NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Dropback success rate · 2022
Share of dropbacks (incl. sacks & scrambles) with positive EPA.
- Beats raw by
- 15.6%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 5.5% → 4.6%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.47
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 163
- dropbacks to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Dropback success rate · 2022 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | dropbacks | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 677 | 52.6% | 50.9% | 48.1% – 53.8% |
| 2 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 615 | 49.9% | 48.7% | 45.7% – 51.6% |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 414 | 50.5% | 48.7% | 45.2% – 52.1% |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 651 | 49.5% | 48.4% | 45.5% – 51.2% |
| 5 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 600 | 49.3% | 48.2% | 45.2% – 51.2% |
| 6 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | QB | 326 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 44.3% – 51.7% |
| 7 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 421 | 49.2% | 47.7% | 44.3% – 51.1% |
| 8 | Andy Dalton | NO | QB | 404 | 49.0% | 47.6% | 44.1% – 51.0% |
| 9 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 610 | 48.5% | 47.6% | 44.6% – 50.5% |
| 10 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 619 | 48.0% | 47.1% | 44.2% – 50.1% |
| 11 | Tom Brady | TB | QB | 758 | 47.5% | 46.9% | 44.2% – 49.6% |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | 690 | 47.5% | 46.9% | 44.1% – 49.7% |
| 13 | Nick Mullens◦ provisional | MIN | QB | 25 | 64.0% | 46.7% | 40.7% – 52.7% |
| 14 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 181 | 48.6% | 46.4% | 42.0% – 50.9% |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 332 | 46.7% | 45.8% | 42.1% – 49.5% |
| 16 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 514 | 46.1% | 45.6% | 42.5% – 48.8% |
| 17 | Bailey Zappe◦ provisional | NE | QB | 98 | 48.0% | 45.5% | 40.5% – 50.6% |
| 18 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | QB | 326 | 45.7% | 45.1% | 41.4% – 48.9% |
| 19 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 736 | 45.4% | 45.1% | 42.4% – 47.9% |
| 20 | Teddy Bridgewater◦ provisional | MIA | QB | 87 | 47.1% | 45.1% | 40.0% – 50.3% |
| 21 | Sam Darnold◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 147 | 46.3% | 45.1% | 40.5% – 49.7% |
| 22 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | 358 | 45.5% | 45.1% | 41.5% – 48.6% |
| 23 | Jameis Winston◦ provisional | NO | QB | 125 | 46.4% | 45.1% | 40.3% – 49.9% |
| 24 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 499 | 44.9% | 44.7% | 41.5% – 47.9% |
| 25 | Jarrett Stidham◦ provisional | LV | QB | 90 | 45.6% | 44.6% | 39.5% – 49.7% |
| 26 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 352 | 44.6% | 44.4% | 40.8% – 48.0% |
| 27 | Jacoby Brissett | CLE | QB | 392 | 44.4% | 44.3% | 40.8% – 47.8% |
| 28 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | 575 | 44.4% | 44.3% | 41.3% – 47.3% |
| 29 | Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | QB | 191 | 44.0% | 44.0% | 39.7% – 48.4% |
| 30 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | QB | 276 | 43.8% | 43.9% | 40.0% – 47.8% |
| 31 | John Wolford◦ provisional | LA | QB | 69 | 43.5% | 43.9% | 38.5% – 49.2% |
| 32 | Gardner Minshew◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 81 | 43.2% | 43.7% | 38.6% – 49.0% |
| 33 | Matt Ryan | IND | QB | 502 | 43.4% | 43.6% | 40.4% – 46.7% |
| 34 | Tyler Huntley◦ provisional | BAL | QB | 117 | 42.7% | 43.5% | 38.6% – 48.4% |
| 35 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | QB | 417 | 43.2% | 43.4% | 40.0% – 46.8% |
| 36 | Mike White | NYJ | QB | 184 | 42.4% | 43.1% | 38.8% – 47.5% |
| 37 | Trevor Siemian◦ provisional | CHI | QB | 28 | 35.7% | 42.8% | 37.0% – 48.7% |
| 38 | Desmond Ridder◦ provisional | ATL | QB | 124 | 41.1% | 42.8% | 38.0% – 47.6% |
| 39 | Joshua Dobbs◦ provisional | TEN | QB | 74 | 39.2% | 42.5% | 37.3% – 47.8% |
| 40 | Nathan Peterman◦ provisional | CHI | QB | 25 | 32.0% | 42.4% | 36.5% – 48.4% |
| 41 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | 188 | 41.0% | 42.4% | 38.1% – 46.7% |
| 42 | David Blough◦ provisional | ARI | QB | 63 | 38.1% | 42.4% | 37.0% – 47.8% |
| 43 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 418 | 41.6% | 42.3% | 38.9% – 45.7% |
| 44 | Trey Lance◦ provisional | SF | QB | 33 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 36.5% – 48.0% |
| 45 | Davis Webb◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 41 | 34.2% | 42.0% | 36.4% – 47.7% |
| 46 | Derek Carr | LV | QB | 532 | 41.3% | 42.0% | 38.9% – 45.1% |
| 47 | Brett Rypien◦ provisional | DEN | QB | 96 | 38.5% | 42.0% | 37.0% – 47.0% |
| 48 | Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 168 | 39.3% | 41.6% | 37.2% – 46.1% |
| 49 | Colt McCoy◦ provisional | ARI | QB | 145 | 38.6% | 41.5% | 36.9% – 46.1% |
| 50 | Joe Flacco | NYJ | QB | 201 | 39.3% | 41.4% | 37.2% – 45.7% |
| 51 | Nick Foles◦ provisional | IND | QB | 50 | 32.0% | 41.2% | 35.7% – 46.8% |
| 52 | Bryce Perkins◦ provisional | LA | QB | 39 | 28.2% | 40.9% | 35.3% – 46.7% |
| 53 | Carson Wentz | WAS | QB | 309 | 38.8% | 40.6% | 36.9% – 44.4% |
| 54 | PJ Walker◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 113 | 35.4% | 40.5% | 35.7% – 45.4% |
| 55 | Mac Jones | NE | QB | 478 | 39.1% | 40.4% | 37.2% – 43.6% |
| 56 | Kyle Allen◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 85 | 32.9% | 40.2% | 35.1% – 45.4% |
| 57 | Skylar Thompson◦ provisional | MIA | QB | 111 | 34.2% | 40.1% | 35.2% – 45.0% |
| 58 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | QB | 265 | 37.4% | 39.9% | 36.0% – 43.8% |
| 59 | Anthony Brown◦ provisional | BAL | QB | 52 | 26.9% | 39.9% | 34.4% – 45.4% |
| 60 | Sam Ehlinger◦ provisional | IND | QB | 115 | 33.9% | 39.8% | 35.0% – 44.7% |
| 61 | Davis Mills | HOU | QB | 511 | 37.4% | 39.0% | 35.9% – 42.1% |
| 62 | Trace McSorley◦ provisional | ARI | QB | 86 | 29.1% | 38.8% | 33.8% – 44.0% |
| 63 | Justin Fields | CHI | QB | 377 | 36.6% | 38.8% | 35.4% – 42.3% |
| 64 | Malik Willis◦ provisional | TEN | QB | 71 | 26.8% | 38.8% | 33.6% – 44.1% |
| 65 | Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 538 | 36.6% | 38.3% | 35.3% – 41.4% |
| 66 | Baker Mayfield | LA | QB | 371 | 35.6% | 38.1% | 34.7% – 41.6% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).