NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Dropback success rate · 2021
Share of dropbacks (incl. sacks & scrambles) with positive EPA.
- Beats raw by
- 15.6%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 5.5% → 4.6%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.47
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 230
- dropbacks to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Dropback success rate · 2021 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | dropbacks | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 688 | 51.7% | 50.1% | 47.4% – 52.8% |
| 2 | Tom Brady | TB | QB | 740 | 50.8% | 49.5% | 46.9% – 52.1% |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 631 | 50.2% | 48.9% | 46.1% – 51.7% |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | 559 | 50.3% | 48.8% | 45.9% – 51.7% |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 634 | 50.0% | 48.7% | 45.9% – 51.5% |
| 6 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 709 | 49.5% | 48.5% | 45.8% – 51.1% |
| 7 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 514 | 49.6% | 48.3% | 45.3% – 51.3% |
| 8 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 675 | 49.2% | 48.2% | 45.5% – 50.9% |
| 9 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | QB | 469 | 49.3% | 47.9% | 44.8% – 51.0% |
| 10 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 571 | 48.5% | 47.6% | 44.7% – 50.5% |
| 11 | Mac Jones | NE | QB | 550 | 48.4% | 47.4% | 44.5% – 50.4% |
| 12 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | 578 | 48.3% | 47.4% | 44.5% – 50.3% |
| 13 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 409 | 48.4% | 47.3% | 44.0% – 50.5% |
| 14 | Josh Johnson◦ provisional | BAL | QB | 88 | 52.3% | 47.2% | 42.6% – 51.8% |
| 15 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 421 | 48.0% | 47.0% | 43.8% – 50.2% |
| 16 | Mike White◦ provisional | NYJ | QB | 137 | 49.6% | 46.9% | 42.6% – 51.2% |
| 17 | Joe Flacco◦ provisional | NYJ | QB | 44 | 54.5% | 46.7% | 41.8% – 51.7% |
| 18 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | QB | 460 | 47.2% | 46.5% | 43.4% – 49.7% |
| 19 | Derek Carr | LV | QB | 666 | 46.7% | 46.3% | 43.6% – 49.1% |
| 20 | Colt McCoy◦ provisional | ARI | QB | 105 | 48.6% | 46.3% | 41.8% – 50.8% |
| 21 | Case Keenum◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 77 | 49.4% | 46.3% | 41.6% – 51.0% |
| 22 | Nick Foles◦ provisional | CHI | QB | 40 | 50.0% | 46.0% | 41.0% – 50.9% |
| 23 | Gardner Minshew◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 66 | 47.0% | 45.6% | 40.9% – 50.4% |
| 24 | Matt Ryan | ATL | QB | 601 | 45.8% | 45.6% | 42.8% – 48.5% |
| 25 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 529 | 45.6% | 45.5% | 42.5% – 48.4% |
| 26 | Cooper Rush◦ provisional | DAL | QB | 50 | 46.0% | 45.4% | 40.5% – 50.3% |
| 27 | Nick Mullens◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 29 | 44.8% | 45.2% | 40.1% – 50.3% |
| 28 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | 587 | 45.1% | 45.2% | 42.3% – 48.0% |
| 29 | Jameis Winston◦ provisional | NO | QB | 172 | 44.2% | 44.8% | 40.7% – 48.9% |
| 30 | Carson Wentz | IND | QB | 552 | 44.2% | 44.5% | 41.6% – 47.4% |
| 31 | Trey Lance◦ provisional | SF | QB | 75 | 41.3% | 44.3% | 39.6% – 49.0% |
| 32 | Mason Rudolph◦ provisional | PIT | QB | 57 | 40.4% | 44.3% | 39.5% – 49.1% |
| 33 | Garrett Gilbert◦ provisional | WAS | QB | 33 | 36.4% | 44.1% | 39.1% – 49.2% |
| 34 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | QB | 532 | 43.6% | 44.1% | 41.1% – 47.1% |
| 35 | Russell Wilson | SEA | QB | 435 | 43.5% | 44.1% | 40.9% – 47.3% |
| 36 | Davis Mills | HOU | QB | 424 | 43.4% | 44.0% | 40.9% – 47.3% |
| 37 | Tim Boyle◦ provisional | DET | QB | 95 | 41.0% | 44.0% | 39.5% – 48.6% |
| 38 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 636 | 43.5% | 44.0% | 41.2% – 46.8% |
| 39 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 459 | 43.4% | 44.0% | 40.9% – 47.1% |
| 40 | Geno Smith◦ provisional | SEA | QB | 107 | 41.1% | 43.9% | 39.5% – 48.4% |
| 41 | Andy Dalton | CHI | QB | 256 | 42.6% | 43.8% | 40.2% – 47.5% |
| 42 | Jacoby Brissett | MIA | QB | 244 | 42.2% | 43.7% | 40.0% – 47.4% |
| 43 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | QB | 462 | 42.9% | 43.6% | 40.6% – 46.8% |
| 44 | Jordan Love◦ provisional | GB | QB | 66 | 37.9% | 43.6% | 38.9% – 48.4% |
| 45 | Trevor Siemian◦ provisional | NO | QB | 201 | 41.3% | 43.4% | 39.5% – 47.3% |
| 46 | Sean Mannion◦ provisional | MIN | QB | 38 | 31.6% | 43.3% | 38.4% – 48.3% |
| 47 | PJ Walker◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 73 | 37.0% | 43.3% | 38.6% – 48.0% |
| 48 | Tyrod Taylor◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 162 | 40.1% | 43.1% | 39.0% – 47.3% |
| 49 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 383 | 41.8% | 43.1% | 39.8% – 46.4% |
| 50 | Drew Lock◦ provisional | DEN | QB | 119 | 38.7% | 43.0% | 38.7% – 47.4% |
| 51 | Tyler Huntley◦ provisional | BAL | QB | 205 | 40.0% | 42.8% | 38.9% – 46.7% |
| 52 | Ian Book◦ provisional | NO | QB | 28 | 21.4% | 42.7% | 37.6% – 47.8% |
| 53 | Justin Fields | CHI | QB | 304 | 40.1% | 42.3% | 38.8% – 45.9% |
| 54 | Cam Newton◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 137 | 37.2% | 42.3% | 38.0% – 46.5% |
| 55 | Brandon Allen◦ provisional | CIN | QB | 38 | 23.7% | 42.2% | 37.3% – 47.2% |
| 56 | Sam Darnold | CAR | QB | 442 | 40.3% | 42.0% | 38.9% – 45.1% |
| 57 | Jake Fromm◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 66 | 28.8% | 41.6% | 36.9% – 46.3% |
| 58 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | QB | 646 | 39.3% | 40.9% | 38.1% – 43.6% |
| 59 | Mike Glennon◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 174 | 35.1% | 40.8% | 36.9% – 44.9% |
| 60 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | QB | 429 | 36.4% | 39.5% | 36.4% – 42.6% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).