NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2021
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 169
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2021 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ Dillon | GB | RB | 187 | 48.1% | 44.2% | 39.9% – 48.5% |
| 2 | Leonard Fournette | TB | RB | 180 | 47.8% | 44.0% | 39.6% – 48.3% |
| 3 | Jordan Howard◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 86 | 51.2% | 43.7% | 38.6% – 48.8% |
| 4 | Latavius Murray◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 119 | 48.7% | 43.5% | 38.8% – 48.4% |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 332 | 45.2% | 43.4% | 39.8% – 47.0% |
| 6 | Damien Harris | NE | RB | 202 | 46.0% | 43.2% | 39.0% – 47.5% |
| 7 | Antonio Gibson | WAS | RB | 259 | 45.2% | 43.1% | 39.2% – 47.0% |
| 8 | Darrel Williams◦ provisional | KC | RB | 144 | 46.5% | 42.9% | 38.4% – 47.5% |
| 9 | Rhamondre Stevenson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 133 | 46.6% | 42.8% | 38.2% – 47.5% |
| 10 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 138 | 46.4% | 42.8% | 38.2% – 47.5% |
| 11 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 69 | 49.3% | 42.6% | 37.4% – 47.9% |
| 12 | Darrell Henderson◦ provisional | LA | RB | 149 | 45.6% | 42.6% | 38.0% – 47.1% |
| 13 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | 208 | 44.7% | 42.5% | 38.4% – 46.8% |
| 14 | Tevin Coleman◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 84 | 47.6% | 42.4% | 37.4% – 47.6% |
| 15 | Ronald Jones◦ provisional | TB | RB | 101 | 46.5% | 42.4% | 37.5% – 47.3% |
| 16 | Melvin Gordon | DEN | RB | 203 | 44.3% | 42.3% | 38.1% – 46.5% |
| 17 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 130 | 45.4% | 42.3% | 37.6% – 47.0% |
| 18 | DeeJay Dallas◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 33 | 54.5% | 42.3% | 36.6% – 48.0% |
| 19 | D'Ernest Johnson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 100 | 46.0% | 42.1% | 37.2% – 47.1% |
| 20 | Jonathan Williams◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 17 | 64.7% | 42.1% | 36.3% – 48.1% |
| 21 | Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 171 | 43.9% | 41.9% | 37.5% – 46.3% |
| 22 | James Robinson◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 164 | 43.9% | 41.9% | 37.5% – 46.3% |
| 23 | Derrick Gore◦ provisional | KC | RB | 51 | 47.1% | 41.5% | 36.1% – 47.0% |
| 24 | Jermar Jefferson◦ provisional | DET | RB | 15 | 60.0% | 41.5% | 35.6% – 47.5% |
| 25 | Chris Carson◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 54 | 46.3% | 41.4% | 36.1% – 46.9% |
| 26 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 240 | 42.5% | 41.4% | 37.4% – 45.4% |
| 27 | James Conner | ARI | RB | 202 | 42.6% | 41.3% | 37.2% – 45.6% |
| 28 | Patrick Taylor◦ provisional | GB | RB | 23 | 52.2% | 41.3% | 35.6% – 47.2% |
| 29 | Justin Jackson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 69 | 44.9% | 41.3% | 36.1% – 46.6% |
| 30 | Devonta Freeman◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 133 | 42.9% | 41.2% | 36.6% – 45.9% |
| 31 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 99 | 43.4% | 41.2% | 36.3% – 46.2% |
| 32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire◦ provisional | KC | RB | 119 | 42.9% | 41.1% | 36.4% – 45.9% |
| 33 | Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | 217 | 41.9% | 41.0% | 37.0% – 45.2% |
| 34 | Ryquell Armstead◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 15 | 53.3% | 41.0% | 35.1% – 47.0% |
| 35 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 79 | 43.0% | 40.9% | 35.8% – 46.1% |
| 36 | Damien Williams◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 40 | 45.0% | 40.9% | 35.3% – 46.5% |
| 37 | Brandon Bolden◦ provisional | NE | RB | 45 | 44.4% | 40.8% | 35.4% – 46.4% |
| 38 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | DET | RB | 153 | 41.8% | 40.8% | 36.3% – 45.3% |
| 39 | Travis Homer◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 21 | 47.6% | 40.7% | 34.9% – 46.6% |
| 40 | Matt Breida◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 26 | 46.2% | 40.7% | 35.0% – 46.5% |
| 41 | Trey Sermon◦ provisional | SF | RB | 41 | 43.9% | 40.7% | 35.2% – 46.3% |
| 42 | Elijah Mitchell | SF | RB | 207 | 41.1% | 40.5% | 36.4% – 44.7% |
| 43 | Chase Edmonds◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 116 | 41.4% | 40.5% | 35.8% – 45.3% |
| 44 | Trayveon Williams◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 15 | 46.7% | 40.4% | 34.6% – 46.4% |
| 45 | Boston Scott◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 87 | 41.4% | 40.4% | 35.4% – 45.5% |
| 46 | Peyton Barber◦ provisional | LV | RB | 55 | 41.8% | 40.4% | 35.0% – 45.8% |
| 47 | Godwin Igwebuike◦ provisional | DET | RB | 18 | 44.4% | 40.3% | 34.5% – 46.3% |
| 48 | JaMycal Hasty◦ provisional | SF | RB | 16 | 43.8% | 40.2% | 34.4% – 46.2% |
| 49 | Dontrell Hilliard◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 56 | 41.1% | 40.2% | 34.9% – 45.6% |
| 50 | J.D. McKissic◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 49 | 40.8% | 40.1% | 34.7% – 45.6% |
| 51 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | RB | 251 | 40.2% | 40.1% | 36.2% – 44.0% |
| 52 | Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | 294 | 40.1% | 40.0% | 36.3% – 43.8% |
| 53 | Elijhaa Penny◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 25 | 40.0% | 39.9% | 34.2% – 45.7% |
| 54 | Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | 228 | 39.9% | 39.9% | 35.9% – 44.0% |
| 55 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 103 | 39.8% | 39.9% | 35.0% – 44.8% |
| 56 | Zack Moss◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 96 | 39.6% | 39.8% | 34.9% – 44.8% |
| 57 | Duke Johnson◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 71 | 39.4% | 39.8% | 34.6% – 45.0% |
| 58 | Qadree Ollison◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 21 | 38.1% | 39.7% | 33.9% – 45.6% |
| 59 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 122 | 39.3% | 39.7% | 35.0% – 44.4% |
| 60 | Sony Michel | LA | RB | 208 | 39.4% | 39.6% | 35.5% – 43.8% |
| 61 | Devontae Booker◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 145 | 39.3% | 39.6% | 35.1% – 44.2% |
| 62 | Carlos Hyde◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 72 | 38.9% | 39.6% | 34.5% – 44.8% |
| 63 | Craig Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | RB | 55 | 38.2% | 39.5% | 34.2% – 44.9% |
| 64 | Ty'Son Williams◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 35 | 37.1% | 39.4% | 33.9% – 45.1% |
| 65 | Jaret Patterson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 68 | 38.2% | 39.4% | 34.3% – 44.7% |
| 66 | Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 203 | 38.9% | 39.4% | 35.2% – 43.5% |
| 67 | Nyheim Hines◦ provisional | IND | RB | 56 | 37.5% | 39.3% | 34.0% – 44.7% |
| 68 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 148 | 38.5% | 39.2% | 34.8% – 43.8% |
| 69 | Austin Walter◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 26 | 34.6% | 39.2% | 33.5% – 45.0% |
| 70 | Eno Benjamin◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 34 | 35.3% | 39.1% | 33.6% – 44.8% |
| 71 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | LV | RB | 63 | 36.5% | 39.0% | 33.8% – 44.3% |
| 72 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 79 | 36.7% | 38.9% | 33.8% – 44.0% |
| 73 | Adrian Peterson◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 38 | 34.2% | 38.8% | 33.4% – 44.5% |
| 74 | Royce Freeman◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 56 | 35.7% | 38.8% | 33.6% – 44.2% |
| 75 | Alex Collins◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 108 | 37.0% | 38.8% | 34.0% – 43.6% |
| 76 | Rashaad Penny◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 119 | 37.0% | 38.7% | 34.0% – 43.4% |
| 77 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 55 | 34.5% | 38.6% | 33.3% – 44.0% |
| 78 | Le'Veon Bell◦ provisional | TB | RB | 40 | 32.5% | 38.5% | 33.0% – 44.0% |
| 79 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 61 | 34.4% | 38.4% | 33.2% – 43.8% |
| 80 | Chris Evans◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 17 | 23.5% | 38.4% | 32.6% – 44.3% |
| 81 | Corey Clement◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 33 | 30.3% | 38.3% | 32.8% – 44.0% |
| 82 | Joshua Kelley◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 33 | 30.3% | 38.3% | 32.8% – 44.0% |
| 83 | Wayne Gallman◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 28 | 28.6% | 38.3% | 32.7% – 44.0% |
| 84 | Marlon Mack◦ provisional | IND | RB | 28 | 28.6% | 38.3% | 32.7% – 44.0% |
| 85 | Benny Snell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 36 | 30.6% | 38.3% | 32.8% – 43.9% |
| 86 | Ke'Shawn Vaughn◦ provisional | TB | RB | 36 | 30.6% | 38.3% | 32.8% – 43.9% |
| 87 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 172 | 36.6% | 38.2% | 34.0% – 42.6% |
| 88 | Saquon Barkley◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 162 | 36.4% | 38.2% | 33.9% – 42.6% |
| 89 | Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | 220 | 36.8% | 38.1% | 34.1% – 42.2% |
| 90 | Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 241 | 36.9% | 38.1% | 34.2% – 42.1% |
| 91 | Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 307 | 37.1% | 38.1% | 34.5% – 41.8% |
| 92 | Mike Davis◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 138 | 35.5% | 37.9% | 33.4% – 42.5% |
| 93 | David Montgomery | CHI | RB | 225 | 36.4% | 37.9% | 33.9% – 42.0% |
| 94 | D'Onta Foreman◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 133 | 35.3% | 37.9% | 33.4% – 42.5% |
| 95 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 33 | 27.3% | 37.8% | 32.3% – 43.5% |
| 96 | Jeremy McNichols◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 41 | 29.3% | 37.8% | 32.4% – 43.4% |
| 97 | Devin Singletary | BUF | RB | 188 | 35.6% | 37.6% | 33.5% – 41.9% |
| 98 | J.J. Taylor◦ provisional | NE | RB | 19 | 15.8% | 37.5% | 31.7% – 43.3% |
| 99 | Dare Ogunbowale◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 44 | 27.3% | 37.3% | 31.9% – 42.8% |
| 100 | Larry Rountree III◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 36 | 25.0% | 37.3% | 31.8% – 42.9% |
| 101 | Ameer Abdullah◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 51 | 27.5% | 37.0% | 31.7% – 42.4% |
| 102 | Tony Jones◦ provisional | NO | RB | 54 | 27.8% | 37.0% | 31.7% – 42.3% |
| 103 | Salvon Ahmed◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 54 | 25.9% | 36.5% | 31.3% – 41.9% |
| 104 | Alexander Mattison◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 135 | 31.9% | 36.3% | 31.8% – 40.9% |
| 105 | Myles Gaskin | MIA | RB | 173 | 30.6% | 35.2% | 31.0% – 39.5% |
| 106 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 153 | 29.4% | 34.9% | 30.6% – 39.3% |
| 107 | Phillip Lindsay◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 88 | 25.0% | 34.8% | 30.0% – 39.7% |
| 108 | Mark Ingram◦ provisional | NO | RB | 160 | 28.7% | 34.5% | 30.2% – 38.8% |
| 109 | David Johnson◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 67 | 19.4% | 34.1% | 29.1% – 39.2% |
| 110 | D'Andre Swift◦ provisional | DET | RB | 151 | 27.2% | 33.9% | 29.6% – 38.3% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).