NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Catch rate · 2022
Receptions per target, shrunk within position (WR vs TE separately). Depth-of-target confound; catchable-target rate not available here.
- Beats raw by
- 18.3%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 11.1% → 9.1%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.35
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 145 TE · 96 WR
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Catch rate · 2022 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Dissly◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 38 | 89.5% | 72.6% | 67.1% – 77.9% |
| 2 | Dallas Goedert◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 69 | 79.7% | 71.9% | 66.8% – 76.8% |
| 3 | Robert Tonyan◦ provisional | GB | TE | 67 | 79.1% | 71.7% | 66.5% – 76.6% |
| 4 | Noah Fant◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 63 | 79.4% | 71.6% | 66.3% – 76.6% |
| 5 | Daniel Bellinger◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 36 | 83.3% | 71.2% | 65.6% – 76.6% |
| 6 | Mitchell Wilcox◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 18 | 94.4% | 71.1% | 65.2% – 76.8% |
| 7 | Richie James◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 70 | 81.4% | 71.1% | 65.1% – 76.7% |
| 8 | Johnny Mundt◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 21 | 90.5% | 71.0% | 65.1% – 76.7% |
| 9 | Noah Gray◦ provisional | KC | TE | 34 | 82.3% | 70.9% | 65.2% – 76.3% |
| 10 | Hayden Hurst◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 68 | 76.5% | 70.9% | 65.6% – 75.8% |
| 11 | Jake Ferguson◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 22 | 86.4% | 70.6% | 64.7% – 76.3% |
| 12 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 64 | 81.3% | 70.6% | 64.5% – 76.4% |
| 13 | Kylen Granson◦ provisional | IND | TE | 40 | 77.5% | 70.2% | 64.6% – 75.6% |
| 14 | Zach Gentry◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 23 | 82.6% | 70.2% | 64.3% – 75.8% |
| 15 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 102 | 76.5% | 70.2% | 64.7% – 75.4% |
| 16 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 153 | 71.9% | 70.1% | 65.7% – 74.4% |
| 17 | Cooper Kupp | LA | WR | 98 | 76.5% | 70.1% | 64.6% – 75.4% |
| 18 | Adam Trautman◦ provisional | NO | TE | 22 | 81.8% | 70.0% | 64.1% – 75.7% |
| 19 | Dawson Knox◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 65 | 73.9% | 70.0% | 64.7% – 75.0% |
| 20 | Josiah Deguara◦ provisional | GB | TE | 15 | 86.7% | 70.0% | 63.9% – 75.8% |
| 21 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 101 | 72.3% | 69.9% | 65.0% – 74.6% |
| 22 | David Njoku◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 80 | 72.5% | 69.8% | 64.6% – 74.7% |
| 23 | C.J. Uzomah◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 27 | 77.8% | 69.7% | 63.9% – 75.3% |
| 24 | Trey McBride◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 39 | 74.4% | 69.5% | 63.8% – 75.0% |
| 25 | Donald Parham◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 12 | 83.3% | 69.4% | 63.2% – 75.3% |
| 26 | Cole Kmet◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 70 | 71.4% | 69.3% | 64.0% – 74.3% |
| 27 | MyCole Pruitt◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 21 | 76.2% | 69.2% | 63.2% – 75.0% |
| 28 | Colby Parkinson◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 34 | 73.5% | 69.2% | 63.5% – 74.8% |
| 29 | Brock Wright◦ provisional | DET | TE | 24 | 75.0% | 69.2% | 63.2% – 74.9% |
| 30 | Jack Stoll◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 14 | 78.6% | 69.1% | 63.0% – 75.0% |
| 31 | Harrison Bryant◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 43 | 72.1% | 69.1% | 63.5% – 74.5% |
| 32 | Durham Smythe◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 20 | 75.0% | 69.0% | 63.0% – 74.8% |
| 33 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 146 | 72.6% | 69.0% | 64.0% – 73.8% |
| 34 | Geoff Swaim◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 16 | 75.0% | 68.9% | 62.8% – 74.8% |
| 35 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | NE | TE | 38 | 71.0% | 68.8% | 63.1% – 74.3% |
| 36 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 86 | 69.8% | 68.8% | 63.7% – 73.7% |
| 37 | Laviska Shenault Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 32 | 84.4% | 68.7% | 61.8% – 75.3% |
| 38 | Shane Zylstra◦ provisional | DET | TE | 15 | 73.3% | 68.7% | 62.6% – 74.6% |
| 39 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 89 | 74.2% | 68.6% | 62.9% – 74.1% |
| 40 | Hunter Henry◦ provisional | NE | TE | 59 | 69.5% | 68.6% | 63.2% – 73.8% |
| 41 | Ian Thomas◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 30 | 70.0% | 68.5% | 62.7% – 74.2% |
| 42 | Connor Heyward◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 17 | 70.6% | 68.5% | 62.4% – 74.3% |
| 43 | Irv Smith◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 36 | 69.4% | 68.5% | 62.7% – 74.0% |
| 44 | Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | WR | 145 | 71.7% | 68.4% | 63.4% – 73.3% |
| 45 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | NO | WR | 34 | 82.3% | 68.4% | 61.6% – 75.0% |
| 46 | Eric Tomlinson◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 13 | 69.2% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 47 | Taysom Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 13 | 69.2% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 48 | Anthony Firkser◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 13 | 69.2% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 49 | Dan Arnold◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 13 | 69.2% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 50 | Joseph Fortson◦ provisional | KC | TE | 13 | 69.2% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 51 | Peyton Hendershot◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 16 | 68.8% | 68.3% | 62.1% – 74.2% |
| 52 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 60 | 68.3% | 68.3% | 62.8% – 73.5% |
| 53 | Chig Okonkwo◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 47 | 68.1% | 68.2% | 62.6% – 73.6% |
| 54 | Mo Alie-Cox◦ provisional | IND | TE | 28 | 67.9% | 68.2% | 62.3% – 73.9% |
| 55 | Tanner Hudson◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 15 | 66.7% | 68.1% | 61.9% – 74.0% |
| 56 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 117 | 71.8% | 68.0% | 62.7% – 73.2% |
| 57 | Lawrence Cager◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 20 | 65.0% | 67.8% | 61.8% – 73.7% |
| 58 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 170 | 70.0% | 67.7% | 62.9% – 72.3% |
| 59 | Tyler Conklin◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 87 | 66.7% | 67.6% | 62.5% – 72.6% |
| 60 | Jordan Akins◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 56 | 66.1% | 67.6% | 62.1% – 72.9% |
| 61 | John Bates◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 22 | 63.6% | 67.6% | 61.6% – 73.4% |
| 62 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 154 | 70.1% | 67.6% | 62.6% – 72.4% |
| 63 | Zach Ertz◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 71 | 66.2% | 67.6% | 62.3% – 72.7% |
| 64 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 108 | 66.7% | 67.6% | 62.7% – 72.3% |
| 65 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 49 | 75.5% | 67.5% | 61.0% – 73.8% |
| 66 | Devin Duvernay◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 49 | 75.5% | 67.5% | 61.0% – 73.8% |
| 67 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 64 | 73.4% | 67.5% | 61.3% – 73.4% |
| 68 | Eric Saubert◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 24 | 62.5% | 67.4% | 61.4% – 73.2% |
| 69 | Gerald Everett◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 88 | 65.9% | 67.3% | 62.2% – 72.3% |
| 70 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 185 | 69.2% | 67.2% | 62.6% – 71.8% |
| 71 | Pharaoh Brown◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 20 | 60.0% | 67.2% | 61.1% – 73.1% |
| 72 | Michael Pittman | IND | WR | 142 | 69.7% | 67.2% | 62.1% – 72.1% |
| 73 | Darren Waller◦ provisional | LV | TE | 44 | 63.6% | 67.2% | 61.5% – 72.7% |
| 74 | Juwan Johnson◦ provisional | NO | TE | 65 | 64.6% | 67.1% | 61.7% – 72.3% |
| 75 | Cade Otton◦ provisional | TB | TE | 65 | 64.6% | 67.1% | 61.7% – 72.3% |
| 76 | Rondale Moore◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 56 | 73.2% | 67.1% | 60.7% – 73.2% |
| 77 | T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 131 | 65.6% | 67.0% | 62.3% – 71.6% |
| 78 | Jelani Woods◦ provisional | IND | TE | 40 | 62.5% | 67.0% | 61.2% – 72.6% |
| 79 | Logan Thomas◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 61 | 63.9% | 67.0% | 61.5% – 72.2% |
| 80 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 137 | 69.3% | 66.9% | 61.8% – 71.9% |
| 81 | Albert Okwuegbunam◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 18 | 55.6% | 66.8% | 60.7% – 72.8% |
| 82 | Tre' McKitty◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 18 | 55.6% | 66.8% | 60.7% – 72.8% |
| 83 | Dalton Schultz◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 89 | 64.0% | 66.6% | 61.5% – 71.6% |
| 84 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 156 | 68.6% | 66.6% | 61.7% – 71.5% |
| 85 | Pat Freiermuth◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 98 | 64.3% | 66.6% | 61.6% – 71.5% |
| 86 | Russell Gage◦ provisional | TB | WR | 72 | 70.8% | 66.6% | 60.5% – 72.5% |
| 87 | Tommy Tremble◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 32 | 59.4% | 66.6% | 60.7% – 72.3% |
| 88 | Teagan Quitoriano◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 14 | 50.0% | 66.6% | 60.4% – 72.6% |
| 89 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | NE | WR | 48 | 72.9% | 66.6% | 60.0% – 72.9% |
| 90 | Josh Oliver◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 25 | 56.0% | 66.4% | 60.4% – 72.3% |
| 91 | DeAndre Carter◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 65 | 70.8% | 66.4% | 60.2% – 72.4% |
| 92 | Mark Andrews◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 114 | 64.0% | 66.4% | 61.5% – 71.1% |
| 93 | Brandon Powell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 32 | 75.0% | 66.4% | 59.4% – 73.1% |
| 94 | Kadarius Toney◦ provisional | KC | WR | 20 | 80.0% | 66.3% | 59.0% – 73.4% |
| 95 | Foster Moreau◦ provisional | LV | TE | 54 | 61.1% | 66.3% | 60.7% – 71.7% |
| 96 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | 114 | 68.4% | 66.2% | 60.7% – 71.4% |
| 97 | Mike Gesicki◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 53 | 60.4% | 66.1% | 60.5% – 71.5% |
| 98 | Curtis Samuel◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 93 | 68.8% | 66.1% | 60.4% – 71.7% |
| 99 | Mecole Hardman◦ provisional | KC | WR | 34 | 73.5% | 66.1% | 59.2% – 72.8% |
| 100 | Jamal Agnew◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 31 | 74.2% | 66.1% | 59.1% – 72.8% |
| 101 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 31 | 74.2% | 66.1% | 59.1% – 72.8% |
| 102 | Zach Pascal◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 19 | 79.0% | 66.0% | 58.6% – 73.1% |
| 103 | Greg Dulcich◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 55 | 60.0% | 66.0% | 60.4% – 71.4% |
| 104 | Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | 98 | 68.4% | 66.0% | 60.3% – 71.4% |
| 105 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | LV | WR | 51 | 70.6% | 65.9% | 59.4% – 72.2% |
| 106 | Parris Campbell◦ provisional | IND | WR | 92 | 68.5% | 65.9% | 60.2% – 71.5% |
| 107 | Kendall Hinton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 33 | 72.7% | 65.8% | 58.8% – 72.5% |
| 108 | Isaiah Likely◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 60 | 60.0% | 65.8% | 60.3% – 71.2% |
| 109 | Tyler Boyd◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 85 | 68.2% | 65.7% | 59.8% – 71.4% |
| 110 | Mike Williams◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 93 | 67.7% | 65.6% | 59.8% – 71.2% |
| 111 | Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 122 | 67.2% | 65.6% | 60.2% – 70.8% |
| 112 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | 110 | 67.3% | 65.5% | 60.0% – 70.9% |
| 113 | Brevin Jordan◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 28 | 50.0% | 65.3% | 59.3% – 71.1% |
| 114 | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 100 | 67.0% | 65.3% | 59.6% – 70.8% |
| 115 | Michael Thomas◦ provisional | NO | WR | 22 | 72.7% | 65.2% | 57.9% – 72.3% |
| 116 | Josh Palmer | LAC | WR | 108 | 66.7% | 65.2% | 59.6% – 70.6% |
| 117 | Randall Cobb◦ provisional | GB | WR | 50 | 68.0% | 65.0% | 58.4% – 71.4% |
| 118 | K.J. Osborn◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 90 | 66.7% | 65.0% | 59.2% – 70.7% |
| 119 | Cameron Brate◦ provisional | TB | TE | 38 | 52.6% | 65.0% | 59.1% – 70.7% |
| 120 | Tre'Quan Smith◦ provisional | NO | WR | 27 | 70.4% | 65.0% | 57.8% – 71.9% |
| 121 | O.J. Howard◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 23 | 43.5% | 64.8% | 58.7% – 70.8% |
| 122 | David Bell◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 35 | 68.6% | 64.8% | 57.9% – 71.5% |
| 123 | DeAndre Hopkins | ARI | WR | 98 | 65.3% | 64.4% | 58.7% – 70.0% |
| 124 | Ashton Dulin◦ provisional | IND | WR | 22 | 68.2% | 64.3% | 57.0% – 71.4% |
| 125 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 134 | 64.9% | 64.3% | 59.1% – 69.4% |
| 126 | DeVante Parker◦ provisional | NE | WR | 47 | 66.0% | 64.3% | 57.6% – 70.8% |
| 127 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 61 | 65.6% | 64.3% | 57.9% – 70.5% |
| 128 | Skyy Moore◦ provisional | KC | WR | 33 | 66.7% | 64.3% | 57.2% – 71.1% |
| 129 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 13 | 69.2% | 64.1% | 56.5% – 71.5% |
| 130 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 74 | 64.9% | 64.1% | 57.9% – 70.0% |
| 131 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 71 | 64.8% | 64.0% | 57.8% – 70.0% |
| 132 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 18 | 66.7% | 64.0% | 56.5% – 71.2% |
| 133 | Isaiah McKenzie◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 65 | 64.6% | 63.9% | 57.6% – 70.0% |
| 134 | Quez Watkins◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 51 | 64.7% | 63.9% | 57.3% – 70.3% |
| 135 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 62 | 64.5% | 63.9% | 57.5% – 70.0% |
| 136 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 109 | 64.2% | 63.9% | 58.3% – 69.3% |
| 137 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 120 | 64.2% | 63.8% | 58.4% – 69.2% |
| 138 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | WR | 59 | 64.4% | 63.8% | 57.4% – 70.1% |
| 139 | Trenton Irwin◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 23 | 65.2% | 63.8% | 56.4% – 70.9% |
| 140 | Marquise Goodwin◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 42 | 64.3% | 63.7% | 56.9% – 70.3% |
| 141 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 75 | 64.0% | 63.7% | 57.6% – 69.7% |
| 142 | David Sills◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 17 | 64.7% | 63.6% | 56.1% – 70.9% |
| 143 | Ben Skowronek◦ provisional | LA | WR | 61 | 63.9% | 63.6% | 57.2% – 69.8% |
| 144 | River Cracraft◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 14 | 64.3% | 63.6% | 55.9% – 71.0% |
| 145 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 118 | 63.6% | 63.5% | 58.0% – 68.8% |
| 146 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | WR | 96 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 57.7% – 69.1% |
| 147 | Allen Robinson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 52 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 56.9% – 69.9% |
| 148 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 142 | 63.4% | 63.4% | 58.2% – 68.5% |
| 149 | Byron Pringle◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 16 | 62.5% | 63.3% | 55.7% – 70.7% |
| 150 | Jalen Reagor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 63.2% | 55.5% – 70.7% |
| 151 | Kyle Philips◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 13 | 61.5% | 63.2% | 55.5% – 70.7% |
| 152 | Jarvis Landry◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | 62.5% | 63.2% | 56.3% – 69.9% |
| 153 | KhaDarel Hodge◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 21 | 61.9% | 63.2% | 55.7% – 70.4% |
| 154 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 67 | 62.7% | 63.1% | 56.8% – 69.3% |
| 155 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 56 | 62.5% | 63.1% | 56.6% – 69.4% |
| 156 | Amari Rodgers◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 26 | 61.5% | 63.0% | 55.8% – 70.1% |
| 157 | Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 134 | 62.7% | 63.0% | 57.7% – 68.2% |
| 158 | Marquise Brown | ARI | WR | 107 | 62.6% | 63.0% | 57.4% – 68.5% |
| 159 | Steven Sims◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 23 | 60.9% | 63.0% | 55.6% – 70.1% |
| 160 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 66 | 62.1% | 62.9% | 56.6% – 69.1% |
| 161 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 54 | 61.1% | 62.6% | 56.0% – 69.0% |
| 162 | Sammy Watkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 27 | 59.3% | 62.5% | 55.3% – 69.6% |
| 163 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 93 | 61.3% | 62.4% | 56.5% – 68.1% |
| 164 | George Pickens◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 85 | 61.2% | 62.4% | 56.4% – 68.2% |
| 165 | Dee Eskridge◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 13 | 53.8% | 62.3% | 54.6% – 69.8% |
| 166 | Kyle Pitts◦ provisional | ATL | TE | 59 | 47.5% | 62.2% | 56.6% – 67.7% |
| 167 | Terrace Marshall Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 47 | 59.6% | 62.2% | 55.4% – 68.7% |
| 168 | Damiere Byrd◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 23 | 56.5% | 62.1% | 54.7% – 69.3% |
| 169 | Drake London | ATL | WR | 118 | 61.0% | 62.1% | 56.6% – 67.5% |
| 170 | Tom Kennedy◦ provisional | DET | WR | 15 | 53.3% | 62.1% | 54.4% – 69.5% |
| 171 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | LV | WR | 94 | 60.6% | 62.1% | 56.2% – 67.8% |
| 172 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | SF | WR | 25 | 56.0% | 61.9% | 54.5% – 69.0% |
| 173 | DeSean Jackson◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 17 | 52.9% | 61.9% | 54.3% – 69.3% |
| 174 | Trent Sherfield◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 51 | 58.8% | 61.9% | 55.2% – 68.3% |
| 175 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 145 | 60.7% | 61.8% | 56.6% – 66.9% |
| 176 | KJ Hamler◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 14 | 50.0% | 61.7% | 54.0% – 69.2% |
| 177 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | TB | WR | 40 | 57.5% | 61.7% | 54.8% – 68.5% |
| 178 | Nelson Agholor◦ provisional | NE | WR | 53 | 58.5% | 61.7% | 55.1% – 68.1% |
| 179 | Braxton Berrios◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 32 | 56.3% | 61.7% | 54.5% – 68.6% |
| 180 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 24 | 54.2% | 61.6% | 54.2% – 68.8% |
| 181 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | 128 | 60.2% | 61.6% | 56.2% – 66.8% |
| 182 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | SF | WR | 94 | 59.6% | 61.5% | 55.7% – 67.3% |
| 183 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | 120 | 60.0% | 61.5% | 56.0% – 66.9% |
| 184 | DJ Chark◦ provisional | DET | WR | 52 | 57.7% | 61.4% | 54.8% – 67.9% |
| 185 | Jamison Crowder◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 13 | 46.2% | 61.4% | 53.6% – 68.9% |
| 186 | Allen Lazard | GB | WR | 101 | 59.4% | 61.4% | 55.6% – 67.0% |
| 187 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 28 | 53.6% | 61.2% | 53.9% – 68.3% |
| 188 | Equanimeous St. Brown◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 38 | 55.3% | 61.1% | 54.1% – 68.0% |
| 189 | Julio Jones◦ provisional | TB | WR | 43 | 55.8% | 61.1% | 54.2% – 67.8% |
| 190 | Chase Claypool◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 79 | 58.2% | 61.1% | 55.0% – 67.1% |
| 191 | James Proche◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 17 | 47.1% | 61.0% | 53.3% – 68.4% |
| 192 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 109 | 58.7% | 60.9% | 55.3% – 66.5% |
| 193 | Robert Woods◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 91 | 58.2% | 60.9% | 55.0% – 66.7% |
| 194 | Brandon Johnson◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 14 | 42.9% | 60.8% | 53.1% – 68.3% |
| 195 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 65 | 56.9% | 60.8% | 54.4% – 67.1% |
| 196 | Breshad Perriman◦ provisional | TB | WR | 19 | 47.4% | 60.8% | 53.2% – 68.2% |
| 197 | Noah Brown◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 75 | 57.3% | 60.8% | 54.6% – 66.8% |
| 198 | Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | 133 | 58.7% | 60.7% | 55.3% – 65.9% |
| 199 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | LA | WR | 44 | 54.5% | 60.7% | 53.8% – 67.3% |
| 200 | Keelan Cole◦ provisional | LV | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.9% |
| 201 | Michael Bandy◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.9% |
| 202 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 21 | 47.6% | 60.6% | 53.1% – 67.9% |
| 203 | Cam Sims◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 18 | 44.4% | 60.5% | 52.8% – 67.9% |
| 204 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 66 | 56.1% | 60.4% | 54.0% – 66.7% |
| 205 | Marvin Jones◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 81 | 56.8% | 60.4% | 54.3% – 66.4% |
| 206 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 63 | 55.6% | 60.3% | 53.9% – 66.6% |
| 207 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 35 | 51.4% | 60.2% | 53.1% – 67.2% |
| 208 | Marquez Callaway◦ provisional | NO | WR | 32 | 50.0% | 60.1% | 52.9% – 67.1% |
| 209 | Shi Smith◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 42 | 52.4% | 60.1% | 53.1% – 66.8% |
| 210 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 149 | 57.7% | 60.0% | 54.8% – 65.1% |
| 211 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 14 | 35.7% | 59.9% | 52.1% – 67.5% |
| 212 | Phillip Dorsett◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 40 | 50.0% | 59.5% | 52.5% – 66.3% |
| 213 | Denzel Mims◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 25 | 44.0% | 59.4% | 52.0% – 66.7% |
| 214 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 147 | 56.5% | 59.2% | 54.0% – 64.4% |
| 215 | Kenny Golladay◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 17 | 35.3% | 59.2% | 51.5% – 66.7% |
| 216 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 50 | 50.0% | 58.8% | 52.1% – 65.5% |
| 217 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | NE | WR | 45 | 48.9% | 58.8% | 51.9% – 65.5% |
| 218 | Michael Gallup◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 74 | 52.7% | 58.8% | 52.5% – 64.9% |
| 219 | Marcus Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 23 | 39.1% | 58.7% | 51.2% – 66.1% |
| 220 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 78 | 52.6% | 58.6% | 52.4% – 64.6% |
| 221 | A.J. Green◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 49 | 49.0% | 58.6% | 51.8% – 65.2% |
| 222 | Justin Watson◦ provisional | KC | WR | 34 | 44.1% | 58.4% | 51.2% – 65.4% |
| 223 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | KC | WR | 81 | 51.8% | 58.1% | 52.0% – 64.2% |
| 224 | Davante Adams | LV | WR | 181 | 55.3% | 58.1% | 53.2% – 62.9% |
| 225 | Corey Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 64 | 50.0% | 58.1% | 51.6% – 64.4% |
| 226 | DJ Moore | CAR | WR | 118 | 53.4% | 57.9% | 52.3% – 63.4% |
| 227 | Dante Pettis◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 42 | 45.2% | 57.9% | 50.9% – 64.7% |
| 228 | Robbie Chosen◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 44 | 45.5% | 57.8% | 50.9% – 64.6% |
| 229 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 93 | 51.6% | 57.6% | 51.7% – 63.5% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).