway◦ provisional	NO	WR	32	-0.19	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.31
140	DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional	ARI	WR	98	+0.07	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.30
141	James Proche◦ provisional	BAL	WR	17	-0.57	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.31
142	Brandin Cooks◦ provisional	HOU	WR	93	+0.05	+0.20	+0.10 – +0.30
143	Dawson Knox◦ provisional	BUF	TE	65	+0.31	+0.20	+0.08 – +0.32
144	Nico Collins◦ provisional	HOU	WR	66	-0.02	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
145	Hayden Hurst◦ provisional	CIN	TE	68	+0.30	+0.20	+0.08 – +0.32
146	Michael Gallup◦ provisional	DAL	WR	74	-0.01	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
147	Braxton Berrios◦ provisional	NYJ	WR	32	-0.28	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
148	Noah Fant◦ provisional	SEA	TE	63	+0.30	+0.20	+0.07 – +0.32
149	Romeo Doubs◦ provisional	GB	WR	67	-0.04	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
150	Jarvis Landry◦ provisional	NO	WR	40	-0.19	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
151	Brandon Johnson◦ provisional	DEN	WR	14	-0.92	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
152	Robbie Chosen◦ provisional	ARI	WR	44	-0.16	+0.20	+0.09 – +0.30
153	Noah Gray◦ provisional	KC	TE	34	+0.38	+0.19	+0.07 – +0.32
154	C.J. Uzomah◦ provisional	NYJ	TE	27	+0.42	+0.19	+0.07 – +0.32
155	Donald Parham◦ provisional	LAC	TE	12	+0.68	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
156	Mitchell Wilcox◦ provisional	CIN	TE	18	+0.52	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
157	Ben Skowronek◦ provisional	LA	WR	61	-0.09	+0.19	+0.09 – +0.30
158	Joseph Fortson◦ provisional	KC	TE	13	+0.63	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
159	Shi Smith◦ provisional	CAR	WR	42	-0.22	+0.19	+0.09 – +0.30
160	David Bell◦ provisional	CLE	WR	35	-0.32	+0.19	+0.08 – +0.30
161	Noah Brown◦ provisional	DAL	WR	75	-0.05	+0.19	+0.09 – +0.30
162	Jack Stoll◦ provisional	PHI	TE	14	+0.57	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
163	Eric Tomlinson◦ provisional	DEN	TE	13	+0.56	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
164	Adam Trautman◦ provisional	NO	TE	22	+0.39	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
165	DK Metcalf◦ provisional	SEA	WR	142	+0.05	+0.19	+0.09 – +0.29
166	MyCole Pruitt◦ provisional	ATL	TE	21	+0.39	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
167	Daniel Bellinger◦ provisional	NYG	TE	36	+0.30	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.31
168	Mark Andrews◦ provisional	BAL	TE	114	+0.22	+0.19	+0.07 – +0.30
169	Colby Parkinson◦ provisional	SEA	TE	34	+0.30	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.31
170	Jake Ferguson◦ provisional	DAL	TE	22	+0.36	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
171	Chase Claypool◦ provisional	CHI	WR	79	-0.07	+0.19	+0.08 – +0.29
172	Juwan Johnson◦ provisional	NO	TE	65	+0.24	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.31
173	Dan Arnold◦ provisional	JAX	TE	13	+0.45	+0.19	+0.06 – +0.32
174	Quez Watkins◦ provisional	PHI	WR	51	-0.25	+0.18	+0.08 – +0.29
175	Nelson Agholor◦ provisional	NE	WR	53	-0.24	+0.18	+0.08 – +0.29
176	Hunter Henry◦ provisional	NE	TE	59	+0.23	+0.18	+0.06 – +0.31
177	Marquise Brown◦ provisional	ARI	WR	107	-0.03	+0.18	+0.08 – +0.29
178	Dante Pettis◦ provisional	CHI	WR	42	-0.39	+0.18	+0.07 – +0.29
179	Johnny Mundt◦ provisional	MIN	TE	21	+0.26	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
180	Parris Campbell◦ provisional	IND	WR	92	-0.09	+0.18	+0.08 – +0.28
181	Connor Heyward◦ provisional	PIT	TE	17	+0.24	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
182	Josiah Deguara◦ provisional	GB	TE	15	+0.23	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
183	Shane Zylstra◦ provisional	DET	TE	15	+0.23	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
184	Trey McBride◦ provisional	ARI	TE	39	+0.20	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.30
185	Josh Oliver◦ provisional	BAL	TE	25	+0.20	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
186	Taysom Hill◦ provisional	NO	TE	13	+0.20	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
187	A.J. Green◦ provisional	ARI	WR	49	-0.37	+0.18	+0.07 – +0.28
188	Anthony Firkser◦ provisional	ATL	TE	13	+0.19	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
189	Tanner Hudson◦ provisional	NYG	TE	15	+0.19	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
190	Teagan Quitoriano◦ provisional	HOU	TE	14	+0.16	+0.18	+0.05 – +0.31
191	Cole Kmet◦ provisional	CHI	TE	70	+0.16	+0.17	+0.05 – +0.29
192	Foster Moreau◦ provisional	LV	TE	54	+0.16	+0.17	+0.05 – +0.30
193	Ian Thomas◦ provisional	CAR	TE	30	+0.13	+0.17	+0.05 – +0.30
194	Jelani Woods◦ provisional	IND	TE	40	+0.13	+0.17	+0.05 – +0.30
195	Diontae Johnson◦ provisional	PIT	WR	149	-0.03	+0.17	+0.07 – +0.27
196	Darren Waller◦ provisional	LV	TE	44	+0.11	+0.17	+0.04 – +0.29
197	Zach Ertz◦ provisional	ARI	TE	71	+0.12	+0.17	+0.05 – +0.29
198	Durham Smythe◦ provisional	MIA	TE	20	-0.04	+0.16	+0.04 – +0.29
199	Harrison Bryant◦ provisional	CLE	TE	43	+0.07	+0.16	+0.04 – +0.29
200	Geoff Swaim◦ provisional	TEN	TE	16	-0.11	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
201	Zach Gentry◦ provisional	PIT	TE	23	-0.06	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
202	Albert Okwuegbunam◦ provisional	DEN	TE	18	-0.13	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
203	Cade Otton◦ provisional	TB	TE	65	+0.08	+0.16	+0.04 – +0.28
204	Jonnu Smith◦ provisional	NE	TE	38	+0.01	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
205	Pharaoh Brown◦ provisional	CLE	TE	20	-0.12	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
206	O.J. Howard◦ provisional	HOU	TE	23	-0.09	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
207	Peyton Hendershot◦ provisional	DAL	TE	16	-0.20	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
208	Kyle Pitts◦ provisional	ATL	TE	59	+0.06	+0.16	+0.04 – +0.28
209	Mo Alie-Cox◦ provisional	IND	TE	28	-0.06	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
210	Mike Gesicki◦ provisional	MIA	TE	53	+0.04	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.28
211	John Bates◦ provisional	WAS	TE	22	-0.13	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
212	Pat Freiermuth◦ provisional	PIT	TE	98	+0.09	+0.16	+0.04 – +0.27
213	Eric Saubert◦ provisional	DEN	TE	24	-0.12	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.29
214	Robert Tonyan◦ provisional	GB	TE	67	+0.06	+0.16	+0.04 – +0.28
215	Tommy Tremble◦ provisional	CAR	TE	32	-0.05	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.28
216	Kylen Granson◦ provisional	IND	TE	40	-0.02	+0.16	+0.03 – +0.28
217	Greg Dulcich◦ provisional	DEN	TE	55	+0.01	+0.15	+0.03 – +0.28
218	Lawrence Cager◦ provisional	NYG	TE	20	-0.26	+0.15	+0.02 – +0.28
219	Tre' McKitty◦ provisional	LAC	TE	18	-0.31	+0.15	+0.02 – +0.28
220	Irv Smith◦ provisional	MIN	TE	36	-0.12	+0.15	+0.02 – +0.27
221	Tyler Conklin◦ provisional	NYJ	TE	87	+0.03	+0.15	+0.03 – +0.27
222	Gerald Everett◦ provisional	LAC	TE	88	+0.03	+0.15	+0.03 – +0.26
223	Tyler Higbee◦ provisional	LA	TE	108	+0.05	+0.15	+0.03 – +0.26
224	Dalton Schultz◦ provisional	DAL	TE	89	-0.00	+0.14	+0.02 – +0.26
225	T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional	MIN	TE	131	+0.04	+0.14	+0.03 – +0.25
226	Isaiah Likely◦ provisional	BAL	TE	60	-0.09	+0.14	+0.01 – +0.26
227	Logan Thomas◦ provisional	WAS	TE	61	-0.14	+0.13	+0.01 – +0.25
228	Cameron Brate◦ provisional	TB	TE	38	-0.31	+0.13	+0.00 – +0.25
229	Brevin Jordan◦ provisional	HOU	TE	28	-0.49	+0.13	-0.00 – +0.25

How the shrinkage works

Two estimators

Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.

Does it help? & the fine print

The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.

Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).